https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSsQ0r5zT3w&t2m50s

This is on the exact bubble of an online $100K buyin. Both players have mid stacks, SB 60xBB, BB 78xBB. SB limps AKo, BB raises to 3.8xBB with ATo and SB calls. Flop is 5TT,r, check, BB bets 2.1xBB, call. Turns is 8 completing the rainbow, check, 6.4xBB exactly half pot, call. River is a 2, check, 17xBB 2/3 pot, call.

Is this good play for SB to pot control on the bubble? I probably would have raised preflop with the intention to shove over a 3!. He could also limp/3!/call or limp/shove. I guess BB is polarized OTR and could be pressuring with the bigger stack, position, and initiative.

If I am going to play it this way (no pre-flop raise at all) because we are on the bubble I would fold the turn. I think we are more likely to have a T than BB.

I do think we have way too big an effective stack to limp/shove. If my standard limp/raise would be 4x of the BB raise then it would be for about 15 bb's. So I would need an effective stack of at most 50 bb's to shove pre-flop. I just think a limp/shove here exposes us to get wiped out for too little of a gain.

I wouldn't limp/shove, but it makes a natural raise to like 3xBB, 3! to about 10x BB and 4! shove. I don't know if he was always limping from the SB. You can also limp/3!/call. I don't mind playing postflop with an SPR of a little over 1 and AK. If you limp/shove, you pick up a significant pot, and should get called by some hands you dominate BvB.

I can see just playing pot control though and limp/calling almost everything right on the bubble.

I would call the turn, but I am don't like calling 2/3 pot OTR.

Seems odd to limp AK from SB at that stack depth. I'd 3bb it every time.

No issue with limping it below 30BB and jamming over any BB raise.

I'm ok with a mixed limp/raise strategy as long as we 3! over BB's raise.

Pretty sure Daniel knows what he's doing. For the best possible response, get a RIO elite subscription and send the question to him. Watch his insanely high quality content whilst you wait for a reply

This. There are multiple ways he can go here that have very similar $ev. If you're trying to get better at poker, wasting time on this video is not your golden ticket for various reasons. The main reason being, understanding this video will only improve your ev if you get to the highest levels of the game. If you play like this against your average mid stakes reg, you're burning money.

Back when I 1st watched this, I thought it was a very interesting ICM spot for Dvoress. Ran some sims, using HRC and Pio...

Assuming DD was using a 100% Limp strat in the SB (which isn't a stretch at all imo) the most interesting/crucial decision is whether to LRR (3bet) or just call. The $EV for calling ($15,190) is higher than 3betting ($12,246.) HRC advocates a mixed strat (calling 12% and 3betting 88%.) Not sure why it doesn't want to just call more frequently?

Here's the Limp-Calling Range*:

*HRC calling ranges seem way too wide, so a lot of the weaker combos can just be folded since we only have to defend ~50% (of our 90% limping range) vs a 3.8x iso. Notice QQ is being called 24% as well.

Here's the LRR/3Bet Range:


The main issue with LRR AKo is it allows BB to 4bet jam all of his AKo and make $29,929. We can't call off all our AKo combos, since calling the 4bet loses -$11,056. HRC has AKo calling off at 36% freq. See 4Bet Calling Range:


As played River: Pio Sim using the ICM option and HRC Ranges:

AKo is a pretty low freq bluff-catcher (~25%) so DD might have thought Vogelsang was over-bluffing this spot, or he was just unfortunate to roll low (on his RNG) and Call.