Quote:
Originally Posted by goldFishshark
You're really not thinking about this hand correctly. You're falling into the trap where you don't really think about what hands he could play this way and are instead just assuming he's a crazy spewer.
Here are my 2 cents:
Both players limp/call. HJ almost never has anything but a weak speculative hand--suited connectors, suited broadways, and weak pairs (2s-8s let's say). UTG could be trapping sometimes (which is pretty terrible anyway), so he has the occasional stronger hand in his range, but mostly suited connectors, suited broadways, and pairs.
On the flop, the only hands that hit the flop are 6s and 2s (for 4 combos), and say A6s, 65s 64s... etc. There really aren't any good draws, so the rest of the time the limpers will have overpairs or random junk. You will have mostly overpairs and the occasional A6s, but also a lot of junk.
If you really want to decide whether or not to shove here, you have to think about what villain could be check/raising with. Maybe he's doing it with a weak overpair (7s+). Do you really think he's check/raising this dry board with quads or a full house? Even trips? The only further problem is, will villain interpret your 3bet jam also as a bluff? You'll play people who are hyper aggressive in these spots, who will check/raise with Ax and then flat your 3bet with A-high.
Here you are much better off checking behind and hoping to turn a good card or betting really small, on the order of quarter pot. The reason for betting small is that you're going to have a lot of bluffs here, but you're also going to have a lot of thin value bets. If you bet small, your opponents are forced to call with some A-high hands (hands your thin value bets beat), etc., otherwise you could bet any 2 cards for an immediate profit.
I don't mind going for a small bet here, since you do have a gutshot. But you have to be cognizant that you really don't have many hands that can bet for value here. Villain knows this and is exploiting the fact that you are most like over-bluffing in this spot. Checking is good here also because you are often going to have overcards that still have equity that you'd also like to check behind.
Of course I thought about all the hands he could play here. I knew he was weak he was never trapping with a big hand he had a pair of random air that’s what my mind was on. If he had a big hand then gg my read was that he was not trapping at all.
Also pot was pot was 28.2k so I think 11k is a good and small enough bet
Also I have plenty for value when I’m squeezing I can have 77+ And even ace high will be good here a lot.
Checking here I don’t agree with I have 5 high I wanna cbet and take it down. Guys will lead any turn and just put me on Ak here. I have a good understanding of how this field plays it’s just this guy I’d never seen before
Also yes I did think he may think the 3bet would be seen as a bluff and he might just call with a pair. That’s why I folded really. But my 3 bet shove puts pressure on his whole range here I think
Last edited by Stephen17; 09-15-2018 at 01:30 PM.