Day 2 of a $1500 buyin tournament - 40 mins level, down to 2 tables (17 players left) and ITM.

Payout:
16-18 - $6.5K
13-15 - $8.1K
10-12 - $9.6K
9 - 1 - $11.2K, $14.5K, $18K, $22K, $26.5K, $34K, 52K, $80K, $115K

Table is 8 handed.

Hero is a cash game player, also play some tournaments with little over 500K, second in chips on the table.

Chip leader on the table has little over 600K. He is a good thinking player, mainly play tournaments, also play some cash games. All other player has 180K to 300K.

BBA and BB=8k

OTTH - Chip leader opens utg to $18K. He wouldn't open utg light, his range is very strong here.

Note - BB is the shortest stack on the table with 180K. BB is a cash game players, mainly play 10/25 game.

Hero is in HJ with QQ, I guess this is a standard 3bet. But hero doesn't want to play a huge pot again chip leader with so many short stacks. Hero flat here.

fold all the way to BB who jams, utg then tank, and reshove. What should hero do? Is this a standard spot to call off? What would be bottom line for hero to call off here? JJ, AKo?

If you think UTG does this with JJ and AK, then you should pile. 3-bet the first time around though.

Given that they opened UTG, then jammed over a 25BB reshove into the 2nd biggest stack at the table, I think they are monstrous here almost always.

I honestly pukefold and don't tell anyone. Calling JJ or AKo here would be pretty bad IMO, this guy just isn't showing up with TT or AQs ever. I might actually be KK+ in this exact spot.

To be cEV neutral we need 40.5% equity (calling 490 to win 718) - obv not perfect b/c we can lose the main but win the side and be OK, but just keeping it simple. Against 77+, AJs+, AQo (BB) and JJ+, AK (UTG), we have 36.5% (47.3% in the side pot).

In a tourney we shouldn't call off in cEV neutral spots. Unless we think BB or UTG is considerably wider than those ranges, I think we cryfold.

BB is a decent 10-25 cash game player, young Asian, even he is short stack but still have over 20BB, and he knows utg's range, and possibly I call behind with a monster hand too.I don't think he would shove light. He potentially has a super strong hand too (AKo/JJ+). This is my read at the table. I ended up folding there, I am just not sure if this is a correct play. In a tournament at late stage, pay jump starts to affect the action, from a icm perspective, i am really unclear for this spot. Glad to hear more.

I think this is call here as played.

Feels like a squeeze play when Big stack about min raises to 18k and then you just call to see cheap flop.
BB might just see easy money in the middle with his jamb so I think BB's range is wide

Big Stack's initial wimpy raise and then the tank/re-shove I think you can take out some premiums (AA KK QQ)

By laying off the gas and not 3betting QQ here I think you opened the door for BB to squeeze.
Big Stacks probably picked up on this with his tanking.

Call and when you survive against AJ vs AK vs QQ - you will be the new massive chip leader.

I don't think you can call off with AK AQ Ax type hands because you may have your outs taken.
I think against two shoves and with tournament life on line then I think your calling hands are only AA KK QQ.

3-bet preflop ... Always... Not because of the UTG raise, but because of other players... Possibly big stack won't fold to your 3-bet, but your call induce calls from hands you don't want (Kx,Ax)... and also because you can get in the exact situation you are describing where you don't know if BB is making a squeeze play or he really has a very strong hand... and the shove from the big stack...

As played, I think is better to fold...

Absolutely disagree. Most good players are going to open their entire range to the same size. Players who vary their size usually go smaller with monsters to suck you in and bigger with hands they hate to play flops with like TT-QQ and AK. 18k is an absolutely standard open at 4/8.

Same with the the tank. Do you expect a good player to do the Hellmuth instapile with Beth Shak “AA” hand gesture with aces here? Why?? They are gonna tank to suck you in.

Have a hard time believing flatting the 1st time around is anything but an unmitigated disaster.

AP you're not supposed to have a calling range here, so you should surprise them by calling.

I expected to see another great mathmatical analysis from Eggs when i opened this thread and he simply gives contrarian advice......

So you did not raise because you did not want to play a big pot in position against the chipleader and now you have to call off your stack preflop against the same chipleader or fold (and lose 18k of your 500k stack)? If your first thought was correct, its an easy fold, just dont tell anyone or show.

yep

If we're utg, should we even have a shovingrange in that spot?

it's a tough spot for an occasional mtt player playing a $1.5k event with 2CL and $115K up top 17 left.

you're right, the safe route is to 3! v UTG range, establish a strong range for Hero, then play accordingly.

however, if there hasn't been a ton of squeezing going on and the rest of the table also sees UTG range as tight, then calling 18K and folding to subsequent action isn't too bad. if V is capable, then stacks and gameflow are kinda perfect for a light 4! and 3!/f would be far worse than call/fold, and 5!/gii is a huge gamble (we win 150K when we're right and usually lose 500K when we're wrong).

Anyone give a different answer if utg chipleader just flats the bb's 180k shove?

I am not 100% convinced on calling the shove.

I am, however, 90-95% convinced that we should never, ever be in this node of the game tree. We should always be 3betting.

Not gonna reveal my method for how I prove that to myself because a. I'm not entirely sure it's correct, only like 90%-95% convinced and b. If it is correct it's an extremely valuable method and not one I'm willing to share but I'm seeing several BBs in EV difference between flatting the 1st time and 3betting.

Of course, I'm an online player so I acknowledge this particular question may not be in my wheel house.

But passing up several BBs in EV out of a desire to not play a big pot should be considered a massive leak.

If we expect the opener to announce his presence with a 4b (or in this case I suppose he'd be 5betting ceteris parabus) and only sit KK+ with that action, then I believe 3b/f is actually a higher EV line than flatting.

AP, I do not think OP is ever supposed to have a calling range. He is so severely capped it's not even humorous. I highly doubt OP ever has KK+ here, and if QQ are a sure-fire 3b (which I'm gonna believe until definitively proven otherwise) then I can only imagine how bad flatting KK+ would be, anyway, unless you have sick live soul read that players behind are getting ready to empty the clip and pay you off when they otherwise wouldn't had you 3b.

The jammer likely has something like {88+, AQ+}. If I'm the opener and I don't think the flatter has a calling range, I'm shipping {JJ+, AK} all day.

Wouldn't read too much into the tank. Could be a Hollywood, could be a legitimate attempt at thought, it's a mixed signal.

It's tough to give the kind of analysis I'd like because it's multiway, and the action isn't closed on OP.

The method I allude to above (sorry for being coy) is an attempt to estimate the equilibrium.

Super interested to hear results. OP can you include in a spoiler please?

Eggs, i know you have taken some **** from other posters but I greatly appreciate the analysis and calculations of your normal posts. While I enjoy the non-mathematical skills required for live poker and rely on them when playing (and posting), I love watching you math guys crunch the numbers to get a correct answer.

FWIW having typed out something I think we prob should be folding AP.

From my reading, I would put utg V on AA/KK/AK, i don't think he would reshove JJ/AQ here. BB would shove AQ+/99+ here. I was favor vs utg AK, but behind AA/KK, and from the icm perspective I thought it probably -EV to gamble here vs utg entire range.

I do have all the monsters (AA/KK) as part of my pre flop calling range, and I only flat for a small percentage of time. I think it would protect my ranges, induce some bluffs, and take control post flop as i am in position. Meanwhile, it may induce some squeeze play from players behind.

Probably most opponents don't know this.

How did you finish?

Despite the result, I dont mind the fold given (one of) your goal(s)- hero does not want to play a big pot w cl, with all the short stacks. Your flat may have created the big pot but that is immaterial. Once it was created, a fold makes sense.

Tough spot with two jambs in front.
How did you end up in tournament?

I made final table but not finished top 3 for a big score, anyway as a cash player, I know there are so many spots I need to work on in tournaments.

Good thread. For the record, when we 3b pre, we are 3b calling 62 bbs here vs chip leader? or 3b/f?

I don't think his range is as strong as you give him credit for, unless you think he's a nit. If he's a good player then he should have a bit of a wider range since he's CL and he should be raising a lot of hands that block rejamming ranges i.e. unsuited broadways.

Do you know what your table image is, or what this player thinks of you?

Standard play is to 3bet and get it in if he 4bets. I know it sucks to call off cuz I don't think he has JJ here too often (again, depends on your table image), but you're 3bet folding too much equity here.

You're passing up on too many chips to not 3bet because 1) he can fold, 2) he can call your 3bet and play postflop with a range disadvantage OOP and 3) you're doing well enough against him. ICM is a factor but I think you can't be too afraid to clash with a big stack when you'll have such a higher likelihood of taking down the tourney if you double at this point.

the GTO (what to do in a vacuum against an unknown V) solution hasn’t been given and I’d be interested to know it too. I suspect at this depth it’s very close. icm may push it to 3!/f.

however this is neither a vacuum nor an unknown V. far more likely that there’s some live V tendency Hero can exploit.

the interesting thing about @Eggs analysis is that the best Hero line always starts with 3!, never flat. given the potential for third player squeeze that doesn’t surprise me. however postflop range advantage arguments seem v dicey imho. who would have a postflop range advantage on Axx in this hand - an UTG CL who r/c or the MP 3! ? I think it’s far from clear given both players have a ton of strong Ax in range.