btw we were on the bubble. top 98 pays and 103 left. im chip leader.

https://www.boomplayer.com/28034980_F7352D7701

so, V shoved with either full house or weaker flush? I guess that the number of combos in each group can be easily calculated :
FH : 22, 88, Q2, Q8 : 18 combos
Flush : basically any 2 of 8 spades which is 28 combos

pot odds are ±2.5 : 1

Looks like hero should call the turn, no?

I would not put all Q2 combos in bb defending range and 88 should shove pre often so fh combos are closer to 10 than 18 here. They are also being bet ott some % of the time so he has even less than that otr.

Also I’m not sure all flushes are 3betting river when we raise. At least they shouldn’t.

I still agree with your conclusion to call though. We are 3 combos away from the top of our range and A3ss is obviously better call than AKss,AJss etc. Also we don’t have those hands here much if at all either.

Right! I haven't noticed that V had only 15BB pre, so 88 is not in FH combos and KQs probably is not in flush combos.....

do you think V 3bets 22 on the river though?

I mean, you should literally never have the nut flush here since villian would 100% expect you to bet that on the flop. Any reads on villian? I would absolutely never, ever, ever, fold this river with this action. Depending on villian, I've seen people show up with all sorts of stuff in this spot, including just a naked queen. His range here includes a ton of stuff that you beat. And given the price you're given, super easy call. Even on the bubble.

Bet flop. Bet turn. Call river.

You have a big stack. Put it to use when you have a big hand on the bubble. But I think instead you fell victim to Fancy Play syndrome.

The only reason to forgo the continuation bet is to get all his chips in there on a later street. Yet when he obliges you fold. The ask is 5k more into a pot that is 25k if you call. I think there is a somewhat better chance than one-in-five that you are good here.

In fact I think you will see a heck of a lot more of hands like A-x, Q-J worse flushes bluffs etc than you will see the Full House that you convinced yourself that he has.

Look at your play from his POV. You raised pre and then checked two streets, and made a very timid little raise of his river bet.

I'm pretty sure he assumes that your pre-flop raise was not based on your cards but rather betting your late position and stack size, in order to abuse the bubble. Then you don't c-bet, and also check back the turn. When you put out that little raise on the river, he thinks you have nothing and are making a weak attempt to push him off the hand, so he is happy to stack off, assuming you will fold. He never had any reason to think that you had much of a hand.

I don't think you should fold when your hand is so under-represented. You played the hand like you had nothing, not like you had an A-high flush.

Played fine until river...I like flop check...shove over river lead...only reason to raise to this lol size would be to include all ur Qx which needs to bet turn...

After the 3bet super easy call needing to be goot ~27% of the time.

Yeah never ever ever ever ever folding the nut flush here to someone who started the hand 15 BB deep. Also, it is not like the bubble is important for our stack here either. We dramatically underrepped our hand, so simply no way to fold now. I would expect to win well over half of the time, and we don't need anywhere near half to make this a call.

Pre is fine. Flop is meh, I think deeper we can check back mostly but this shallow leans towards a bet. At this SPR villain should be ok with stacking off with TP, so the fact is he can easily have many flushes or even Qx, so this is a trivial call.

I think the check on the flop is fine, You want to mix it up a little bit. If he has air, he will fold. If he has a better Ace, then he is probably not going to be folding.

I think the crux of the hand is how often does villain raise your raise without having a full house here?

I would say given pot odds its call. People spazz out and sometimes overplay their hand. The villain might just think you are FOS and decide to bluff.

I think he should. Idk if this villain does so. Hero shouldn’t have more than 3 fh combos here. Villain shouldn’t have 22 here much though because it’s mostly a vbet ott. Although unblocking Qx is kind of cool if we want to c/r ott some vs villains delayed cbetting range.

That autolevel tho gg