Final 4 tables of the ACR Million Dollar Sunday.

Villain is on a major heater and I havent seen him lose a single pot in a couple hours, one of the chip leaders. I looked him up on sharkscope and it appears to be a $20 average buy in player who either won a satty or is taking a shot.

Villain opens the btn, hero defends with Ah5h off a 35bb stack.

Flop is JhJ3h. Hero c/c a half pot cbet. Flop c/r is possible, but I like playing fds that have other showdown value more passively.

Turn is JhJ3h9h. Turn checks thru.

River is JhJs3h9h9s. Hero bets about half pot to get value from Ahi hands and TT,QQ-AA. Villain goes into the tank and shoves. Hero?????

River is the only street that I find interesting.
1) Should we bet to get value from Ahi and overpairs or check to induce a bluff from an underpair or some other Qhi, Khi hand.

2) What do we make of the raise? Its hard to imagine villain checking back a
J just because the flush came thru but maybe if hes playing way out of his
depth then he might. I also wasnt sure if villain was capable of shoving a
9 to target my flushes. In the end I decided that I had plenty of Jx on the
river and was comfortable folding the nut flush. I also just didn't really think that this player could pull the trigger on a big bluff here with 77 or 88.

Some other reads besides on a heater and ABI might help. As for the information given, I'd fold here pretty comfortably. We have our own FHs to call with. We don't block any value, and if somehow Villain might turn AT into a bluff, for example, we unblock that.

yea my bad I forgot stats. He was like 34/26/7 over 80 hands, but I thinks thats more a result of a heater than his actual ranges. It was down to like 28/24 a bit later by the time I busted.

He opened A5s in mp and called a 15bb shove from the co.

The only thing that seemed out of line was he opened 83s on the button with the sb having a 10bb stack. SB called and I called. He checked back a bd flush draw on the flop and then shoved over the sb's half pot bet on the turn with a fd, despite no fold equity. Binked that heart on the river like a boss tho.

x/c river.

I don’t think we’re getting any value with our bet so I’m inclined to check/call as well.

As played good fold. If he’s bluffing I guess you gotta just tip your hat and move onto the next hand. The spot’s so big we need to preserve our stack.

Man, if you need a backer to next week’s Million lmk, seems like you make a deep run every week! Well done.

I noticed in this hand you didn’t give villain’s stack size either, you just said he’s a chip leader. I think it’s helpful to know the stack sizes of all players involved in a hand.

I would 3bet/fold this hand from button vs bb spot. I think flatting is lower variance however not a fan of passive play deep in a tourny where stacks are shallow. I would probably make it 3.5x his open oop and play flop if he just peels. Ez fold if he 4bet piles. I might make it 3x his open if it’s a bigger open size.

If he peels, on said flop I would cbet and then like turn most likely. I would set up cbet sizing that you can bet around pot on turn as an AI.

Btw A5 and a4 suited are probably my favorite 3bet fold hands. If you flop an A, normal can pot control by checking on Axx flops. I see pot controlling as best move with weak aces generally as you almost never get action unless villian has a better A

So, jkpoker’s advice might change on how many bbs button has, which is why I hope you start to include actual villain stack sizes in bbs moving forward. You post really cool hands but we need to know stack sizes of all players involved.

If button is a chip leader with 50bbs, I also like a 3!, but bigger than 3.5 or 3x. 4x minimum. If he has 100bbs, I prefer a call.

Also, I think A5/A4s type hands work better as a 4 bet jam than as a 3!. But 3! is fine from bb vs. button depending on his stack size.

yea I post these at work so I cant use a hand history converter. I just try to include as much info as I can remember and keep it readable.

I can go either way pf. Just in this spot I didn't really expect a 3bet to work very often, and a couple orbits ago I 3bet his btn open with A rag and folded after he shoved my cbet down my throat on a 873r board.

Preflop 3! does not lose much, but Axs is really way too strong a hand to 3!/fold from the BB against the button. You want to see the flop cheap a little ahead of BTN's range.

OTR, the nut flush is just a bluff catcher and leading is bad. As played, probably fold.

2, do you think check/call is better than bet/fold here? I don't see it. Villain is snap checking back with his overpairs that might call your bluff, and will never bluff themselves. They might even talk themselves into calling A high here, as bad as that may seem (I have made such calls myself).

This does not look like a great hand to bluff catch with.

I too thought there was a greater chance at getting called by an overpair or A hi than getting an underpair to bluff at it, which is why I bet for value.

We dont block his bluffing hands but do kind of block his calling range, so thats in argument for checking. A hand like 7h8h would be a specifically bad c/c bluff catch while a hand like QhTh is a really good one. This combo is kinda in the middle but does prob lean toward bluffcatch in theory when I think about it.

TBH, this is the decision point that I find most interesting. c/cing or value betting the river here.

FWIW, my PIO sim mirrored your line, bet/folding the river. It even preferred your size; I gave it 1/4, 1/2, pot, jam. It thought the call/fold was close, a 0.2BB mistake to call. That is with no ICM, even though we are in a spot where ICM isn't big, it is still a factor.

I also ran a PIO sim last night. Kinda hard to simulate it perfectly because PIO is betting small with 100% of its range on the flop, while he used a half pot sizing, so I am not sure what % he is cbetting. I just used the small sizing for the sim.

Then on the turn PIO almost always bets with Jx, which I am not sure villain is doing in practice.

Because the btn is betting all Jx on turn my sim actually liked a full pot bet on the river with Ah5h although it did check sometimes and its kinda close. Once raised it prefers a fold.

I guess I am fine with how I played it, all things considered.

Yes, when a Villain (or hero) takes a non used size, the results get funny. I did stick with his 1/2 pot on the flop, that is probably why my sim preferred a 1/2 pot on the river. Replaying it with a 1/4 pot on the flop gets the same results you saw, which is hero bets pot on the river, not only with his hand, but with most of his betting range. Now calling off is a 0.4BB error.