PokerStars, $40 + $4 - Hold'em No Limit - 20/40 (6 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker - https://upswingpoker.com/replayer/1247wZPOo

What do we do on the river here?
No info on villain.

UTG: 5,000 (125 bb)
UTG+1: 4,914 (123 bb)
MP: 4,219 (105 bb)
MP+1: 6,191 (155 bb)
CO (Hero): 3,381 (85 bb)
BU: 4,595 (115 bb)
SB: 5,361 (134 bb)
BB: 4,764 (119 bb)

Pre-Flop: (108) Hero is CO with 5♥ 5♣
1 fold, UTG+1 calls 40, 2 players fold, Hero raises to 160, 3 players fold, UTG+1 calls 120

Flop: (428) J♥ 5♠ 8♥ (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 285, UTG+1 calls 285

Turn: (998) K♠ (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 665, UTG+1 calls 665

River: (2,328) 6♦ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets 560, Hero?

With no info on villain the river bet feels like a blocker (when he misses the flush and has either the J or K pair) or bait when he rivers the straight. If he also has a set he's likely to check/call the river. Either way I think you flat since when he's behind he's not putting in more chips and when he's ahead he can shove if you raise and you should hate calling off for your tourney life so early with 6th-nuts.

His line really doesn't make much sense. If they were bluffing with hearts surely would bet more.1/4 pot is just too small. Same if they had 88 for value. Although I believe they would have raised flop or turn with this hand due to the flush draw present.

Likely hand is a J that is making a blocking bet or maybe J6 as they did limp. I would raise this all day long our hand is too strong to just call. I believe too often if we called here they would just have a J.

What did you do in the end?

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I would call. V's line does not make any sense and it's hard to see that hands we beat would call if we raise.

Considering the SPR on the river, I would normally jam here. Villain limped pre (which should be a warning sign to us) and can have all sorts of weird stuff like rivered two pair (86/65/K6s) plus random Kx that will certainly consider calling.

I can also see raising river small with the intention of exploitatively folding to a jam being a consideration if you think the villain could be straightforward and only 3-bet jam with straights or better sets.

Sure we have to be worried about 97 and 66, but that honestly might be a small part of villain's potential calling range here - I think other sets and two pair hands would've played more aggressively before this point.

As played jamming and feeling happy about it.

Bigger OTF, like pot. Board is fairly wet, especially vs a limp/call range, and I see very few hands he's calling OTF for your sizing that he's not also calling for pot

We have 2k behind with 3k in the middle after he bets no way we can r/f

He shouldn't have 66 here and I think its unlikely he called 2 streets with a gutty 47,97 so I think we can go ahead and jam and hope he thinks hes priced in and levels himself into a call

Mostly Kx of hearts or some random 2 pair

dislike pre a lot

as played very easy jam for the reasons wowsooted mentioned.

speaking of...do players on this level often limp with the large stack? I heard somewhere that nowadays in cash games you can often face the elaborate limp/fold, limp/raise, limp/call strategy that aims to exploit people who don't know how to play against those ranges..

It would have to be a massive explo play that I'd only do against the most straightforward of players, the category of which a player who is limping UTG may fall into.

As I said, I do think we jam the vast, vast majority of the time here.

The river is a jam. You are missing way to much value just calling here.

I don't understand the rationale for going for thin value with a river shove when the risk of being wrong is busting.

its really simple actually, villains range has an awful lot more hands in his range that we beat than hands that beat us. we just leave too much value on the table if we just call in a spot like this. unlucky if we run into a better hand but it doesn’t matter at all really what he shows up with in that particular hand.

I understand the concept but if the chances that villain calls with any of those worse hands is negligible, and he can have better hands in his range, the risk/reward ratio seems rather unfavorable.

Sorry but this analysis is just completely wrong. If this was the case you would never play a hand because of the "chance" someone has a better hand than yourself. That is not the way to look at it. You have to range an opponent based on there actions up to this point. Then make a correct decision based on that range and your hand while also taking into account your own range.

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No that's not what I'm saying at all. You have to take into account the chances of getting called by worse in order to determine whether a value bet on the river is +ev. What I'm saying is, if villain is unlikely to call with worse when you shove, and when he does have better you are out of the tourney, doesn't the risk of shoving outweigh the benefit of the thin value? In this spot calling has a smaller potential benefit than shoving but also significantly less risk when villain has you beat.

Huh? I like the sizing and iso raise pre. Not sure how you can dislike pre here by hero? As played, maybe you can increase your flop or turn bet sizing but it’s hard in a hand like this to say you played it incorrect. The river, your raise is going to lead to folds your hand beats generally and only be called or shoved by better hands. Maybe 2 pair will call your bet so idk how we can say this raise is bad. I feel the donk lead on the river singles massive strength as opponent doesn’t want a check back.

As played, I’m prolly raising river and sigh losing. I feel you miss out on value against most hands and only one hand has you beat in his range. I don’t see villain taking this check/call line with better sets.

I think because villain limped pre, there are enough hands in villain's range that will sigh-call here (rivered 2p, some Kx) that we miss out on value if we just call. I also think that most better hands (better sets, straights) are very unlikely to take villain's line.

I guess I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the big picture tourney ev here. How do you determine that the extra value you might get from shoving the river is worth the risk of busting? Can someone run a calculation that demonstrates it?

Well, we are getting even odds on our river shove when called because we already win the pot if we call. So the marginal gain of shoving is 50%. In other words when we shove we are putting in an extra 1,700 chips to win an extra 1,700 chips when called.

I would assume that better hands are never folding. Mathematically we are +EV when we win > 50% of the time vs called hands.

So how often do we get called by hands that are worse?

We have to construct ranges of calling hands.

Is it likely that UTG+1 limped with either 97o or 74o? Probably not. But he might have with 97s and less likely 74s. 97s is always calling flop and turn. 74 and 74 are likely calling flop and turn. 66 would call flop but much less likely to call turn. Any set would be likely to put action in on flop and/or turn and not bet so little on river. So I give villain about 7 or 8 combos of hands that beat us.

Now how about hands that call us that we beat. I don't think KJ would passively play the turn. Does K8s/K6s/K5s limp in UTG+1? Maybe this early in a tourney. Does villain's small river bet represent a blocking bet? I think it does. So the vast majority of one pair holdings will let go facing a river raise. But a river jam is slightly different because any pair becomes a bluff catcher. Does our 3 street betting look like it could be a bluff? Possibly. Does villain have 8 or more combos of hands that call our river shove? Possibly.

I play live mostly and don't play a ton of tourneys anymore so getting busted for thin value does have me just calling here a bit. But if I can buy back in and we are relatively early in the tourney I will shove river more often than just call.

Nice analysis, thanks!
I just posted a hand 'betting KK for value on coordinated board' where the same concept -getting busted for thin value- applies.

With no info on villain I'm going to read into the limp.

Villain's range at this point is obviously behind your set. When you shove over his small lead here you are going to get called a good % of the time by hands you are beating. So I think you are still going to be ahead of his calling range.

People just call off with really weird hands in these spots, and just calling is giving up too much value imo.

Obviously this would be different if the river spot was against a known decent player.

That's my thinking too. People call you or level themselves into calling with all kinds of weird stuff. I don't think that weak leading bet is to induce a raise. With the majority of our range we would be shrug calling that bet. But we have closer to the top of our range here.

bigger otf, bigger ott and then jam river.
as played raise to whatever you like