$200 turbo event with 300 runners, 150 left

Hero 80BB just shy of 50th birthday, good looking, loved by all
Opponent 30BB, 30s probably male, needs a wash, long beard, may want to be a pirate, seems competent and raises pre when he should

Hero has stacked up early with quads v boat and other stuff
Hero completes SB 7s5d, BB checks

Flop As Js Ts
Hero bets 1.5BB, BB calls
ok so Plan A failed.

Turn Kh
gotta love a good scare card, think I just found a Plan B
hero checks, BB bets 3BB, Hero raises to 8.5BB
Cop that beardy.
BB calls. I doubt he was betting with air and the quick in tempo call suggested pair+fd not a Q.

The plan at this point was to bet 1.5BB again on a spade river, 8BB on anything else.

River 6h
Hero bets 8BB
V folds

In game it just felt like V had a mid strength hand that would call 3 streets, so it needed a little extra zing hence a c/r turn and value sized river. Felt like in principle there should be enough hands in V range that get right to the end and give up in the face of a c/r then scary value sizing.

Thoughts?

NH

Glad you sent him to the showers!

Nice bluff, he won't love you anymore if you show it to him.

I'm lacking on BvB study as of late, but are these really the best spots youre going to find in a $200 turbo? On the surface the play looks fine and probably plus chips.

Funny plan A fail. The scenario for this bluff is ideal and seems like you made all the right moves. Seems like a standard spot given the opponent and board. Glad a brick hit the river. The read on the Turn call tho- very intuitive.

If i had to guess I would say you came up with plan B only after you saw his turn Bet, not necessarily when the K came, but after he bet.

Flop is...interesting.

Maybe ~15% of your range is Ax or better; maybe ~5% of your range are flushes.

This coming from among pretty well-capped (you should have few to no 2pr or sets) and absurdly wide (well over 800 combos) range.

These conditions leave you little choice but to play things super close to the vest--start off w/ a range check IMO

It's not that betting is horrible, it's really not, the same constraints are also acting on V's range such that he's gotta fold a ton even for small sizing, but someone truly astute (I wouldn't have guessed the equilibrium strategy rangecheck myself) is going to know something's up and combinatorically you have a lot more air than value and it makes as much sense (i.e. no sense) in theory to stab with either air or value and IDK what you look like IRL but I imagine you have a villainous glint in your eye so I'm pretty sure a sicko is gonna know you're extremely exploitably weak here. But I highly doubt a mortal will be able to tell the same.

AP, turn is such a nutted card to barrel I think x is terrible but if you did x as part of a 9-dimensional exploit whereby you decided to "value-bluff" V (you knew he'd b/c turn too wide AND call river too narrow) then, I mean you're on another plane of existence if that was your plan so def barrel that turn, there's just not much he can do with most of his range. And shoving river because whatever Jx he's arriving at river with after being barreled are never, ever, in a million years heroing even though they ought to once in a while. After all, it made as little sense for you to lead a flush as it did 7s5x, you can still just as easily rep value OR air--at least, if I were BB, I'd be thinking you could rep that.


BTW--x/f AP. Don't see enough thinvaluing of Ax or stabbing with air going on.

^ how are you constructing my pf SB range?
It’s close to 100% of combos at these effective stacks and I can certainly hit this flop at a high frequency, hence the lead. If I thought my range was capped on this texture I’d certainly never go after it in this way.

Ofc the thread is a bit of fun and somewhat in response to the idea that all old(er) players are tight weak nits with 0.01% bluffs in these spots. Personally I think this is a bad bluff and risks too much - but I may be wrong.

In that case, I would have misranged you preflop.

LOL...did you end up running deep in this? I was out 3 off the money

15th I think
EP raise, SB jam, I have JJ in BB with 8BB, you know the rest

One of these alone is bad but both are a disaster. Fold pf even if SB only completes . . .