Beginning of second level of two day $350 live tournament -- 2500/5000/500. About 50 players left, 38 get paid. I've been snug as a bug, stealing one blind (really card dead), but slightly below average stack (140k). I'm a middle aged (44) white guy wearing WSOP hat.

Tight older player with slightly smaller stack size opens for 11k at UTG+1. His line is almost the same as mine, a couple of opens with blinds folding. I'm holding 99 on the button. Folded to me. I call.

Flop comes 104:10

Villain bets 11k. I raise to 24k. Villain insta-shoves. Me???????

Of course, welcome all (constructive) comments/criticisms of preceeding play.

Results to follow.

EDIT:

It is the second level of the SECOND DAY of two day tournament.


Looking forward to meaningful replies as this is my first post here.

Thanks

First of all, welcome to the forum.

Where I would diverge is on the flop I would just call and see what happens on the turn. I am raising here only with a T or a flush draw.

Once you raise with 99 you allow villain to play perfectly against you, OOP. He is never calling with worse IMO. By shoving he gets rid of your positional advantage. Had you just called you keep all of villain's bluffs in his range while risking maybe 6 outs to beat you.

Once you raise and get re-raised I think it is fair to say that the vast majority of the time villain has an overpair, a T, or two overs and a flush draw. You are not ahead really against any of these. But your overall equity (and surviving this hand) warrants a fold IMO.

Thanks. I think that is good advice. I made the min-raise to see where I was, but I guess it may have backfired. I was afraid of letting another over hit on the turn and have him continue, although you would think that the two tens would probably slow him down after I called.

It's an easy fold.
Villain range is super strong (UTG+1 open, Cbet to defense his hand and a shove an insta shove after your raise).
You are beating only bluffs, and even against Ah Kh, your equity is only 50%.

Consider ICM , I would fold and keep looking for better spots with my 20BB stack.

I think raising the flop is a mistake as other players have said. It is unlikely that he will fold an overpair to your raise, so you are going to have to barrel multiple streets to get him to fold an overpair (If he will fold it). It does suck if he has AK/AQ and he hits his card on the turn. When he raises the flop you can assume a range of:
a T, a flush draw with overs, flush draw (lower), Big pair, or a smaller pair (unlikely) plus we can add in a 2 - 5% chance that he is spazzing out with a random hand. Best case scenario is that he has a low flush draw.

Thanks everyone. I did in fact muck after much tanking, putting him on an over pair or two overs and a flush draw. I told the player to my left I had pocket nines after he showed them on next hand when board flopped 9. I said that's what I had last time. he said and you mucked? What do you think he had? (Player to my left very young, laggy player.

Anyway, I was cooled a few hands later with QQ against KK and hit the rails without cashing. Don't think I could have done anything different with QQ -- all in to raise, reraise by SB.

Awesomely succinct analysis IMO.

We have to consider that our small raise on the flop induces villain to 3bet shove flush draws even more, the only part of his 3betting range that we have coinflip equity against. By calling, we let ourselves keep positional advantage as well as widen the strong parts of our perceived range on the turn. Compared to villain, you will have more information, as well as more option to make plays or make balanced folds. Overcards hitting shouldn't be a concern, as he should be more scared about you hitting them in position. He'll be playing blind, you can simply respond by folding turn more often if he barrels on an overcard.

Preflop call is good, raising a tight players open from early position would be a mistake w 99s, which is a good hand but not one you should be looking to go crazy w given the opponent and early position. I like playing a pot w the power of the button for all streets, and pot control preflop is good.

On the flop I'd much rather a flat call than a raise. Raising is essentially turning your hand into a bluff when you don't need to. If we call and a brick comes and he keeps betting then we can start to reconsider, but I think I like calling the flop in case hes cbetting w AK/AQ or something of that nature, and will give up after stabbing.

On a 10 10 4 board w 99s in position I'm going to generally be looking to get to a cheap showdown and hopefully survive a favorable runout where my middling pair holds up. I'm not really looking to inflate the pot or raise to turn my hand into a bluff or raise for value. You're in a way ahead/way behind situation where he either has a 10 or overpair and has you crushed, or overcards/pure air which you can still beat.

As played you have to fold on the flop once he jams on you. You beat almost nothing, and unless you have a sick live read that he is going crazy on you w air you are very likely way behind. I hope/assume you folded the flop ?

Betting/Raising/Calling/Checking to "see where I'm at" is not the best approach to playing a hand. Your bet, raise, check or call needs to accomplish something like value, bluffing, semi bluffing/blocking and/or protection. In this case to "see where you're at" didn't really accomplish much except let villain play perfect against you, and for all we know you could have been ahead or behind. For example, if villain just called your raise do you know where you're at? They could be slow playing quads or a boat and did your raise really let you know where you were at in the hand, they may have been bluffing. Not trying to be rude or anything, but this was a mistake a lot of beginners make when first starting out.

yes flat and see what happens on the turn

What is the consensus play if we call, the turn is a complete blank and he bets 25K?

@ above, probably to fold? If this player is betting 2 or even 3 streets it's safe to assume that he can beat a pair of 9's. If he has 2 overs and a flush draw he may slow it down so you can might be able to call 1 more street after the flop in the hopes he'll shut down.

As played I believe you answered your own question with just the word 'tight', do you really think this type of player is re-raising you all in as a pure bluff or even semi bluff? Was his stack size around yours? If so and he's putting most of his chips at risk, I almost discount all bluffs and even semi's, being that close to the money you almost have to give him credit for something. But as everyone already stated, call flop, re-evaluate the turn and if he bets again, fold and wait for a better spot, unless you want to call him down all the way because he will most likely bet river for value again.

Glad you have the question mark because I don't know either. Problem is that even my grandmom might fire 2-3 barrels against a condensed range in today's game.

Call and see what happens on the turn usually means we have no idea what to do on the turn. If seeing what happens on the turn typically means we are just folding the turn if he bets then "keeping in his bluffs" has no relevance.

I'm not sure I'm automatically following the herd on this one. Once villain bets on the flop and we call the pot is 34K. If he has a hand like Ah Kc he has a pretty substantial equity of around 30% but our equity share of the pot is around 24K. And we are investing 13K to preserve it. And if he never calls with worse then he can be exploited, but admittedly he almost never calls with worse.. but that's fine.

I don't really view this raise as one to "find out where I'm at". It really serves the purpose of allowing us to realize our equity and denying our opponent's his.

I would call again. If river bricks and he fires a third, we can safely fold our hand

sounds reasonable, but this could be considered calling to "see where I'm at", right?

Again, it's reasonable but I'm not feeling great about it, calling a tight older with around 20% of our stack with two outs if behind. We could work out the math to figure out how often he has to be bluffing but it's probably a close situation.

Against this particular player profile, tight older gent who is less apt than others to fire multiple barrels I think a small raise has a lot of merit. Though against other players who fire twice often a call on flop may be better.

Think calling twice is the std play vs most players when the turn bricks, vs a super nit I could possibly get behind folding turn, but I really dont think raising anywhere on flop/turn has any merit for the reasons Mr Rick outlined

Sure there are reasons to raise the flop, denying somewhat substantial equity for
our opponent is a pretty good one.

Mr Rick says no one will call worse, if that’s true than raising any two cards is probably profitable.

The “herd” always goes back and forth on what is standard. Think it’s important to keep an open mind and spend time analyzing the math.

Also I would not consider someone who doesn’t auto fire a second barrel with 25% of their stack when the board doesn’t change a super nit

The question on this flop isn't what we do specifically with 99, but what we should do with our entire range here. Considering we shouldn't have too many overpairs (we would often 3-bet with JJ+), our range is generally going to be Tx, middle pairs and flush draws as hands that can continue.

When we raise, we're basically saying we have Tx or a flush draw the vast majority of the time. Could we put 99 into that raising range so we can have more flush draws as bluffs? Sure, but I don't think it's necessary and you could also just not raise at all if you were so inclined. Flat-calling protects your entire range and allows you to stack an overpair pretty easily if you do have a Tx.

I think I would call flop and decide turn with 99, close between call and fold to a double barrel as a tight older guy's range here from UTG+1 is going to be heavily weighted towards overpairs. Tight older guys aren't going to have 76s or K8s that they're raising from EP very often so the number of flush draw combos shouldn't be that high.

well, what I'm thinking about is this, against this particular villain on this particular type flop I think we can almost have an exploitative raise with all of our range.

1) Yes, he has a lot of overpairs, but combo wise a lot of over two overcards as well. Against a 8% open range we have 54% equity on this flop.

2) If the turn is a tough and close decision, I see no reason to let villain retain his equity. Six outs plus maybe a backdoor flush/ and or straight is somewhat substantial, around 30% or so.

It's a good approach to play your hands within your range. So by that I mean, have an idea where this hand is relative to all the hands you were willing to call pre flop on the button.

Speaking from how I'd play this spot, I'd consider 99 to be one of the stronger hands I'd likely have on this flop. I'll have some better hands like suited Tx, and then I'd just be straight up folding some hands like 98s to a UTG flop bet. Then, going into the turn, I'd have a range of like midpairs, trips, flushdraws and maybe some Axs back door flush draws or maybe some KQcc type stuff. Anyway, on a blank turn like a 2, 99 is still far up my range relative to the draws and other pocket pairs that I'd call with. On a heart turn however, now I can have a lot of flushes and such in addition to boats and therefor, 99 moves down in my overall range towards the bottom and now I might consider folding.

Ok, this is well articulated and I think I get the gist. If we are folding near the top of our range we are potentially highly exploitable, right? But I have some follow-ups

1. It appears that this is most relevant to cash game situations with familiar opponents with stacks almost always >100bb effective. MTTs are a way different animal; tables are breaking, effective stack sizes are always changing and in general shorter, and there is more an attitude of chip preservation. Regardless of where we are in our range, can't feel great about a tight older gent tossing in a second barrel with around 25% of his stack. This hand would be way different if the effective stacks were greater where villain only had to put out say 10% on turn. I think it's aspects like this why some great players think HUDs are more harmful than useful in MTTS.

2.Why wouldn't we look to exploit him first by raising a hand like your previously mentioned 98s on the flop?

Assuming villain opens with AQo+, ATs+, 88+, he has 74 combos with our hand and this flop. If he only continues with a made hand greater than ours or a flush draw he is only continuing with 30/74 or 40% combos.

In regards to point 1, that’s my default approach when playing any hand. To look at all the possible holdings I can have in a situation and then make a decision based around that. This kind of approach is ensures I don’t make many blow ups. It’s not uncommon for someone to call a 3bet and then station some guy with AA with some weak holding because that player had beaten them in a few pots already.

When defending, you’ll face a bet of a certain size, calculate yours pot odds and evaluate what sort of frequency you should be looking to continue vs that bet size. Then comes what you have alluded to, things like information on the player and the positions which might allow you to make exploitative, but good decisions. I tend to try to play each hand as well as I can and not focus so much on chip preservation.

Looking at point 2, you could definitely work in some raises to make this with. I think the kind of hands you might like to use are your weakest flush draws and then pick out some KJcc, KQcc, QJcc etc to mix in with some Tx type holdings. You always need to know what your value range is before working in bluffs. These holdings i’ve selected have a lot more playability on later streets and have better removal vs the Tx in the opponents range of hands.

The range you have given for the opponent is very conservative, i’d expect it to be wider than this.