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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 05-12-2017, 06:53 PM   #1
srfcjay
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Sick river spot in the 27 scoop event. Opinion

Like to get people's opinion on a hand I just played in the 27 scoop 6-max zoom.
Utg. Raises 2.5x he has 110bb
I'm on the btn with QTdd and call I am the effective stack with 90bbs.
BB also calls he covers both of us with 115bb.

Flop comes 954 with 1 diamond.
Utg cbets for 45% pot. I decide to float with 2 overs and a back door flush draw and can also pick up some straight draws on the turn to pick up equity. Also a lot of Utgs range miss this flop A high K highs etc.
BB also decides to come along.

Turn comes the 3 of diamonds giving me a FD now. Checks to me and I fire 65% pot after picking up equity and the BB calls and UTG folds.

River comes the Kd giving me the second nut flush. Bb checks and I bet about 60% pot and the BB shoves and I call. Before I post the results of the hand I'd like to get people's opinions and what they take the BB can have on this river.
Few points about my thoughts about his range on the river.
1. When I bet the river I expect to get called be all his 2 pair combos K9,54 etc, sets and straights.
2. When he check shoves I'm thinking on this river his sets and straights check call so I don't think he has these hands. Also I think most his sets and straights raise turn anyways.
3. I also think worse flushes then mine also check call and what flushes can he ever make it to the river with here the way the action went.
4. As far as bluffs go I have no info on this player and do not know if he has any bluffs here. If he does I think the only hands he can turn into bluffs here are A9,A4,A5 with the Ace of diamonds blocking the nut flush other then that I don't see many.

What what yous do in this spot.
Would like to hear people's opinion.
Thank you
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Old 05-13-2017, 12:14 AM   #2
cicakman
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Re: Sick river spot in the 27 scoop event. Opinion

Is the 9 a diamond?
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Old 05-13-2017, 12:48 PM   #3
gregz41
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Re: Sick river spot in the 27 scoop event. Opinion

I'm getting stacked if I'm beat here.
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:42 PM   #4
2pairsof2s
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Re: Sick river spot in the 27 scoop event. Opinion

I don't like the flop float much. Say you hit a pair and opener bets out. Are you going to like your hand enough to call off against an unknown villain? I just read something in another thread about Ted Forrest assuming unknown opponents are strong, rather than assuming they are weak. That may apply here.

Once you chose to float the rest of the hand plays itself. ie: yes, you bet the turn when he checks (I would bet most turn cards for the fold equity if villain checks,) yes you have more than showdown value on river so bet it, yes I would make a crying call on the all-in.
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Old 05-13-2017, 02:26 PM   #5
zanardi1
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Re: Sick river spot in the 27 scoop event. Opinion

Quote:
Originally Posted by gregz41 View Post
I'm getting stacked if I'm beat here.
+1 obv
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Old 05-14-2017, 01:02 PM   #6
Mr.Slip
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Re: Sick river spot in the 27 scoop event. Opinion

Quote:
Originally Posted by zanardi1 View Post
+1 obv
+100 !! c'mon man, you're scared so much of one hand (nut flush) that you over analyze it looking for what isnt there....

all-in for you every time on this............
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Old 05-15-2017, 04:02 AM   #7
FU_UIGEA
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Re: Sick river spot in the 27 scoop event. Opinion

Despite whatever results I'm not a fan of the flop float multiway. HU I think is fine and as far as the river I'm GII with this line. Was the 9 a D? cause A9dd is all he can really have here if he's thinking beyond level 1.
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Old 05-16-2017, 07:17 AM   #8
johnyarmless
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Re: Sick river spot in the 27 scoop event. Opinion

Quote:
Originally Posted by srfcjay View Post
1. When I bet the river I expect to get called be all his 2 pair combos K9,54 etc, sets and straights.
2. When he check shoves I'm thinking on this river his sets and straights check call so I don't think he has these hands. Also I think most his sets and straights raise turn anyways.
3. I also think worse flushes then mine also check call and what flushes can he ever make it to the river with here the way the action went.
4. As far as bluffs go I have no info on this player and do not know if he has any bluffs here. If he does I think the only hands he can turn into bluffs here are A9,A4,A5 with the Ace of diamonds blocking the nut flush other then that I don't see many.
1 - There is no set that he doesnt raise OTT and almost no two pairs as well, except K9s exactly (number of combos depends if 9 is a d or not)

2- The only combo that makes sense for him to bluff here is A9s with the Ad exactly (three combos). The A4 and A5 with the Ad are good candidates for a Turn bluff, not river, since he doesnt have much SD Equity in MW pot (still MW on his action).

3 - You're right, he only x/calls with all his smaller bluffs

- All in all, he check shove range OTR is HIGHLY skewed towards the nut flush, which he has almost all combos (exept maybe AdKd and AdQd). Clear fold for me. Well played until there, river is a bet/fold spot easily.

Last edited by johnyarmless; 05-16-2017 at 07:22 AM.
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Old 05-17-2017, 05:00 PM   #9
srfcjay
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Re: Sick river spot in the 27 scoop event. Opinion

He had A9dd. Looking back on the hand I don't like the flop float. I think everything else after is standerd
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