Hey guys, this happened the other night, and I don't have the exact hand history but wanted to get some input on a hand where I was pretty lost.

We're down to 7 players at the time. I was in 4th, with about 30bbs. There were two stacks around 10bbs, and another with 20.

Background: I had been playing pretty tight/solid (I think). The villain was by far the most active and was in 2nd at the time with around 50bbs. I had been at his table since there were about 20 left, and he got lucky to double up when he 3!/called off w 24bbs and A5dd (HJ vCO), but since that hand I didn't see anything too reckless--just a lot of raising. He folded a bunch when he faced aggression to his opens, or aggression to his cbets.

Folds to villain in HJ, he minraises (standard sizing). Folds to me in the bb with 108 and I call.

Flop: 10J10

I check, he bets 1.1bbs, I raise to 3.4bbs. He calls.

Turn: Q

I check. He checks.

River A

I lead 3.6bbs.

So, obviously the turn is the main street I'd like to talk about. My concern was that he'd jam over my bet. He'd be doing that with a range of hands that both have me beat, or have a lot of equity against me. I didn't think he'd jam with KQ for instance, since I was repping the 10. Bet/folding didn't feel good, but bet/calling off didn't either, especially with ICM.

I'm interested in the flop as well if there are alternatives iyo.

When the river came, I thought the block bet was better than checking. At least, that was my reasoning. I think I can get value from his AQ/AJ type hands, and I'd be able to let it go if he jammed over me. Although, maybe he takes a stab with his Jx type hands if I check.

I didn't have a timebank left at this point, which complicated things.

Anyway, thanks for the help.

Edit: Re: turn. I wasn’t just concerned with him jamming over my turn cbet. If he calls, I’d be in a tough spot on a lot of rivers given the stack sizes.

In theory you can xr a lot wider than you are probably in-game, especially Jx. You have a lot of gutshots and even combos like really weak aces and kings whose kicker doesn't interact much with V's range (he does not have a huge amount of 2x, 3x, 4x in his range), for this sizing you maintain a ton of playability across turn and rivers and with these weaker combos protected by your higher count of Tx combos (you have all or almost all suited Tx and he certainly does not) you do not maximize your EV by pure flatting Jx or pure folding crap like Kd4d, Ah2h, et al.

Thus in theory turn is not a spot where you get to barrel wide at all, he has QQ+ you don't (still relevant if you find xr with J9s, or 97o, et al), he has TT-JJ you have few to none, all your best Tx are in his range, too (namely T8s+ though he probably has T7s, too), and it's dubious that you, a virtually random member of the population, are assumed by V to have T6o- (and you prob should ICM fold these pre, anyway). So if both of you were playing perfectly V's turn range would be pretty strong relative to yours and you'd lack any clear advantages to start barreling wide.

But in practice you are stronger than you ought to be and so you pick up a lot more incentive to barrel. You also clearly have incentive to check. AT is about the only real high frequency barrel in your range both for blocker reasons and because it's sheerly strong enough to be barreled a lot. AT is higher EV than even 9h8h.

But as with flop you probably end up displaying aggression exploitably strong, it's very tempting to bet lots of Tx and 98 thinking you get called by KK+, AQ etc and perhaps you do because ACR V's are stations.

But that makes your river range weaker than it should be, this river is bad regardless but As is now especially bad for your range, on top of all that it;s also worse because IP player has no incentive to float KK+ OTT. You range is way, way behind OTR and all you can really do is x your range and snap your boats/straights when he ships and fold the rest, and play the x/decide game with your trips combos when he uses smaller sizings. Whatever overfloating for value he does OTT likely gets cancelled out OTR because V's just never bluff enough.

Really do not like the river delay.

Think you should check call river. It sucks when he piles river over your bet. I also think Villian can bet river with air/ no showdown that he can never call with. He can also make your life miserable on river and put you in icm hell with a big raise/jam.

Btw nice job making the ft of a 55/150k.

I don't see AK QQ JJ as the dominant part of a V range that opens 50% PFR (?) on the FT, plus you block 98 and Tx. So I'm betting turn every time for value. V range now picks up a ton of draws to pay you off and if the 8 drops you likely double through any 9x which now figures fairly strong in V range given card removal.

River is quite horrendous and while you can block bet some opponents, this guy doesn't sound like one of them.

I'm definitely not check raising GTO, and it's something I need to work on. I'm sure I tighten my CR range even more at a FT. I wouldn't just CR a 10, but even with a J I'm prob taking the more passive line.

So this seems key to me. I don't think either one of us was playing perfectly from a GTO perspective. That's my assumption, and I assume that's his.


Yea I was unsure about the bet OTR, again part of it was time. In my experience, and there might be a bit of rationalization in this, most players in this spot (his chip stack, at a FT) won't jam over my bet with a bluff, so my bet is clearly exploitative, and I was greedy about saving the few bbs if I were to check/call a half pot bet. I dunno, but I appreciate the PIO analysis.

Thanks for that, it was a nice run.

What kind of bluffs do you think he gets to the river with that have no showdown value? I'm guessing a J? I may have gone this route if I had more time to think, but I ran out of time bank. Also, given the player's aggression, I was almost certain he would've bet the river after I checked turn and checked river. I didn't wanna face that, which is prob not a good reason.


I went into the reasoning behind the block bet, so I won't repeat but I just didn't think many players would jam/risk a huge chunk of their stack at the FT given his position in the tourney. If he was the CL, or if he was short, I def think I check the river.

He wasn't opening 50%, more like mid 30s if I had to guess (don't have a HUD). The turn card really slowed me down since there were now soooo many river cards that would've sucked. Thanks for the input.

Edit: It occurred to me that you may have meant that he's opening 50% from his position, and that's prob not too far off. A bit high, but right idea.

One of the biggest leaks I see at midstakes is ppl not playing well on paired boards like this Both a) the ip player cbetting way too often and b) the oop player playing way too passively vs the Cbet. Now most of the work I’ve done for these spots is at 100bb so not exactly sure how this will change with shorter stacks but guessing the principles are gonna be mostly the same.
You’re supposed to bet x/r every single 10x and I think almost all the jx gets check raised too. Then you start mixing in some hands with bd flush draws and straight draws and you have built yourself a pretty tough strategy as the oop player. Especially Bc ip is gonna be cbetting way too often you can start printing.
Anyway for your hand I see why you checked ott but I think your hand wants to keep betting for value/protection and sure he has ak here and qq jj but there’s tons of stuff you want to keep extracting value from too.
Otr your hand is just basically trash now and it’s a pretty easy xf imo you can start defending with all your boats and straights vs the river bet

Hi OP

Yes 50% from this position, reducing AK QQ JJ frequency considerably.

If your flop check-raise range is all Jx / Tx and you check the Q turn, then I believe you're repping Jx at that point. I don't mind that you actually have some weaker Tx (like T8o) for balance to avoid check/folding every overcard turn. However I'd prefer checking or block-betting an A or K, as there are less draws (in both ranges).

The Q gives equity to a wide portion of V range that can continue (Q9 etc) and you have similar hands J9 KJ in your range to give incentive to V to hang around - so imho go hard on the Q turn and get value while it's there.

As played however, you've checked fearing a bad river and 'lo that river has arrived. Crystal ball is working well. So check again, and call or fold based on your interpretation of V bet/call range otf. It's quite an interesting decision at this point and by no means a snap muck.

The strongest argument to bet here is for some value against Qx Ax, but since you're never betting Jx otr your hand becomes face up Tx imho. As a result, I think you'll get bluff raised a large % purely based on the range you defined with the c/r otf.

Hey Silver,

For me, my CR range on the flop wouldn’t include very many Jx. But Eggs and lolposting made compelling arguments that I should be doing that and I agree with them. Hopefully I’m able to apply the theory in game, which I have difficulty with.

My CR range on the flop has all the 10s and my straight draws, and maybe a hand like A9 w a bdfd. So in my mind, I did have some straights on the river (I’d have played KQ the same way) and maybe air (A9s). But I agree, my hand really looks like a 10 and villain could’ve put me in a real bad spot.

Seems like the consensus is:

Flop: CR
Turn: mostly bet
River: check/evaluate, mostly fold

You cannot defend that hand preflop with that ICM distribution.

Lmaooo wtf are u talking about

I agree it's not a defend.

If you're not leading the turn, maybe it isn't a defend. But as you describe villain, I think it is a defend and you lead turn and be prepared to call off his jam with draws.

Quit playing tournaments if you aren’t defending this to a min raise. Throwing away money if you are folding here.

Yeah this too.

Unless he's opening insanely wide like 55%+ of the grid.

BB probably cannot VPIP more than 40-45% of the time here.