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Party M Guaranteed Live, busted draw facing a river donk bet Party M Guaranteed Live, busted draw facing a river donk bet

11-19-2018 , 03:54 PM
starting stacks are 1,000,000

Villain 1 is a young kid. Probably a mid stakes grinder. We saw him play the satellites. Villain 2 is probably a recreational player.

blinds 3K/6K w/ 6K ante. We are 8 handed.

Hero has 86
Villain 1 raise to 18K from UTG, hero calls, Sb raises to 75K, Villain 1 calls, hero calls

Flop: At9
Check, check, Hero bets 125K, Villain 2 follds, Villain 1 calls,

Turn: J
Check, hero bets 200K, call

River 4
Villain leads for 325K (he has 350K back)..... hero?

We started the hand with 1.2 million, villain 2 also had 1.2 million.

It's such a weird line for him to take. He can't really hand KQ here, can he?
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11-19-2018 , 04:45 PM
Fold pre, fold again pre, x flop, x back turn, fold river. 86s is a sexy hand but we're so capped here vs tight ranges on a board where we don't have many strong hands and don't block anything. I saw a relevant meme earlier which made me chuckle

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11-19-2018 , 05:19 PM
I believe I have already fold pre but since we limp and disrespect UTG raise here, SB 4 bet 75k and it is understandable to call with a million to one pot odds but still, I might opt to fold even with good odds. Again, why don't just check back on flop and ready to give up since we're so capped here with tight ranges board? It is kinda weird when Villain leads the river here, but we don't even have a bluff catcher and I believe Villain have it. Even if Hero jam, it is less likely Villain going to fold even with only K's, Q's or even Ax. This explain why he check the flop and Hero limp already exposing himself with a weak range.
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11-19-2018 , 05:54 PM
Guys saying this initially a fold pre is ridiculous. We have a deep stack and we are in position. I forgot to add that we are in MP. We came to play.

Against the big re-raise maybe we can argue that it is a fold. But we have position on both players. One of which has a big hand (at least we think they do).

I don't think our range is as capped as you say. Why can't we have AQ/AK/AT here?
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11-19-2018 , 06:10 PM
Easy fold. What makes you think you can even move him off kq at this point by raising 375k into a 1.6mil pot after he leads river unless your image is a nit? (Not that he has kq in this spot -thats just wishful thinking.)
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11-19-2018 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhatPots
Guys saying this initially a fold pre is ridiculous. We came to play.

I don't think our range is as capped as you say. Why can't we have AQ/AK/AT here?
No way you have a nitty image.
Why cant he have aq-a10 as played?
Party M Guaranteed Live, busted draw facing a river donk bet Quote
11-19-2018 , 06:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhatPots
Guys saying this initially a fold pre is ridiculous. We have a deep stack and we are in position. I forgot to add that we are in MP. We came to play.

Against the big re-raise maybe we can argue that it is a fold. But we have position on both players. One of which has a big hand (at least we think they do).

I don't think our range is as capped as you say. Why can't we have AQ/AK/AT here?
I believe someone with experience reading here already know that Hero was MP and in position. It is understandable that playing such deep in tournament, many player limp suited connector or gap and again, it is still understandable that you called 4 bet raise because of good pot odds and hand still have some play ability on flop. Once again, it is still understandable you bet flop since both Villain check and hoping leads on flop repping tptk, sets or bluff.

But the fact is, when you get called on a flop and you does not have any blockers with a board that more advantage to UTG opener, I believe give up on turn is a much better choice. Again, you are very aggressive on turn betting roughly 35% pot hoping Villain to fold here and still get called. Do you expect Villain to fold here with a jam bluff although it is kinda weird he leads the river? Your pre-action and your turn bet shows so many weakness. You expect him to call with nothing on turn and fold your 350k raise into a 1.6 m pot? What a wishful thinking.
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11-19-2018 , 07:24 PM
Maybe I'm a nit then, 86s would be bottom of my calling range here. I would prefer it if it was the recreational player opening UTG instead. And about being capped, yeah you're not being completely capped - but it was based on the assumption that you 3b a decent % with AQ/AK/JJ/possibly TT. I also assumed you're not call/calling KQo/ATo/AJo so our nutty hands are limited in terms of combos and UTG still has all the sets. I still disagree with trying to blow him off a hand on the river without strong reads.

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11-19-2018 , 08:03 PM
You lost. Move on to the next hand and yes, he can have KQ and more.

I'd probably check back turn as played. Don't like this combo for a triple and he has too many hands than can withstand a turn barrel whether theoretically correctly or out of stubbornness.
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11-20-2018 , 06:44 AM
I definitely don't think it's ridiculous to fold pre vs a UTG 8 handed opener. This is at the bottom of my range and therefore if I played the hand I'd likely 3bet. Villain as described doesn't really sound like someone I want to exploit with a flat.

As played I think you fold river. Think you only have 6 combos that shove for value (TT/99) and you're laying 5.4-1 on a call* so we don't really need to find many bluff combos at all. I'm not sure we can find any bluff combos that block the nuts (KJ/QJ want to check the turn and AQ might be good enough to call river), but even if not, I'd randomize by bluffing with my worst absolute strength hands. 86s is not at the bottom of your preflop range, so we can get to the river with worse than 8 high and bluff those instead. Fold.

*The way you described the bet sizes, I can't tell if villain has 1.075 million or 1.2 million. I assumed he actually did only have 350k behind and thus started the hand with 1.075 million.
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