Will be brief
On direct $ bubble table already caught me the two hands before where I 3b some lp open w kts bb with a 17bb stack auto Rips and I am priced in lost vs kk
Next hand I bluffed a river w Khi and got called by ax by the same guy. (Just a recreational guy I think?)
Otth
5/10k 30bb eff
108s diamonds I open mp2 to 10.5 k
Same guy who I have dumped chips to twice now peels co and everyone else folds
Qj6 two spades
I bet? For 1/3 pot
Turn 7 I bet? For 3/4 pot
River 5h (no flush possible)
I rip for like some amount close to pot

Seems fine, we lose to basically every draw (a lot of which missed) so firing seems required since x/x lose to T9/KT/Axss is a disaster. I might be slightly less likely to pull the trigger if the Q isnt a spade or if this guys an insane station. But overall this seems like a mandatory bluff, esp w the fe you gain from the bubble - I like it.

Is MP2 the same seat as "lojack", the one to the right of hijack?

Open is OK but I don't think it's a 100% frequency open. Maybe in the 33-50% frequency range.

Did you make it a lil over 2bb pre? Blinds say 5k/10k raise size says 10.5k. Assuming there's like 6bb in the pot pre with like 28bb behind going to the flop?

I think which cards were spades might matter but assuming it was QsJs6d:

Pretty range neutral flop, we shouldn't feel obligated to cbet here with any hand but on the flip side because it's range neutral we can also happily cbet with most hands.

This hand in particular think we wanna go closer to 2/3rd pot, this is one of your weaker hands in terms of absolute hand strength but because you have a draw with a backdoor this hand is better served being protected by the stronger hands in your range that wanna go bigger (KK+, QJ, etc.) as part of a more polarized strategy. I don't think you wanna be doing too much 1/3 pot cbetting on this texture.

AP turn wasn't the 7d right? c/f the turn even for small sizing. We now have better bluffs (K9, 98, T9 to name a few). Your hand probably has 15% equity against his range, maybe less.

AP you have to rip it in on the river but if V doesn't raise turn enough with AQ, QJ, 66, etc then he's gonna arrive at the river exploitably strong in which case I think you've gonna be losing EV this way.

So what you are saying is that you ran two bluffs at this guy in the last few hands and he called you down twice and busted both bluffs. If that is the case then I would say that running a third bluff at him right on the bubble is probably not your best course of action.

He has made it clear that he thinks that you have never had a hand, do not have a hand now, and will not ever have a hand in the future. Yet you are approaching him with the idea that you are going to run a bluff on this guy, dammit, if it is the last thing you do. Well, it probably will be.

If some guy has appointed himself your personal calling station, then look for a hand with some value to play against him. Running additional bluffs at him is probably futile.

I rate your spew 8 out of 10. The deduction is because you don't get any style points.

BTW running all-in bluffs on the bubble against good players or unknown players with bigger stacks than yours is almost always a bad idea.

Havent read replies but yeah a perfect bluff spot in micro level and vs some stubborn guys you should find mental strength and endurance to c/f turn.

If he peels wide pre not paying attention to stacks behind its more of a reason to c/f turn I think.

Is that because the wider he peels the more Qx, etc (made hands) he has?

T8s pretty marginal pre at these stack depths. As played, I think the adage of never bluffing a station applies here. Small c-bet is prob ok but could even argue x/c flop/fold turn because villain is going to have so much stuff in his peel range that wraps around QJ it's going to be hard to get him off of hands unless we're willing to empty clip, especially if villain is a rec and isn't ICM aware.

I guess if we get to the river we have to go for it, but I think we have to be prepared to see villain show up with some unexpectedly weak stuff.

Ran a sim for this based on my pf assumptions and looks like otf x has slightly more
Ev than check but it’s close and 1/3 is the main sizing with almost all of range
Same thing on the turn barrel 108dd is really cuspy gets bluffed non 0 %! But ev of check is a little higher
What was most interesting was that 108s gets bluffed a lot otr but for the small size where hands like ak are getting used for the all in size as a bluff

Can you post the tree config?

That's totally different than what I got lol.

I cannot see the efficacy of running an all in bluff at a guy who has beaten two bluffs by you in the last few hands, and has shown that he is willing to call your bluff with very weak holdings.

What makes you think he is folding this time, when just in the last couple of hands he called your bluff with A-x?

If your solver says that this bluff into an obvious calling station on the bubble is a +ev play then your solver is a fish.

lp'16 try running this tree if you have the RAM (it's 12gigs)

#TreeBuilding#V2
#Range0#AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,99,88,77,66,55,44:0.85,33:0 .33,22:0.1,AK,AQ,AJ,AT,A9s,A9o:0.43,A8s,A8o:0.1,A7 s,A7o:0.1,A6s:0.85,A5s,A4s:0.85,A3s:0.85,A2s:0.33, KQ,KJs,KJo:0.85,KTs,KTo:0.1,K9s:0.85,K8s:0.33,K7s: 0.1,K6s:0.1,K5s:0.1,QJs,QJo:0.1,QTs,QTo:0.1,Q9s:0. 85,Q8s:0.1,JTs:0.85,JTo:0.1,J9s:0.33,J8s:0.1,T9s:0 .85,T8s:0.33,T7s:0.1,98s:0.85,97s:0.1,87s:0.33,86s :0.1,76s:0.1,75s:0.1,65s:0.1
#Range1#AA:0.015472293,KK:0.012596011,QQ:0.2890623 81,JJ:0.940246582,TT,99:0.988945007,88:0.959869385 ,77:0.98008728,66,55:0.906860352,44:0.986557007,33 :0.85,22:0.85,AKs:0.003578067,AKo:0.47998035,AQs:0 .891967773,AQo:0.635009766,AJs:0.908752441,AJo:0.9 37530518,ATs:0.838867188,ATo,A9s:0.812988281,A9o:0 .85,A8s:0.836425781,A8o:0.85,A7s:0.825927734,A7o:0 .1,A6s,A6o:0.1,A5s:0.779418945,A5o:0.1,A4s:0.77734 375,A4o:0.1,A3s:0.896362305,A3o:0.1,A2s:0.61523437 5,KQs:0.727539062,KQo:0.871704102,KJs:0.87890625,K Jo,KTs:0.848876953,KTo:0.1,K9s:0.766113281,K9o:0.1 ,K8s:0.789880371,K7s:0.721948242,K5s:0.1,K4s:0.1,K 3s:0.1,K2s:0.1,QJs:0.978622437,QJo:0.85,QTs:0.9544 06738,QTo:0.1,Q9s,Q9o:0.1,Q8s:0.85,Q7s:0.1,Q6s:0.1 ,Q5s:0.1,Q4s:0.1,JTs:0.901977539,JTo:0.1,J9s:0.913 879395,J8s:0.85,J7s:0.1,T9s:0.838745117,T9o:0.1,T8 s:0.725488281,T7s:0.1,T6s:0.1,98s:0.919555664,98o: 0.1,97s:0.85,96s:0.1,87s:0.804956055,85s:0.1,76s:0 .391503906,75s:0.0528198242,64s:0.1,54s:0.09399566 65
#Board#Qs Js 6d
#Pot#600
#EffectiveStacks#2800
#AllinThreshold#67
#AddAllinOnlyIfLessThanThisTimesThePot#500
#MinimumBetsize#100
#FlopConfig.BetSize#10, 33, 66, 100, 150
#FlopConfig.RaiseSize#50, 100
#TurnConfig.BetSize#10, 33, 66, 75, 100, 150
#TurnConfig.RaiseSize#50, 100
#TurnConfig.DonkBetSize#10, 33, 66, 100, 15010, 33, 66, 100, 150
#RiverConfig.BetSize#10, 33, 66, 100, 150
#RiverConfig.RaiseSize#50, 100
#RiverConfig.DonkBetSize#10, 33, 66, 100, 150
#FlopConfigIP.BetSize#10, 33, 66, 100, 150
#FlopConfigIP.RaiseSize#50, 100
#TurnConfigIP.BetSize#10, 33, 66, 100, 150
#TurnConfigIP.RaiseSize#50, 100
#RiverConfigIP.BetSize#10, 33, 66, 100, 150
#RiverConfigIP.RaiseSize#50, 100
_______________

This is the flop strat (everything is denominated in big blinds, not chips):



Here's the river strat (totally polarized, jam-or-check)



Though you really shouldn't have T8s here because non-FD combos want to x/f turn pure and the Ts8s combo prefers smaller sizing OTF. But if we did arrive here with Td8d its a jam at equilibrium.

I’m just trying to play good poker. I have played less than an hour with the guy I can’t make a bunch of explo reads based off one hand where he jams 15 bbs over my 3b w kk and called w ahi once
Question was to see if my line was optimal. Seems like I wasn’t terribly far off but def took a sub optimal oine

Eggs thx for your input. My tree is gone rn. But obviously pio will be sensitive to my input and my original hh post wasn’t spot on

Easy easy fold pre unless all 5 players behind you are very bad at ICM and/or you cover them. Admittedly, that's a pretty common scenario to be in, so maybe the open is fine.