overpair and bad card hits on the river- to call or not to call? $109 - MTT Poker Strategy

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overpair and bad card hits on the river- to call or not to call? $109

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10-22-2018 , 12:29 PM

wain

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 82

PokerStars, $100 + $9 - Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker - https://upswingpoker.com/replayer/5247x3vDv

No info on villain.

UTG: 4,834 (161 bb)
UTG+1: 4,498 (150 bb)
MP: 8,988 (300 bb)
MP+1: 5,000 (167 bb)
LP: 1,809 (60 bb)
CO: 4,858 (162 bb)
BU: 5,054 (168 bb)
SB: 4,950 (165 bb)
BB (Hero): 4,078 (136 bb)

Pre-Flop: (81) Hero is BB with K♦ K♥
UTG calls 30, 7 players fold, Hero raises to 120, UTG calls 90

Flop: (291) 8♣ 7♠ T♣ (2 players)
Hero bets 240, UTG calls 240

Turn: (771) 4♦ (2 players)
Hero bets 630, UTG calls 630

River: (2,031) K♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets 2,010, hero?

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10-23-2018 , 05:54 AM

BiggAli

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 198

I'd sigh and call river as played. A set of K is too strong to be folded here. He could have a missed straight draw or a lower set. It's okay to lose in this spot if he's made his flush...

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10-25-2018 , 06:33 AM

FeFighFoeFum

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 9

Why are we checking?

Bet/fold way better than x/call in this spot. And if u checked u should snap this bet as he will have missed straight draws and he will value bet worse (sets, 2pairs) (and dont start with explaining he shouldnt go this big otr with this and that, he limped UTG from 150bb+ stack, snap call pls)

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11-01-2018 , 01:44 AM

wowsooooted

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 5,077

id x/c

He can have enough value cuts and missed draws to make it ok imo, we only need to win 33%

dont like b/f as we shutdown all his river bluffs

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11-06-2018 , 03:34 PM

user12345

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,737

^^
What are "all his river bluffs"?

Doubt value cuts float for pot.

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11-06-2018 , 07:36 PM

wowsooooted

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 5,077

Quote:

Originally Posted by user12345

^^
What are "all his river bluffs"?

Doubt value cuts float for pot.

We proly have to assume 9x and QJ can potentially bluff river at non 0% when the flush completes as the club is much better for his range then ours.

flopped set could potenially value cut river, depends tho if he raises these flop / turn on wetish texture

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