Down to the final 64 from ~2400 runners

Currently paying $7K, jumps to $8K at 63 players and $319K up-top.

I have been card dead for the last 2 hours, like zero spots to shove.

Villain is new to the table, maybe played like 5 hands, in the time at the table he is talking stats but not in the right context. He knows but he doesn't know, ya know ?

Blinds 15K/30K/30K (30K button ante)
Hero - 240K
Villain - 1.5MM

Villain min opens UTG, folded to me in Mid Position I look at AT

I give ZERO eff's about laddering, only way I get life unstuck is if I take this down.

Knowing I have zero fold equity am I stuffing this here ?

Nope.

No guarantee you will be HU. V doesn't know how "Tight/card dead" you have been with a 5 hand history. Even if he doesn't "know, ya know" if he is at least competent then you are at a significant range disadvantage to a full ring UTG open. While I don't think your FE = 0, this is a marginal spot at best. You can still afford to wait until you are first in.

pretty marginal shove but with our stack I guess it's fine to take even slightly -ev since /blinds increasa /future game. we'll be in decent shape if our FE is 0 or close to 0. if blinds are going up soon i'm pretty happy to go with it actually.

I think it's a good spot to take. You're going to have anywhere in the neighborhood of 40-50% vs his opening range obv depending on how tight / loose he is opening. Definitely value aggression vs passive play esp if u don't care about laddering.

if you pass this spot:
1. you're going to cop a 75K hit to your stack going through the BB->BTN in a few hands time. forget about FE after that.
2. if you pick up a reasonable shoving hand before you get to the BB, you're shoving into progressively more players, reducing your FE

So the opportunity cost (i.e. future FE if you pass this) isn't as high as you might think.

If you jam here:

1. if someone comes in behind with a premium, or V snaps AKo here or w/e, then it's hardly an icm or pot odds disaster. can think of many worse hands than ATs against likely reshove/call ranges.
2. i'd also say that FE >>> 0 against a guy that's opening a 50BB stack at this stage of the mtt.

go with it.

I'm folding here vs UTG open. Best case we are flipping. Worst case we are crushed by AQ+/TT+.

I'm probably folding AJs here as well.

The question is what is our fold equity here? If I am UTG I am calling with AJ+/66+ vs a shove from 8 blinds. If nobody else comes in. So I'm not folding much. And I don't expect UTG to fold much with his 50 BB's.

Also, while I want to win tournaments I hate knocking myself out here with the extra 1k just waiting for us.

Is this FR or 3max? Obv this is important

Id be jamming here mostly, with 8bb is fine.. its not like we can wait and find a better spot of sumfin

If it's -EV then it's -EV to the tune of about 1BB, not 8BB and that's worse-case scenario. suited Ax v dominating unsuited Ax only a 2/1 underdog (e.g. ATs v AQo). When you add in the dead SB/BB/ante chips and consider ATs (and similar hands like A5s) equity if it goes multiway, ATs stacks up reasonably well

i think Hero's got to the point where he should punt, especially given the ATs is actually ahead of a reasonable part of V range given OP description

PIO me for sure, but i'm on the jam side

With minimal ICM implications and a non-zero chance we might have fold equity (players do crazy things when they see shoves, even small ones) this feels like a shove more often than not. Either way I doubt you're making a major error.

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kinda dumb not to care about 1k fwiw, I also dgaf about laddering a lot but 1k is 1k u feel me?

I think you gotta rip. Maybe agonize a little for some showmanship equity.

ignore people that haven't played poker for a while ^

know your jamming ranges before you look at your cards and when you see any hand in that range, insta-jam. Practice this one in the mirror. People will put you on nut hands every time if you make it look like it's a no-brainer decision.

I tanked until the opener called the clock on me (like 4 minutes), waited for the clock to hit 1 second and jammed it.

Blinds were creeping up, ATs looked like the nutz after 2 hours of folding and I thought there was a possibility that I would have been ahead of the bottom of his opening range.

I'd jam it. I think the fact that you are going through the blinds and lose 75K is a huge factor. In these tournaments people do raise light from UTG sometimes. He will show up with stuff that you beat some % of the time and there is already 75K in the pot.

I think oldsilver is right about the insta-jam thing.

Unless you look like you are agonizing for all 4 minutes (like you are on life support or are in a room with not enough oxygen) you make the call a lot easier because your hand looks a lot like what it actually is. You give AJ an easy call.

AJ isnt folding 99% of ever

It wouldn't be indefensible but it's not a great spot. Open shoving some of those "card dead" hands from lp is a better spot.

Most players would rather be eliminated with a good hand than a good spot. Human nature I think, as an armchair psychologist.

Nah, just looks like a card dead nit who saw a pretty hand and snap jammed irregardless.

I think this is one of those spots that you have to take because of the blinds. Either you shove now or you shove any 2 from the button.

I agree with a lot of people saying that you shouldn't take so long but to be honest, is it really going to change the way the villain will play the hand?

I also want to mention sometimes there are tables that are tight and a bigger stack will raise all kinds of hands from Early position, 67s, pocket 2s, etc. He raises to 60K and wins 75K. The more I think about this hand the more I think it's a snap jam.

For those who think it's a fold, does this change if you are on the button, CO, or in the BB?

This ^^. Getting called by original opener gives an 18.5 BB pot, which is significant enough to probably take a slightly -eV spot. Assuming in the next 2 hands you don't pick up a good shoving spot, the pot up for grabs when you shove your 5.5 BBs from the button (or any other later time) later on gives a pot of 13.5 BBs (best case scenario) or less if called by one of the blinds.

I think being a slight dog in a 18.5 BB pot >> being first in for a 13BB pot. Add in chance of FE and chance of being ahead of UTGs opening range...seems like a shove to me.

1) While you don't have alot of fold equity, to say you have 0% fold equity is incorrect. I would imagine that if villain is opening 10% he's folding maybe the bottom 1/3 of hands, which may incidentally be small pairs, suited connectors or small suited Axs that they added as bluffs to the range.

2) Against top 7% you have @ 35% equity.

30% * 4.5BBs + 70%[(18.5BBs * 35%) - 8BBs] = + 0.28

So it rates to be very close either way. If he calls off wider your cEV goes down to maybe -0.5BBs at the most.

If he mistakenly finds a fold with 50% of his range, this is clearly profitable.

So it is marginal either way. I probably lean toward a fold, but wouldn't really blame you for shoving.

guys... i can't read anymore about folding this, i feel pain in my eyes when i see fold advices on this subscribed thread so I had to put it in hrc:



there u can see reasonable opening range for CL in that tournament. if he however opens wider which is very realistic - it's fist pump jam, and that is if we have 0% FE. if we have some FE (which is very unlikely imo) obv it's much better.

The original range plugged into HRC is quite wide for an EP open. I don't know many standard players opening 16% from EP. Yeah a player with a LAG read maybe, but OP says he has no read. 10% is closer to the average open % for the standard player.

But anyway, HRC got 0.40 and I got 0.28. I still consider 0.4 to be marginal profit.

0.4bb on 8bb stack is a huge edge

edit: wrt opening range, i guess anything between 14-17 is reasonable bcs he's table cl most likely, and if we put 14 its still solid +0.3.

we just simply gotta take even slightly minus spots with this stack. ev doesnt know for future game

what's really tilting me is we're like 20 posts deep and we still don't know how many players are seated at the freaking table, unless im missing something?