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Shoving close to a big bubble Shoving close to a big bubble

08-11-2018 , 03:04 PM
The bubble is 3x. and we were only 3 people away (around 50-60 people getting paid) How can i calculate the ICM effect?
I use holdem resources btw. Getting in the money is like getting 10 big blinds with the blinds like this. Even Aces only give 5bb on average. So what kind of edge should i look for?

888 Poker - 700/1400 Ante 175 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 52.17 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 17.76, 3Bet Preflop: 2.50, Hands: 109)
SB: 26.32 BB (VPIP: 16.88, PFR: 9.33, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 77)
BB: 41.99 BB (VPIP: 17.32, PFR: 10.70, 3Bet Preflop: 4.64, Hands: 668)
UTG: 14.71 BB (VPIP: 23.73, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 59)
UTG+1: 31.22 BB (VPIP: 15.99, PFR: 9.36, 3Bet Preflop: 4.03, Hands: 345)
Hero (MP): 10.43 BB
MP+1: 102.28 BB
CO: 19.31 BB (VPIP: 25.53, PFR: 15.96, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 94)

8 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has T K

fold, fold, Hero raises to 10.3 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

Hero wins 3.5 BB
Shoving close to a big bubble Quote
08-11-2018 , 03:29 PM
Given that you're the short stack, you can't really expect to fold into the money, even though you're close to the bubble. So I think this is a pretty standard jam.
Shoving close to a big bubble Quote
08-13-2018 , 01:42 PM
Huh? There are 55-65 players left, not just down to one table. Chances are good that there are several shorter stacks. I think shoving KTo with 11 BB into 5 players, 4 of whom easily cover us when we are 3 players off of a 3xbuyin bubble has to be torching $$.
Shoving close to a big bubble Quote
08-13-2018 , 04:44 PM
Avg. stack size at our table is around 40 BBs. Assuming it's close to that at other tables, we're likely one of shortest stacks if not the shortest, and it could still be a while before someone busts. I don't know how quickly blinds are escalating, but it feels to me like if we don't get it in here, we'll likely have to get it in in a worse spot before the bubble bursts.
Shoving close to a big bubble Quote
08-13-2018 , 05:52 PM
Def a bad shove . Think I'd want KQs min
Shoving close to a big bubble Quote

      
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