river play c/c or b/f put myself in tough spot with tptk - MTT Poker Strategy

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river play c/c or b/f put myself in tough spot with tptk

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01-18-2012 , 02:35 AM

tunafishtank

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 62

villain had 26% river aggression which generally means he's in between value and bluffing for river actions. from this session he seemed to be playing straight forward. overall his stats were of the TAG profile.

I always seem to be getting myself in weird spots when i go for value in these situations.

please help.

Poker Stars, $30 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 30 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #11650162

SB: 12,965 (43.2 bb)
Hero (BB): 23,262 (77.5 bb)
UTG: 21,133 (70.4 bb)
MP: 33,994 (113.3 bb)
CO: 24,206 (80.7 bb)
BTN: 16,509 (55 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q

UTG folds, MP raises to 664, 3 folds, Hero calls 364

Flop: (1,658) T

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 800, Hero calls 800

Turn: (3,258) 3

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

River: (3,258) Q

(2 players)
Hero bets 1,629, MP raises to 4,500

Spoiler:

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01-18-2012 , 02:38 AM

CaliStyle

See my staking thread

Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 4,356

b/c, looks like a bluff to me. You want his AK and weaker ace and smaller pocket pairs to hero as he is rarely ever betting those and almost always getting a free show down

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01-18-2012 , 03:07 AM

lissi stinkt

adept

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 927

Bet/fold seems fine he doesnt have kq with that sizing and a random tag is not bluffimg with that line

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01-18-2012 , 03:32 AM

CaliStyle

See my staking thread

Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 4,356

Quote:

Originally Posted by lissi stinkt

Bet/fold seems fine he doesnt have kq with that sizing and a random tag is not bluffimg with that line

meh, what range are you giving him, pocket queens?

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01-18-2012 , 03:38 AM

lissi stinkt

adept

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 927

Super thin valuerange obv and uber exploitable but how often is a random tag bluffing here in that spot
99% of people call aq here bcs of a thinkingprocess like sou thats why noone is ever bluffing in a spot like this

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01-18-2012 , 05:02 AM

Finnera

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 1,621

yeah, basically everyone calls here, but aq is good like 10% o time. Txs or KK/AA.

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01-18-2012 , 05:36 PM

tunafishtank

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 62

y not sure tbh that's why i think c/c might be best line. let him bluff, get to see showdwon, and not get bluffed out by having to b/f. although i could b/c just seems like i'm losing in these spots so often lately.
thanks for the responses

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01-18-2012 , 07:25 PM

Xhisorzz1

adept

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 857

B/F

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01-18-2012 , 09:27 PM

Elephants_pride

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,043

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaliStyle

b/c, looks like a bluff to me. You want his AK and weaker ace and smaller pocket pairs to hero as he is rarely ever betting those and almost always getting a free show down

I agreed.
AA/KK betting turn or calling river, if he puts us on Tx.
QQ only makes sense.

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01-18-2012 , 11:54 PM

#10

jonna10

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 59

I think b/c > c/c are both good depending on opp's river tendencies. But for sure folding seems like a mistake.
CaliStyle's read seems logical: he's really only repping QQ (or a strangely played 22 or 33 which are unlikely seen as though a decent opp should try to get value from FDs and protect vs Tx-hands ott).
I also think you can exclude AA and KK since it'd be stupid to check those on the turn and raise them otr so basically that only leaves AQ and bluffs in his range.

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