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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 03-19-2017, 05:03 AM   #1
Westbrook_0
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Pot-sized Shove JJ Near Money Bubble of 15K Guaranteed ACR?

9 max...184 places left, 164 paid.

EP: Villain (60 BB)- 26, 23, 9 over 50 hands


MP: Hero (34 BB)
- 23 19 6

EP raises, Hero dealt JJ


...Calls.


?- Why risk your whole stack pre-flop near $ bubble with 34 BB vs big stack?


EP so far has TAG-like stats who seems genuinely aware of correct tournament strategy. He may 4 B shove A10s a a semi-bluff pre and even if I make call I'm barely better than a coin-flip.


?- Am I not in prime position to steal near bubble with 30 + BBs when EP with big stack folds in front of me? So why risk it all on a spot pre-flop where I'm likely only marginally ahead of his 4 bet range?



Hero calls...



Flop is K 8 7 two spades.


Villain bets half pot, Hero calls.



Turn is 10 diamonds...


Villian bets 3/4 pot, Hero calls with 17 BB left and 17 BB in pot.



River is Ace of spades (3 spades)



Villain checks, Hero shoves all-in.



- AQ, AJ, A9, KJ, KQ well within his range...all bet again frequently on turn with added equity.

- I think he bets two pair or better on river...I would of likely raised flop with any spades worse than a straight flush draw, so he doesn't fear spades.

-Vast majority of time in this spot hes not slow-playing although he may check to induce a bluff with weak two pair hands.

- He is either giving up with an underpair two barrell bluff or he rivered an Ace or has a weak two pair like K8 suited.

-I think it is most likely he has an Ace because an underpair can't win at showdown and he can apply pressure to me. Rivering an Ace gives him decent showdown value and he can expect me to check behind in this spot with 10 9 offsuit, KQ, KJ, maybe K9?


Basically...


- I think I represent 109 spades or Offsuit but also any slow-played set 10-7s.

- While it is unlikely him or I have flush, he may still consider it a possibility when I shove.

- AK is not completely outside my range if Villain thinks I will pot-control vs his big stack near bubble.


Conclusion

It is such an odd and very weak check on river and my gut was this wasn't the player to slowplay two pair. If I could increase my 32 BB stack by 50% with a shove when I don't expect a call often (especially near bubble), I will usually do it.

Villian had no reason to think I wasn't anything other than a normal TAG based on 50 hands of play.

I expect this shove to fold out most Aces and Kings which aren't two pair or better.

While half-pot is technically an option, I want to increase my fold equity vs someone who has never seen any of my river bet sizes before.
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Old 03-19-2017, 08:19 PM   #2
onehandatatime
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Re: Pot-sized Shove JJ Near Money Bubble of 15K Guaranteed ACR?

While I don't think it's the worst card to buff on you can probably expect to see a lot of hands looking you up. You're right villain probably did check to get to show down but it's also a good card for him to check back and turn his hand into a bluff catcher. I think there's more Ax hands in his range as well as any sets
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Old 03-20-2017, 04:01 AM   #3
nomalice
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Re: Pot-sized Shove JJ Near Money Bubble of 15K Guaranteed ACR?

and flatting is kinda okayish i believe. we re far ahead of his range if we flat + bubble factor

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Old 03-25-2017, 03:36 AM   #4
Westbrook_0
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Re: Pot-sized Shove JJ Near Money Bubble of 15K Guaranteed ACR?

Quote:
Originally Posted by onehandatatime View Post
While I don't think it's the worst card to buff on you can probably expect to see a lot of hands looking you up. You're right villain probably did check to get to show down but it's also a good card for him to check back and turn his hand into a bluff catcher. I think there's more Ax hands in his range as well as any sets
Yes you are right. I didn't anticipate him turning his ace into a snap-call bluff catcher. I think I undervalued my opponents ability to be a calling station in this spot as it is a decent spot for me to bluff.
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Old 03-25-2017, 03:38 AM   #5
Westbrook_0
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Re: Pot-sized Shove JJ Near Money Bubble of 15K Guaranteed ACR?

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Originally Posted by nomalice View Post
and flatting is kinda okayish i believe. we re far ahead of his range if we flat + bubble factor

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That was my thinking as well and we are also in position. Perhaps a better play may have been to make a small 3 bet?

We would be ahead of his 4 bet range if I thought he would be reasonably aggressive in this spot.
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Old 03-28-2017, 12:01 PM   #6
jjpregler
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Re: Pot-sized Shove JJ Near Money Bubble of 15K Guaranteed ACR?

I'm ok with flatting preflop. I will choose at times to flat EP raises with JJ instead of 3 betting at times as well. With these stacks I think I would sometimes choose to flat with AA/KK to set up a squeeze opportunity for the remaining players that I can snap off, so that would lend to calling with the rest of a typical 3 bet range.

The flop c-bet call is standard.

It is the turn where I start having concerns. What is his double barrel range? Ak/KQ is the bottom of his value range here. So all you beat is his bluff range. I'm not sure if I would call a pot committing bet with a bluff catcher on the turn. That leaves you guessing on the river.

Then he checks the river. I'm not sure you can get him to fold Kx here. He's pot committed with those. And the rest of his bluff range or any over zealous two barrels with marginal pairs you already beat by checking behind. Can you get called by QT, T9s or 99 here? Maybe, but that is a small part of his call range, you are better off checking, even if he will call with those.
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