I think there are a lot of satellite spots that I need work on. 10 spots win a seat to The Party Millions Online $10K event.

We are 7 handed. Avg. stack is about 750K. We have an avg. stack (790K). there are a lot of stacks that are close to 700 - 500K. There are 2 stacks above 1M.

There are 15 players left.

Blinds 50k/100K w/ ante (It ends up being close to 240K in the pot with blinds and antes, I forgot the exact ante)


Preflop: We have K J in the BB
Shortstack that just got dusted vs another big stack shoves in MP for 325K, folds to hero in the BB and we....?

Considerations: We are likely ahead of their range, but we are going to lose some FE when we shove if we lose this hand and get short stacked. We have 2 stacks 700 - 800K to our left. Shoving into them is a bit sucky. Calling and winning here would put us 2nd in chips if we win.

I don't think I would look at my cards and just call.

OK maybe I would look, but I would hate myself if I had 72o or 83o. Then I might fold. Often, in these spots, as I'm about to say "I fold" my hands push in the chips.

fold

Call has to be very +ev vs his range. What percentage are you putting him on?


Edit: other considerations - have you been over-folding, particularly from your bb? Could this be a tilt shove after losing a big pot?

Call. I don’t think it’s close

Calling is +EV chip wise, but we are playing a satellite. We have an average stack. The goal is try and increase our stack slightly or at least preserve it. If we lose here, we will be shoving any two cards to try and pick up the blinds/antes. So if we lose we are putting ourselves in a spot where now we might be the ones to get called light.

You’re against a range that potentially contains 100% of hands, based on your description of circumstances. You’re ahead the vast majority of the time and dominate most of his Kx and Jx. I’m not sure how you could pass this up - it’s a great opportunity to chip-up in a structure where a few BB can make all the difference, and if you lose then so be it. You made a very +ev decision and, as we know, these decisions will profit long-term.

And even if you’re not properly rolled for these sats, I still think it’s a call.

Plus, having an average stack is hardly a consideration when that stack is 8bb and 5 players still need to bust for us to win a ticket. We have to take our chances in this spot.

This is the crux of the issue. We’re not close enough to the bubble to pass on such a +EV spot given the stack sizes