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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 05-04-2017, 05:47 AM   #1
fortisque
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Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

1K/4K/8K blinds. $1500 MTT with around 30 left out of 800 starting runners. Average stack is around 250K and we have around 350K. Remaining field is a mix of some very good pros and also quite a few recs, we have good table draw with quite a few recs on our table (easiest table reamining out of 4 for sure) and 2 regs on our direct right.

Lojack, middle aged not too many reads but seems recreational shoves for about 140000 (17BB), pretty large shove. Solid reg button rejams for around 275K pretty quickly after about 20 seconds. SB asks for a count of both of the stacks and moves all in having us covered with about 500K. Hero has QQ in the Big blind. What the hell do we do here?

Lojack should be pretty pair heavy with lots of Broadway cards, Button probably has 88+,AQ+ and SB should have a range of JJ+,AK (maybe TT?). We have 47% against JJ+,AK range and 52% against TT+,AK range. We should be crushing Lojack and Button's range. But the spot will be hugely high variance and we'll lose out on all future +EV opportunities.

Do we call off? What do we do with AKo/AKs here?
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Old 05-04-2017, 08:03 AM   #2
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

Call. SB can have AK & JJ and we are getting pot odds multiway to hit a set. Fold AKs and probably JJ.

Last edited by betgo; 05-04-2017 at 08:16 AM.
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Old 05-04-2017, 09:01 AM   #3
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

Just fold
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Old 05-04-2017, 10:59 AM   #4
lolposting2016
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

Seems like a fold
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Old 05-04-2017, 12:41 PM   #5
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

cryfold and then watch them show AK AK and 77 and the board run clean.
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Old 05-04-2017, 06:05 PM   #6
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

Here's my POV:
First off it's highly unlikely you are over a 50% favorite in this multi way pot, do you still wanna risk it? You have plenty of room with your stack and I'm not calling with anything other than AA here. KK would be difficult too. Secondly, how good are you playing? I may call with QQ here if I feel I am outclassed by most of the players left, but by the sound of it, you have a good table and can outwit these recs without pushing and praying. I would almost always fold here.
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Old 05-04-2017, 06:05 PM   #7
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

And don't tell anyone what you're folding...
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Old 05-04-2017, 07:10 PM   #8
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

I did rough calculations and you are about 35% to win 4-way with QQ, 27% with JJ, 23% with AKs, and 44% with KK. You are worse against the players with more chips, so it is somewhat worse than that in chip EV.

There is a significant ICM effect at this stage, which is hard to measure exactly. There is also an advantage to a big stack. It may depend somewhat on how well you play a big or shorter stack and how great your skill advantage is. I would not fold QQ. The call is too cEV+, and if you win, you usually get a top place. Folding KK would just be awful. JJ/AKs are fairly easy folds.
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Old 05-04-2017, 07:46 PM   #9
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

Yeah I would never fold KK. I'm stunned that AKs only has 23% equity, I personally thought it would be higher than JJ and definitely not as low as 23%.
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Old 05-04-2017, 08:22 PM   #10
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

Quote:
Originally Posted by fortisque View Post
Yeah I would never fold KK. I'm stunned that AKs only has 23% equity, I personally thought it would be higher than JJ and definitely not as low as 23%.
I made a mistake AKo is 23%, but AKs is 25% according to my assumed ranges. In any case, AKs/JJ are clear folds with a skill advantage. KK is a ridiculously easy call.
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Old 05-04-2017, 09:25 PM   #11
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

I would fold here 40+BB deep
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Old 05-05-2017, 01:37 AM   #12
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

I busted with KK in a multi way pot in the WSOP TWICE, one time final 70 deep in money. Other time right outside the money in a circuit event. My only regret on both those hands were that I OVER INVESTED CHIPS ON PRE FLOP ALL IN's W/PLENTY BB's WHERE I WAS A TOP PLAYER. Going all in pre takes away from a lot of skill. GL
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Old 05-05-2017, 01:17 PM   #13
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

Folding happily
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Old 05-05-2017, 03:20 PM   #14
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

yup, too many blinds left at this stage to be stacking off with this action ahead of you. fold and don't tell anyone
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Old 05-05-2017, 07:48 PM   #15
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

Quote:
Originally Posted by LavGray View Post
I busted with KK in a multi way pot in the WSOP TWICE, one time final 70 deep in money. Other time right outside the money in a circuit event. My only regret on both those hands were that I OVER INVESTED CHIPS ON PRE FLOP ALL IN's W/PLENTY BB's WHERE I WAS A TOP PLAYER. Going all in pre takes away from a lot of skill. GL
QQ here is one thing, but you can't fold KK multiway. That is throwing away way to much cEV. You sometimes have to win flips to take top places in tournaments.
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Old 05-05-2017, 09:46 PM   #16
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

Fold cause betgo says call
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Old 05-06-2017, 05:11 AM   #17
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

Yeah i will nitfold, even tho this will prob be for the chip lead/build up a big stack and have a chance to win the whole thing/make FT.
Sick spot for sure.
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Old 05-06-2017, 01:14 PM   #18
ynach
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

This is pretty far from a sick spot, fold.
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Old 05-06-2017, 11:45 PM   #19
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

SICK
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Old 05-07-2017, 04:03 AM   #20
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

Quote:
Originally Posted by ynach View Post
This is pretty far from a sick spot, fold.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RalphWaldoEmerson View Post
SICK
Don´t be those guys
Spoiler:

Last edited by OutPlayU27; 05-07-2017 at 04:05 AM. Reason: it´s not like is UTG vs MP vs BU....
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Old 05-08-2017, 02:58 PM   #21
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Re: Sick Spot with QQ $1500 Live MTT preflop 3 all ins in front of us

Interesting spot. I think I am calling QQ here. I would probably fold JJ this deep as described.

I think this is a huge chance to accumulate chips.
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