So I have a friend playing in a $1600 Vegas event and there was a texting discussing with a group about his bustout hand.

He's sitting with a bunch of pros at his table and he's basically been blinding down. He gets ATo in MP and open-shoves.

I suggested the option of opening something like 2.2x, which provides him with options depending on what happens (and also depending on the stacks and players behind). It could entice a weaker hand to shove, or there could be a call and squeeze, etc.

So far everyone else on the texting exchange is defending the shove and saying there really isn't another play there. I don't think shoving is bad, but it is the higher variance way to play it. A 16bb shove there really only gets called by worse hands.

Thoughts?

If he is sitting with a bunch of pros, his skill level is probably on the low side versus the table. So using a high-variance style can be to his advantage.

If you think you have a skill edge on your opponents then you want to keep variance low and count on outplaying your foes. Conversely, If you feel that you are being outplayed, then variance is your friend, and you want to create high-variance situations for your foes to deal with. A few well timed shoves can force the villains to play more defensively, negating skill advantage.

It's true that if he pushes and gets called he will be behind or flipping. But he's not really deep enough to screw around, so his options are probably limited to push or fold anyway.

ATo from MP at 16BB (assuming antes) is actually somewhat close to the bottom of your shoving range. While I agree with the concept of gambling more when you're at a skill disavantage, I also think using the bottom of your shoving range as bet/folds is also ok. ATo might be a bit too good to utilize that strategy with, but it's not outrageous either.

Shoving and 2.2/decide are both reasonable. While nothing worse likely calls your shove (BB may call slightly worse aces on occasion), we also often get folds from hands like 55 or KQ that may 3bet our 2.2x and put us to a decision or have us take a flip. Gotta remember that shoving and winning 2.5 BB when we have 16 isn't a bad result.

It is a bit of an awkward stack size, as 14x seems an easy shove, and 18x seems an easy 2.2/decide.

I get the point about reducing the number of tough decisions when playing against better players. But what leans me towards the 2.2/decide line is that it allows some other things to occur that might actually make the decisions easier. For example:

1) One of the aggressive pros decides to bully the amateur by 3-betting/shoving a worse hand;

2) We might get called and see a flop with a hand that plays very well in a low SPR spot;

3) Maybe there is a call and then a squeeze, and we can either fold or call off with more dead money in the pot.

The shove is risking 16bb to pick up blinds and antes, and we're always behind if called.

Fold is better than 2.2x

One problem is that this isn't that exciting. For example, say villain would fold KJs but instead decides to 3bet/stack off against us. Let's look at this example, ignoring other players for now, and assuming that if we shove we win, and if we minraise, we play for our stack against KJs.

If we shove, we gain 2.5BB, so our expected stack is 18.5 BB and our risk of busting is 0%.

If we play for stacks against KJs, we have 56.3% equity, and the pot will be 34.5 BB, best case, which assumes KJs isn't in the blinds. That means our expected stack is 19.4 BB and our risk of busting is 43.4%. I don't know that adding the extra 0.9 BB is worth the 43% chance of busting.

If KJs is the BB, our expected stack is 18.8 BB, basically no improvement over shoving uncontested.

If we give our opponent 55 instead of KJs, we have 46.5% equity, meaning our expected stack is 16BB if 55 isn't in the blinds, and 15.6BB if 55 is the big blind. So worse than shoving by a decent factor, and adds a 53.3% chance of busting.

Why? Are we ripping our entire range here?

@Black Aces the analysis is way more complex than that. If you want to do a proper ev calculation, you would have to (1) estimate the odds of everyone folding to our shove; and (2) estimate the range of a player who might shove over our 2.2x and calculate our equity against that range. You can't just pick a single hand like KJs.

Wouldn't it be awesome (with a capital "A") if someone could develop software that could solve for these spots. Like, you could just input the variables (blinds, positions, stacks, etc) and it could spit out cEV and $EV results...

Someday...

Until then we can argue, debate and pontificate...

Wait...ah...n/m

I’m almost never 2.2 here unless I have aa or kk and want action. I feel this is a jam/ fold spot. I’m probably leaning toward fold but depending on Nash shove charts, I’m fine with shoving if it’s ok with Nash charts. I think a10o is a fold bc 16bbs is a little bit too much from mp. Would like jamming cutoff with 16bbs in an unopened pot with hand like this.

Obviously. I was just responding specifically to the point that we might induce jams by worse hands by opening 2.2 and showing that might not be as awesome as it sounds. Of course if our position and/or villain reads make it such that they will shove any Ax then inducing becomes better.

Also we need some hands to balance if we are 2.2x'ing AA and KK.

Push/fold charts and apps aren't designed for stacks as large as 16bb, they're designed for more typical shoving stacks of 10bb or less.

im waiting for someone to solve something as complex as 16bb shoves

this is obviously wrong; erc is talking about pio, aka his bible.

if you are outclassed by the whole table this is an easy shove. if they know you are worse they will attack your opens and you fold. raising and seeing a flop to cbet/get floated/fold isnt any better. just jam

push/fold up to 20bbs has been solved for like over a decade

thanks for posting

My view is that one should adjust the threshold for raise/push based on the number of players behind you. I basically start at 12 on the button and add one for each player in addition to the blinds that has to call me.

I think it is perfectly fine to have a raise only strategy with 15BB from the button, and a push only strategy from the first 3 positions.

The OP is right on the threshold. I actually think it is ok to just fold there. AT is just not as good as it looks, easily dominated, rarely dominating. AQ is a 100% push, AJ is probably a good push, AT, I'd just wait for better.

And thanks for your helpful contribution. I'm a recreational micro stakes player so I'm not quite as familiar with the more advanced programs.

I guess the way I was looking at it is that AT is strong enough that I wouldn't mind enticing someone to attack my open. I can see how getting called and seeing a flop can result in getting pushed off, but if I'm prepared to open shove I would also be prepared to commit on a wide range of flops.

Anyway, it sounds like most people advocate the shove against better opposition but there is also some agreement that this is a borderline spot. At 14bb it would be an easy shove, 18bb closer to an open/decide.

Would you also advocate shoving this hand on the BTN?

I would definitely raise 2.4x give or take, and happily call a jam from the button.

From button it's never a fold and shove or 2.2 are both viable. Depends on the players in the blinds and skill level as to which.

And the reasons for opening from the BTN but shoving from MP are:

1) The increased risk of getting called and having to play postflop when opening from MP; and

2) The increased likelihood of enticing a shove from a weaker hand when opening from the BTN?

No to '2', it is the increased likelihood that someone will jam that dominates us.

When we open from the BTN?