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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 02-12-2019, 03:35 AM   #1
DebtsNBooze
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QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Do you get it in in this spot?

PokerStars - 45/90 Ante 14 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 54.78 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 14)
UTG+1: 55.56 BB
MP: 53.08 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 4.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 49)
MP+1: 107.88 BB (VPIP: 37.82, PFR: 24.37, 3Bet Preflop: 13.64, Hands: 119)
MP+2: 75.47 BB (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 17.54, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 57)
CO: 74.02 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
Hero (BTN): 49.77 BB
SB: 50.06 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
BB: 62.59 BB (VPIP: 25.81, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 31)

9 players post ante of 0.16 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.9 BB) Hero has Q Q

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO calls 3 BB, Hero raises to 11.83 BB, SB raises to 49.9 BB and is all-in, fold, UTG raises to 54.62 BB and is all-in, CO calls 51.62 BB, Hero?
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Old 02-12-2019, 04:11 AM   #2
wynner88888
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Fold
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Old 02-12-2019, 12:34 PM   #3
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

We need 17% equity, might be close but when you have the best hand folding is such a tragedy and we almost have the odds to just suckout so I call.
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Old 02-12-2019, 01:20 PM   #4
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

The "edit" button disappeared, I checked what equilab said about this spot and in fact it's a snap call and it's not close.


Equity
MP2 25.29% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
MP3 25.29% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
CO 25.29% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
BU 24.13% { QQ }

Especially since they usually have more stuff in their ranges.
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Old 02-13-2019, 03:24 AM   #5
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Easy fold
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Old 02-13-2019, 04:22 AM   #6
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Call. Expect to see a lot garbage from villains in these spots. Especially from CO
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Old 02-13-2019, 09:21 AM   #7
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Why would you expect villains to throw their stacks away with garbage hands? Even if you’re ahead of all three hands preflop it’s still a massive risk for your tournament life. The only way I’d consider calling is if the tournament were a rebuy and I could buy back in with a healthy stack
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Old 02-13-2019, 02:47 PM   #8
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Quote:
Originally Posted by wynner88888 View Post
Why would you expect villains to throw their stacks away with garbage hands? Even if you’re ahead of all three hands preflop it’s still a massive risk for your tournament life. The only way I’d consider calling is if the tournament were a rebuy and I could buy back in with a healthy stack
Do you think they have tighter ranges than what I gave them on equilab ? f*uck maths ?
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Old 02-13-2019, 03:01 PM   #9
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Quote:
Originally Posted by xamlop View Post

Equity
MP2 25.29% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
MP3 25.29% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
CO 25.29% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
BU 24.13% { QQ }
There's the answer.

Considering that people do dumb stuff sometimes in tournaments (AJs+, AQo, JJ, TT) and even sometimes do spew city stuff (XX), it's not close.
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Old 02-13-2019, 05:09 PM   #10
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Quote:
Originally Posted by xamlop View Post
Do you think they have tighter ranges than what I gave them on equilab ? f*uck maths ?
No, much wider. QQ has much less chance vs AK, JJ, TT than vs AK, AK, AK. Maybe Iím missing something but for me itís almost definitely a fold.
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Old 02-13-2019, 05:14 PM   #11
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Plus, all we need is an AA or KK (which I imagine is many V’s calling range here) and we’re already miles behind.
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Old 02-13-2019, 06:00 PM   #12
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

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Originally Posted by wynner88888 View Post
No, much wider. QQ has much less chance vs AK, JJ, TT than vs AK, AK, AK.
Ok, so f*uck maths.

What you're missing is pot odds and ranges wider than "KK+".
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Old 02-13-2019, 06:04 PM   #13
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Ok. I’m still folding
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Old 02-13-2019, 06:49 PM   #14
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

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Originally Posted by wynner88888 View Post
Ok. Iím still folding
You think EV is a myth ? Don't believe in pot odds ? Just curious.
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Old 02-13-2019, 06:51 PM   #15
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Oh and BTW, if people turn their cards face up and we know we're in third place, call is still breakeven.


17.17% { QQ }
10.27% { KK }
69.48% { AA }
3.07% { AKo }
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Old 02-13-2019, 08:05 PM   #16
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

yeah f* maths
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Old 02-13-2019, 09:56 PM   #17
wynner88888
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Quote:
Originally Posted by xamlop View Post
You think EV is a myth ? Don't believe in pot odds ? Just curious.
I donít care about an infinite number of tournaments. I care about this particular Mtt and this particular hand. And if I call Iím probably out. I donít need to risk my life for 200bb; 50bb is more than healthy and Iíll build my stack in less risky ways.

If I were a cash game player then I would have to think differently, but Iím not. If Iím missing a trick then lucky for you
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Old 02-14-2019, 12:42 PM   #18
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

I actually think it's very close and I can argue folding here. Because you can't look at this spot and assume that everyone here is always going to have all their QQ+ and AK.

For example, the SB probably has the widest range. I'd assume the SB can jam here JJ+, AK, maybe sometimes TT and AQs.

UTG probably has a tighter calling range facing that jam, maybe QQ+, AKs, AKo. You could maybe argue UTG also has JJ but that doesn't really change our equity in this hand much either way.

The CO is the big one. Do we think the cutoff is always calling off a jam and a call ahead of them with QQ or AK? If they always call, then our call becomes profitable. If they only call with, say, KK and AA, then it's -EV.

So let's give everyone these ranges:
SB: JJ+, AK, TT [50%], AQs [50%]
UTG: JJ+, AK
CO: KK+, QQ[50%], AKo[50%], AKs[50%]
BTN: QQ

In that scenario, we have 22% equity, which is a call.

If the CO never calls with QQ and only rarely calls with AK, then our equity is 18%.

If the CO only calls with AA/KK, then our equity is 15%.

It really comes down to how wide we think the cutoff calls off facing a SB jam and UTG call. If there's some AK in the CO's calling range, we can call, if we think there's never any AK then it's almost certainly a fold. I think it's pretty plausible for the CO to fold all their AK there.

Last edited by jpgiro; 02-14-2019 at 12:49 PM.
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Old 02-14-2019, 01:10 PM   #19
2pairsof2s
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

You said this was a KO, so building a big stack early is of greater importance than it might be in a regular tournament.

Also guys tend to play much wider ranges and take bigger chances during the early stages of a KO. So thinking that you are behind everyone's range is pessimistic; I think QQ might be a fairly competitive hand here.

It's too bad that you cover none of the villains, so no bounties for you, but having a 200 BB stack is such a big advantage in a KO that I think you have to call.

I think this would be a pretty easy fold if this were a regular tournament instead of a Knockout.
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Old 02-14-2019, 02:30 PM   #20
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2pairsof2s View Post
You said this was a KO, so building a big stack early is of greater importance than it might be in a regular tournament.

Also guys tend to play much wider ranges and take bigger chances during the early stages of a KO. So thinking that you are behind everyone's range is pessimistic; I think QQ might be a fairly competitive hand here.

It's too bad that you cover none of the villains, so no bounties for you, but having a 200 BB stack is such a big advantage in a KO that I think you have to call.

I think this would be a pretty easy fold if this were a regular tournament instead of a Knockout.
The problem is that we don't really know how any of these players play or whether they are factoring the KO dynamic into their ranges. If that element changes the CO's calling range even somewhat, then this goes from being a marginal spot to a call.
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Old 02-14-2019, 06:13 PM   #21
herbalerv
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

quite an interesting unusual one based on exact sizes.
obviously will depend somewhat on opponents and if not at least what tournament it is but can't imagine folding.

probably folding JJ
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Old 02-14-2019, 09:48 PM   #22
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

As others pointed out it's +cEV to call even if all ranges are QQ+, AK and I just don't think they're ever that narrow. Even then we have 21% equity and a call is worth 170*.21-38*.79=5.7bb which is a 15% return on the chips you risk on a call. That's good enough for me, and again that's absolute worst case scenario. We plausibly return as much as 25% on a call. We can't pass that up

When you factor in our tournament equity gain from quadrupling up (especially in this event, being a KO) this is a massively +$EV call.
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Old 02-14-2019, 10:08 PM   #23
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Quote:
Originally Posted by wynner88888 View Post
I donít care about an infinite number of tournaments. I care about this particular Mtt and this particular hand. And if I call Iím probably out. I donít need to risk my life for 200bb; 50bb is more than healthy and Iíll build my stack in less risky ways.

If I were a cash game player then I would have to think differently, but Iím not. If Iím missing a trick then lucky for you
mate, if it's an online tournament and there are an infinite number of online tournaments, then there's no excuse for folding if calling is +EV and no icm

if it's a live tournament, then your point is valid. post flop edge can be so large in live mtt in particular fields that passing up such a spot is defensible
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Old 02-15-2019, 02:21 AM   #24
Colin_Piddle
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

Fold this ain't the big $1.10.
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Old 02-17-2019, 03:04 PM   #25
wynner88888
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Re: QQ with 50BBs in a PKO

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Originally Posted by oldsilver View Post
mate, if it's an online tournament and there are an infinite number of online tournaments, then there's no excuse for folding if calling is +EV and no icm

if it's a live tournament, then your point is valid. post flop edge can be so large in live mtt in particular fields that passing up such a spot is defensible
Iím glad so many people think like this, but for me itís a really obvious fold for really obvious reasons. Maybe with more experience my mind will change but at the moment itís not close
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