https://youtu.be/L4jBCFd3shw

Here is a youtube link that someone posted in the Worst Folds of All Time thread in NVG.

Hand starts at about 2:56:00. Its the GGMillions 10k from 6 months ago.

Doesn't seem horrible tbh, just wanted to to run it by here and see what everyone thinks.


Its def not a slam dunk call and Nanonoko is kinda out of line with his commentary imo, although I know that he was a cash game player so ICM probably wasn't something he studied too much.

1) A medium stack is 3betting into the chip leader opening utg. Even if he is opening very wide, the sb still has to stay in line and wait for the shorties to bust, so his range should still be relatively tight (ATo is wide but its also a solid 3bet bluff candidate with blockers)

2) No fold equity. AKo is only at best 50% against the sb 3betting range, probably closer to 45%.

3) 3 other 10bb shorties who are about to go thru the blinds, so there is a decent chance one of them busts this orbit.

I think you mean the hand at about 2:36. It's an awful fold, obviously there's no fold equity and ICM is a giant factor. But you're a shortie -- 9 bbs, and if AJ/AQ is in SBs range (much less AT, or other suited A bluffs), then you are a decent equity favorite. Go for the gusto!

sry 2:36:00.

Just got home from work and ran it in ICMizer. Results may surprise a lot of people.

Not too surpised by this. FGS is the main reason we are calling, as the double up us in much, much better shape to move up the ladder.

Awful fold. Shockingly bad.

lol check the KK hand straight after it

not at all surprised he hated on the AK spot, but -$6500 decision all the same and he’s prob misranging UTG and hence SB. Probably got stuck in some headspace where he could only see weaker Ax in UTG and premium pp in SB (coz blockers)

Yea... the commentators were so happy that his KK got sucked out on... Nits deserve bad beats I guess. I feel that all the time, I make a close fold in a spot and if I win a flip next I conclude it was a good fold and if I lose a 70/30 it was def a bad fold.


But I agree he possibly misranged the sb most likely. He knows that utg has been opening a ton but sb is in ICM hell and shouldn't be getting out of line regardless. I assume he expects to see AQ almost never and thats hes against a range of AK, JJ+, and sometimes a hand like ATo or AJo that has good blockers. He also may have just decided "I'm calling AKo 90%" and rolled low.

Still as far as commentary goes, I would have liked to see some ICM analysis and an acknowledgement that this isn't the usual <10bb, dont fold AK situation. Its actually a really close spot. Barely worth 10% of AA, which is an ICM standard that gets used in a lot of coaching content that Ive seen. (Though in a $10k, maybe you can't pass up even the slightest edge.)

A couple hands before that the co minr/folded off a 10bb stack. Thats seemed waaay worse than this fold here. (Even if it saved him in that moment). And being results oriented, they just moved past it.

Pretty terrible fold, but easy for me to say when I don’t have hundreds of thousands on the line.

Atrocious, yea. WOAT? No.