https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmR4gx_RMoU

This video appeared on my cell phone. The bluff appears bad but got through.

I thought it was sort of interesting because if DN had a draw, he would probably cbet the flop. If he had a set or something, he would not check behind the flop, flat call the turn and then raise when the draws came in. Plus when he raised preflop, he likely had high cards which miss that board.

However, it was a great scare card, and DN probably read the opponent as value betting top pair, and maybe had a read on how the opponent played. Or maybe it was just a bad bluff and he got lucky.

He just couldnt believe that Dnegs would bluff him in a spot that bad. He is also near the bottom of his value betting range, so maybe its just a GTO fold regardless.

He needs to have some spade combos in his check back range; no way is someone who is trying to play GTO going to bet all his flush draws on the flop; both players know this.

Which leads me to this question, which spade/spade combos does he check back? Maybe the Ax of spades that has showdown. Maybe some 9x of spades, though that hand is probably too good to go in his checking range.

Can he value raise a hand like JT? I think so; there are two pair and lower straights that will pay him off. His 6 of spades does block straights and flushes, so I'd guess this is a bluff at some frequency; probably a low one...

5 players left in a super high roller, knowing Negreanu loves to keep pots small and has a lot of nutted hands on river here this would be an easy fold with top pair, in other words a good bluff.

Negreanu check behind on flop is standard imo and probably done with a very wide range on this board if he raises wide pre.

Real question is whats up with the size of the turn bet? 2/3 pot on turn that completely bricks Daniels range followed by 1/4 pot value bet on river that completes every draw. Makes absolutely no sense, i feel like you have to call turn with ace, 2 over cards, any draw and essentially bluff almost any river.

Unless some level 7 thinking is going on where you chose the most bullshit bet sizings to induce bluffs, but lets be honest this is tournament poker with icm etc so theres 0% chance of that. I dont think that bet sizing combo on turn/river happens with any hand stronger than top pair. I suck at tournaments still, but if you find yourself on a street with top pair and you have played it in a way you would never play the top of your range then that is a gigantic leak. With icm pressure etc you are just gonna get put in an impossible situation by anyone who realises you are likely capped.

For those of you who listen to Podcasts, the Poker Guys will be breaking this hand down in a future episode