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£5 live bubble spot sanity check

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03-23-2017 , 08:04 PM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,751

Pub game just now, blinds 1k/2k, started 10 handed with 8k stacks, so 80k or just over with chip ups in play, standard 50/30/20 payouts, down to 4 handed:

UTG - folds, has huge stack and everything in play that isn't mentioned so in the region of 50k
Button - shoves 13k, he's probably aware enough to recognise he can get me out with most things given SB's stack, but likely isn't doing this wide enough as he should
SB - fairly tight player, folds, has 5k, can't remember if that was before or after posting but he is quite short
Hero - has 12k including the blind so button just covers, wakes up with AQo

Our play is?

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03-24-2017 , 06:58 AM

expat

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 246

Given SB is short stack and will blind out or be all-in soon, this is a fold.

In game though, I probably call.
In a £5 pub game, I'm there to drink, chat and have some fun - profits are incidental for once.

If the game plays regularly with the same set of people, what you lose in EV here, you gain later by knowing more about playing styles and ranges.

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03-24-2017 , 07:12 AM

Colinb7

adept

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 731

Disgusted fold.

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03-24-2017 , 10:10 AM

LeaksSuck

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,859

TT+/AK or even JJ+ are correct depending on his range, AQo is debatable if he jams 100% (there are players who do in that spot) --> (FGS3 = thin fold ; ICM = pretty good call).

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03-26-2017 , 10:14 AM

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

With FGS (as usual) it depends how far ahead you look, if you do FGS 5 then AQo is back in again (this is assuming BTN jams 46% though).

In this game it probably it makes sense to fold it and let the other players do silly stuff on later hands. Also worth noting that the software says CO should jam 100%. Given that he clearly isn't, it probably means there is less urgency in terms of blinding off.

BTW we are all assuming no antes here, aren't we?

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03-27-2017 , 02:59 AM

LeaksSuck

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 1,859

FGS3 is superior to FGS5 when 4 handed for an obvious reason

But this is details. Being more risk averse than what that model suggests is good assuming that you perform better in future hands than villains do. This can go pretty far: If you know there are ppl who are happy to make -2% calls in the next hands, you're better off folding some hands that are no-brainer jams against 3 solid regs.

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03-27-2017 , 03:08 AM

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,751

No antes, maybe should add it's 15 minute levels and we only recently went up so it's not 1.5/3k for a few hands

Spoiler:

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03-28-2017 , 12:05 PM

cricketboy

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2016 Posts: 9

Sigh fold ICM

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