Hi everybody!
Early stage, 1 rebuy allowed, no info about opponent. What's the best option on this river?

Winamax, €18 + €2 - Hold'em No Limit - 500/1,000 (120 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG (Hero): 72,411 (72 bb)
UTG+1: 99,880 (100 bb)
MP: 87,030 (87 bb)
MP+1: 113,930 (114 bb)
CO: 100,957 (101 bb)
BU: 120,240 (120 bb)
SB: 177,727 (178 bb)
BB: 215,258 (215 bb)

Pre-Flop: (2,460) Hero is UTG with Q♦ A♦
Hero raises to 2,500, 1 fold, MP calls 2,500, 5 players fold

Flop: (7,460) 4♣ T♠ A♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets 4,849, Hero raises to 16,000, MP calls 11,151

Turn: (39,460) 9♠ (2 players)
Hero bets 20,000, MP calls 20,000

River: (79,460) Q♠ (2 players)

I see merits in both b/f (smallish bet) an x/evaluate. (I probably call too many smallish bets on the river here, though). No doubt you can't stand serious pressure on the river.

Not sure I like the x/r on the flop. I think I'd rather c-bet and try to keep the pot smaller here with 70ish bbs, TPGK, and no credible draws, rather than building a big pot.

And I definitely don't like the turn lead. Why are you turning your hand into a bluff when you still have a good (but not great) showdown hand without any redraw? What better hands are going to fold (none, I think ... so maybe you're planning to pile the river on a blank, which would fold out some better hands?), and what worse hands are going to call? (probably only an A that has a big spade -- which is precisley AxJs, or maybe somehting like KQ/KJ/QJ with a spade, if that even gets to the turn after the x/r).

On the river, you are hoping V has two pair, so again, you either b/f small, or x/evaluate.

Bet flop. No reason to x raise this flop here IMO. You really strengthen villains range when they continue.

^ Exactly right. Reminds me of a hand I played in a WPT main event. I flatted AQ in latish position against an UTG open by a V I knew to usually have premium hands when he opened from UTG. V in that hand did the exact same thing as H, he x/rs an ATx flop (although I think the board was rainbow in my case). I very safely folded after the x/r. I talked with V later and he said he had ATs. The point being is that his move showed amazing strength and dramatically narrowed my continuing range, even to the extent that I mucked AQ (although this was somewhat based on my knowledge of V, but I would have certainly considered folding vs a random when UTG opens and then x/r an A high flop).

At baseline, flop is a mix strat between cbet and check call

Solver never selects the cr option, but there’s actually not a ton of EV difference between cc and a smaller cr which I found surprising

However that huge cr sizing just isn’t a thing, and there’s 80bb/100 error there.

We can see that error compounded in later streets. Turn is either a check or small block bet.

This hand isn’t about the river decision at all (unless you’re asking us whether to re-enter) but once the fourth spade hits you could possibly go large targeting the set 2pr part of V range

Very interesting OS. Thanks. I also found it surprising that small x/r is similar EV to cbet and x/c. But I don't think it's smart versus pop in 18 Euro MTT to try to bluff out 2 pair+ on the river. I think you're getting range called on the river given this action at this level MTT, since there's literally no hand V has that hasn't gotten there, and Vs at this level don't often fold 2 pair plus before the re-entry is over.

Thanks for your answers!

Yes, I think you're right, cbetting this top pair on the flop is better than x/raise. I think we can cbet the best aces, A-J+, along with small and medium flush draws and maybe some of the better backdooor combo draws.

Do you have any x/raise range on this flop? Does it make sense x/raise sets, two pairs and balance with the best flush draws?

Oh yes, the thread title doesn't mean that I didn't make mistakes on earlier streets . The question on the river decision is whether bluff shoving is a good option or it's better giving up.

I think I have a very limited x/r range here. AA, AT, A4, balanced with some big spades and on occassion some broadways with one spade. (I think I'm mostly leading TT and 44 targeting V's As and not wanting it to get checked through).

Given the larger V sizing we don’t rly need to cr at any frequency but you can mix in the occasional 55% raise if you want



Although if V sizing was 1/3 pot we would certainly cr 2pr+ with some weaker broadway draw balance quite often

As an aside, solvers generally don’t like to mix flush draws and straight draws into our cr ranges unless they have additional equity (pr, str draw). Our cr/f range is more likely to consist of hands with limited equity that can improve but where we lose little binning it to a 4!



Those screengrabs are from GTOWizard at 80bb depth and 2.3bb open

Checking this flop really is fine though.

If you really want to build a cr range in these spots with your 2pr+ tptk range, then the best candidates to balance are not flush draws but stuff with low equity that can improve ott

A perfect hand is KQo holding a spade. This graph shows our response to a 1/3 V bet



But again you can see how these cr frequencies with KQo (holding a spade) drop off facing a 2/3 V bet

And the best candidates of all are KsJx and KsTx which we can half pot on a spade turn and bomb 80%+ on offsuit K J turns

Fun times

Good stuff. Thank you.

Thank you for your thorough answer Oldsilver!
I've just started studying with a solver (GTO+) and the most difficult thing is interpretating the outputs.

Sure np

Yeah the solvers are just a wall of info. Try to have very specific questions in mind before looking at data - especially post flop.

If you’d like another example of how I go about it, feel free to post another hand (maybe one that derailed) and your list of questions.

Thank you!

I think river is a c/f . What's he been calling down with so far? Unlikely he turns anything into a bluff or shoves worse for value

Yes, c/f seems a good option but maybe not the only one. The fourth spade on the river could give us the opportunity to turn our hand into a bluff and, as Oldsilver said, we can attack and target the sets, 2 pairs, maybe low/medium flush part of villain range.