1 hour into the main. 75-150 blinds. We have 45k, villain around 60k.

UTG+1 raises to 400. Villain calls UTG+2. We call with 88 on the button. SB calls.

Flop K87. Checks to us, we bet 1200 into 1750. SB and Villain both call.

Turn 9. Checks to us, we bet 3200. SB tanks a while and folds. Villain check raises to 12,000.

Villain: 50s, glasses, beanie with skulls on it, Ed Hardy t-shirt, giant watch. We haven't seen him show down a hand yet, but he did take down another pot with a large flop check raise, and we played a pot where he took a pretty weird line (raise, called a 3 bet, led flop, check called turn, led river on T55TA). My instinct is that this opponent would likely overvalue two pair or a pair + straight/flush draw. And could have 56, and some JT/99/77.

How do we proceed?

Fold to Mike Dentale. He has JTs.

You have outs. But sounds like you re not going to get paid even if you hit. Plus this hand is going to get expensive quick.

we call, obviously

On the flop I'd heavily discount Kx+ or flush draws from a weird, splashy villain like this. Once the original raiser checks to him, he should be betting all of that at a very high frequency. Possibly even check/raising flush draws or 2 pair+ hands.

So on the turn it looks a lot like he has 65. 99 and JT are also non-zero possibilities. There's only one combo of 98s and two combos of 97s left... and I'm not as confident that he would get here and then take this line with those hands. It really looks like SB folded a king, if so that's one of your outs gone if he does have the straight.

The only other possibility in the back of my mind is whether or not he's turning a hand like T9 or J9 or maybe even TT into a weird merge bluff? That would be very unusual and I'm not sure there's enough info here to suggest he would go for that, but you seem to think that there is and you could be right.

I guess my conclusion is that calling is never that bad, but there may be enough here to justify folding. You're only getting a little better than 2:1 on a call and you're about a 4:1 dog against his most likely hand. It's difficult to piece together other hands he can have, so this is a close spot for a big chunk of your stack that you probably don't need to go for in the world's slowest and softest tournament.

What a pimp...pls let me come back in my next life with this much style.

anyways...Call

With like 1.1x left otr...hope vill checks then checks back (LOL) since we can't shove on anything except 7x; case 8. GTO strat would be to fold to a river shove on any spade (except 7) and mix (~70% fold) on blanks vs a shove. Imo u can fold >>> GTO vs described plyr* in the ME.

If vill uses a smaller sizing than pot (ran Sim for shove + 40%) then vs a GTO strat u would have to call on blanks at a slightly higher freq but can prob still fold a lot vs Ed Hardy guy.

* this plyr stereotype will run bluffs but usually not in spots like this. He def can be "protection" raising some worse hands at some freq from what I've seen.

call and hope a paired river doesn't send you home

if V checks a spade river then i'd be turning this into a bluff and jamming some non-zero% too

Are we narrowing his range 100% to JTs?

No...not necessarily, since this type of plyr can also have JTo . If you would like to narrow his range (to JT) then you can choose to put more money in. In general, calling as opposed to raising keeps villain's range wider, which can be a good thing when we're 300bbs deep and approaching the commitment threshold with a very good but non-nutted hand.

If ur asumption is that villain will continue (ott vs a 3bet shove) with his entire turn value-raising range, but fold his bluffs, then u can:

1. Soul-Read to determine how many (overplays) of AK; 2pr and bluff combos he plays like this (along with his 99 and JTs.)

2. Do some quick math and determine if 88 is ahead of his value range.

3. If the answer (to the question in step 2.) is yes, you can shove turn for value+protection*.

*assumptions would have to be that villain's bluffs would all have equity and that his river bluffing freq would be very low...AND we would frequently lose value on certain river cards.


...Or you can play a river in position with a hand that is very strong (and can still improve.)

Yeah I'm definitely not advocating for jamming on him here, it just seems everyones convinced the dudes got the nuts.

That said its a MAWG in the ME, its probably the nuts.

I also don't think we can completely discount 99

Overcalling w/ 99 otf is ambitious.

What hands that are "nutted" now is he checking otf? J10 with any spade (and certainly Js10s) should be betting or check-raising flop right? 5s6s should be doing the same. There could be some weird hands that have combo draws here (Qs10s, QsJs) that he could play this way.

ughh I don't know, I hate any decision lol. Maybe the erratic nature of his play and demeanor in general preclude him from playing standardly on this flop, so he could very well have the hands we think he shouldn't based on the flop play.

Probably a fold.

We ended up calling on the turn.

River Q. Villain bet 25k (tossed out 5 orange chips really quickly, then stared us down).

When you call a 7-card straight and lose you get instantly vaporized. Pick a better spot IMO.

Tough spot. He can have a lot of bluffs here and his value range is weighted heavily towards 65s and a questionably played JT (the OR called after your bet, so he probably shouldn't be floating his gutshot here unless it's exactly JTdd). He should be check-raising all of his sets on that flop after the OR calls so I don't think you have to worry about 99 here very much.

I don't think I can find a fold here.

Such players would barely bluff here.
He might do this with 2pair though, also A10ss, or even Q10ss, 9 10ss.
He can definitely have 77, 99, even KK is possible for such spewy playas...

56 and 10J as well, but the quick bet and stairdown on the river is wierd, makes me think he dont have a straight.
But 88 will never be ahead of his value range...

My guess is As10s, KK or 77 or 99