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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 09-04-2020, 11:29 PM   #1
deuceblocker
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Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

In the example the author gives it is an MTT with effective stacks 40xBB. You raise to 2.25xBB from CO with AA. The flop comes 875. The author approves of checking back the flop and calling a pot bet on the turn and a 1.7x pot bet on the river on a 875J2 board. The rationale for checking back is that the flop favors the caller and we can get checkraised a lot, so we should check back most of our range and can bluff catch with AA.

Since we are willing to stack off with AA, why not bet the flop and build the pot? I can understand checking back and calling down with other hands. Is this to protect our checking back range? Can't we cbet/fold some hands for balance and bluff catch weaker hands than AA? I know the approach now is to be balanced in ranges, but checking back a hand you are fine with gii with and would have to call down for stacks anyway seems like losing value.
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Old 09-05-2020, 01:49 AM   #2
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Re: Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

Did he (the author) specify the position of the caller? We have 3 pretty different ranges between BTN-SB-BB, so we should probably play a different strat vs each range (in terms of what combos we cbet/check back.)

The strongest* of the 3 prospective ranges here would be SB, who will have the largest proportion** of sets and combo draws. BTN's range could be similar with respect to nut/high equity hands but overall should be much wider. BB will be by far the widest range and thus will have some additional 2pr and str8 combos that SB and BTN cannot. BB will have the largest amount (but smallest proportion)** of nut/strong hands.

*strongest defined as having the largest proportion of strong hands.
**proportion=percentage of entire range.

Here's a GTO strat vs a BB Range:


Disclaimer: I'm not a GTO expert but I have looked over a few sims...

CO Opening Range:


Flop: Overpairs check back mostly b/c BB has > 2pr+ hands on this board. JJ and TT check back much less (than QQ-AA) b/c they need more protection.


Turn: Becomes an Easy Call after checking back OTF...AA still ahead of some value and BB can have a lot of semibluffs.


River: GTO strat will Call most AA combos vs. the overbet (it calls ~100% AsAh b/c that combo unblocks the most bluffs.) As you can see in this sim, the author's combo (AdAc) is mostly a fold. This doesn't mean AdAc is a bad/losing call (vs a different BB strat), it just is part of the distribution that GTO uses to arrive at the correct calling/minimum defense frequency (~36%.) For example, if you decided to call all AA combos and fold erry KK combo (except KsKh) you would be at virtually the same calling frequency and I doubt if it would affect your overall EV much.


Please refer any GTO specific questions to Eggs or someone more qualified than me...I only used the sim to demonstrate a strat that checks back a lot on the texture in your example.

To answer some of your questions RE specific hands and why they check back, it's probably easier to just focus on AA. One reason AA is a great hand to check back is that it requires the least protection since it's not vulnerable to overcards. Although AA has good equity vs. a BB range (def good enuf to cbet for value) checking it back also can induce more bluffs.

It's ok to sacrifice the EV we get from cbetting in order to strengthen our check back range, which is just another way of saying we are increasing the EV (of calling bets on future streets.) Vs. aggro/bluff-happy opponents, the EV of checking back can be >> EV of cbetting.
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Old 09-05-2020, 02:09 AM   #3
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Re: Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

caller is in BB, so presumably is likely to hit the low connected flop.
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Old 09-05-2020, 02:26 AM   #4
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Re: Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

Quote:
Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post
caller is in BB, so presumably is likely to hit the low connected flop.
Yah that makes sense...prob just cbet gii vs the other 2 ranges w 40bbs eff...
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Old 09-05-2020, 01:25 PM   #5
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Re: Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

I guess it is GTO is check back on this flop with AA specifically against the BB specifically. Presumably, with JJ it would be better not to give a free card. That also assumes a GTO opponent who will be likely to attack the check back on the low board. It might be better to cbet/gii with AA against BB against a typical mid stakes opponent.
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Old 09-06-2020, 04:52 AM   #6
maletaja81
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Re: Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

Thats modern GTO play
balance with check back
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Old 09-06-2020, 12:42 PM   #7
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Re: Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

Checking back on this board has nothing to do with gto really it’s just common sense
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Old 09-06-2020, 01:02 PM   #8
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Re: Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

Quote:
Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post
In the example the author gives it is an MTT with effective stacks 40xBB. You raise to 2.25xBB from CO with AA. The flop comes 875. The author approves of checking back the flop and calling a pot bet on the turn and a 1.7x pot bet on the river on a 875J2 board. The rationale for checking back is that the flop favors the caller and we can get checkraised a lot, so we should check back most of our range and can bluff catch with AA.

Since we are willing to stack off with AA, why not bet the flop and build the pot? I can understand checking back and calling down with other hands. Is this to protect our checking back range? Can't we cbet/fold some hands for balance and bluff catch weaker hands than AA? I know the approach now is to be balanced in ranges, but checking back a hand you are fine with gii with and would have to call down for stacks anyway seems like losing value.
Being willing to stack off vs two overbets and actually facing those bets are two very different things.

In live tourneys anyway there are very few pot size bets on the turn. And even when that happens the river shove is not a guarantee. Also the river shove can be a bluff.

If we attempt to get it in with 40 bb's it will typically take us 3 bets and most people won't pay off on 3 streets anyway.

Getting stacked off is much more likely if we get c/r'd on the flop and call down. Similarly it is much easier to pick off a bluff if we are calling only two bets.

I think a lot of the time villain will bet on the turn for about 1/2 pot and then check/call on the river hoping to pick off a bluff.

There also is a chance that villain will check the turn on a draw and call.
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Old 09-15-2020, 02:53 PM   #9
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Re: Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

Quote:
Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post
I guess it is GTO is check back on this flop with AA specifically against the BB specifically. Presumably, with JJ it would be better not to give a free card. That also assumes a GTO opponent who will be likely to attack the check back on the low board. It might be better to cbet/gii with AA against BB against a typical mid stakes opponent.
typical low-midstakes opponent probably putting in too much money v check back on this texture.

I'd be happy to arrive at river then look up with 12 combos of AA and KK and then some.
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Old 09-16-2020, 10:49 PM   #10
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Re: Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

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Originally Posted by deuceblocker View Post
Since we are willing to stack off with AA, why not bet the flop and build the pot?
Because there’s only 4% chance of an A turn to kill our action, we fear no overcards, and we rep air better by checking back flop. On later streets we get hero calls from weak pairs, sometimes for stacks. We can also pot control wet turn cards.

That might be GTO, I’m not sure
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Old 09-21-2020, 05:59 PM   #11
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Re: Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

Sorry if this is a dumb question. I am just trying to understand the GTO strategy recommended on the river in the above hand. Everything makes sense to me until the river. On the river, my initial take would have been that the best AA combo for the cutoff to call with would be AdAc, because that combo does not block suited flush draws the BB has with Axss or Axhh that missed and would likely bluff the river. The GTO strategy outlined above indicates that the AdAc combo is actually the worst AA combo to call with. But doesn't AdAc actually unblock more bluffs on the river than AsAh does?
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Old 09-21-2020, 08:42 PM   #12
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Re: Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

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Originally Posted by 9IronNightmare View Post
Sorry if this is a dumb question. I am just trying to understand the GTO strategy recommended on the river in the above hand. Everything makes sense to me until the river. On the river, my initial take would have been that the best AA combo for the cutoff to call with would be AdAc, because that combo does not block suited flush draws the BB has with Axss or Axhh that missed and would likely bluff the river. The GTO strategy outlined above indicates that the AdAc combo is actually the worst AA combo to call with. But doesn't AdAc actually unblock more bluffs on the river than AsAh does?
I'd guess OOP is probably parried from bluffing too many whiffed spades and whiffed hearts because pot bet OTT filters IP mostly to or at least very heavily concentrated on his own whiffed spades and hearts in his folding-vs-barrel range OTR--so OOP's whiffed FDs block IP's folds and are not the best bluffs.

The corollary of that is OOP is bluffing stuff that does not have spades and hearts so the AsAh combo actually unblocks bluffs the best.

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 09-21-2020 at 09:03 PM.
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Old 09-21-2020, 08:50 PM   #13
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Re: Question on hand from "Modern Poker Theory"

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Originally Posted by erc007 View Post
To answer some of your questions RE specific hands and why they check back, it's probably easier to just focus on AA. One reason AA is a great hand to check back is that it requires the least protection since it's not vulnerable to overcards. Although AA has good equity vs. a BB range (def good enuf to cbet for value) checking it back also can induce more bluffs.
I don't see OOP turn probe strat and didn't run a sim myself but I'm guessing A-highs are not high freq turn probes bc they certainly still have SDV but really suffer from getting worse to fold via a probe and basically never get worse to continue. Maybe the wheels get more probes I'm guessing since they actually benefit from folds from stuff like IP's own wheels, AT, AQ, AK and naked 5x,7x even 8x not doing so great vs pot-sized probe and tight CO is heavily concentrated on A5,A7,A8 for those vulnerable naked pairs.

So it would seem that OOP's ace highs also block IP's folding range really hard which coupled with the distribution effects I'd guess make them less than ideal probes on most turns that are not an Ace.


So in that case xb flop with AA makes especially good sense. AA are almost always still >50% equity on any turn (I'm presuming) and blocking OOP's decline probes means he's more likely to have stuff that will probe--and if AA >50% then naturally they're doing quite well vs a probing range.

What did you notice about OOP turn probe strat? And what's the equity of AA heading to the turn (not on this specific, but average equity heading to the turn having declined to cbet?)

And did you allow donks on this texture? OOP I'm almost positive gets some leads. Maybe not here tho with BB defending as nitty as the CO is opening

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 09-22-2020 at 07:29 AM.
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