This is a $55 tourney on Bovada.

PokerStars - 40/80 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 5,160 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP+1: 5,140 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP+2: 2,095 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
CO: 5,000 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BTN: 4,720 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
SB: 8,630 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BB: 5,120 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
UTG: 4,646 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
Hero (UTG+1): 5,418

SB posts SB 40, BB posts BB 80

Pre Flop: (pot: 120) Hero has A J

UTG calls 80, Hero raises to 260, fold, fold, MP+2 calls 260, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 180

Flop: (900, 3 players) 5 Q 5
UTG checks, Hero bets 450, MP+2 calls 450, UTG raises to 1,060, [color=red]Hero raises to 5,158 and is all-in


Few reads with only 7 hands on V but he's shaping up to be a typical loose passive fishy station. From what I've seen these guys can be limping something like {QQ-22,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54 s,43s,32s,A9o+,A5o,KJo+,QJo,JTo,T9o} and once someone else calls they're almost never folding (or 3betting). (BTW I realize my sizing pre is too small)

If you plug that range into Equilab you'll see that V can have trips or better 7% of the time, but he's also equally as likely to have a worse club draw, and he also has a smattering of Qx (we're doing pretty good vs Qx), I've seen mid pocket pairs played this way before, and more than half of his range is Ax or worse. On Bovada, V's small sizing could maybe be a spaz with worse clubs or total air, no? There's just so much air and worse draws in his range relative to the nuts that he doesn't have to be x/r often with air or a worse draw for his range to be pretty heavily populated with these combos.


Do you think we have enough fold equity and hot/cold equity to go with it here?

Given description of UTG as a station it is hard to believe UTG would fold with Qx to a shove (which is polarizing). Also hard to see UTG c/r with a hand worse than Qx given how small the raise was vs 2 opponents and his description as passive.

I would expect to see 5x a good part of the time.

Given that we have position and there is another player in I would just call the flop raise and decide on the turn based on bet sizing. If MP+2 raises then I would shove.

Checking to see the turn for free would be a no-brainer for me here vs a loose station

X flop is def an option. However I think betting is higher EV and here's why:

I'm crushing their ranges equity-wise and I plan on doing a lot of barreling (any club, A, K, J, T) and expect to get folds OTT quite often. So I think we gain significant EV from betting in at least four ways:

1. From the times we successful set up a double barrel bluff

2. From the times we actually improve (all the cards that improve us are action killers, betting flop ensures we get at least one street of value when we improve)

3. From pure value (his worse FDs, small # of combos but not insignificant)

4. From immediate equity denial (even though it's slim his air has like ~10% equity and folding that out via a cbet is not insignificant for our EV, plus he doesn't always call pairs OTF hands like 22-44 at least may fold and folding out a pair is a huge win for us)

Not opening ourselves up to nasty x/r spots is definitely something to consider, but if V is only x/r the nuts then it's easy to put together our responding to x/r strategy. And it V x/r wider than the nuts, we can print by stacking off.

You say ‘his’ and ‘villian’, but there are three of you in the hand. I just wouldn’t want to put most of my stack on the line in a hand that we’re more likely finishing with ace high. Especially having already been 3betted and with two opponents in the hand. I’d like to see turn and river as cheaply as possible and not blow up a pot that we’re not certain at all to win.

It’s not advice and I’m by no means an expert but it’s just how I would play the hand in this situation.

bet flop is def good.
call the raise and see a turn, you don't have too much FE with a shove and V can have 5x no problem by your own admission.

mate I respectfully disagree with all 3 points here

we have decent equity in a 3-way pot against V ranges that both include 5x, but this pot could get bloated really quickly and either blow us off our equity or force a -EV call against 5x.

we rep 5x poorly, even if we know it's in range our opponents will heavily discount 5x in our range and be delighted to see AJ when they call - amused by our protestations that we "most definitely had 5x in range and they made a poor decision"

however, once we've bet the flop, jamming will likely fold out better (pp's, Qx), see some worse flushes call, and have at least some equity v 5x. otoh if we b/c the flop we're handing all initiative to V who can then barrel safe turns - even with the KcTc type stuff.

i want to play these hands very quietly and accelerate a little only when A or c hits the board. it may be a personal preference and non-optimal, but i've busted too often against sticky opponents in these spots who discount 5x and deduce i'm either drawing or fos.

imho: c/decide > bet/shove > bet/call