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Nasty Spot deep in 0 1M PKO Nasty Spot deep in 0 1M PKO
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10-18-2020 , 11:02 PM
#1
ForeValue
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centurion
Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 129
Looking for some clarity on this spot that just happened, was 10/100 ITM in the $630 1Mil PKO ($78K up top + bounties).

+1 open (47bb, $1.5k b), LJ flat (66bb, $2.2k b), HJ 3B shoves 78BB ($1.1k b)

I have 83BB covering all in BB w/ QQ

Feels fine to run it of course, but could this ever be a fold? TBH thought it even was a potential misclick in game, and found it highly unlikely he would be shoving KK+ and punting value. Any insight would be appreciated!

*Villain in HJ was a LAG losing HS reg, busting him was effectively for chip lead.
**Spoiler, I call off he has AKs and binks the K on river
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10-19-2020 , 01:32 AM
#2
3for3poker
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old hand
Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,502
Not folding. As you say, who in their right mind plays KK+ this way.

GG.
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10-19-2020 , 10:46 AM
#3
PEEhole_Solver
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enthusiast
Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 53
itz only nasty bc u lost this is the easiest call in the world
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10-19-2020 , 11:36 AM
#4
ForeValue
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centurion
Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 129
Quote:
Originally Posted by PEEhole_Solver
itz only nasty bc u lost this is the easiest call in the world
I understand and am never folding obv...what would be fold here? Snapping with JJ I'm sure but what about TT or AK?
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10-19-2020 , 12:38 PM
#5
Bubblebust
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Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 830
I'll be a contrarian and make a case for folding. I'm not sure we can state with certainty that this is never AA/KK, and the range probably does have a lot of AK (indeed, this might be V's entire range for such a nutty raise -- as it blocks AA/KK). In terms of $EV, it might be a marginal call even if it's clearly very positive in terms of cEV. H is already 10th in the torunament, and I just don't think he needs to take such a high-variance risk given he has only invested his minimal open. Can H be exploited by making this fold? Yes, but if V keeps going to the well, then we can have more confidence to snap him off.
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10-19-2020 , 01:07 PM
#6
ForeValue
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centurion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubblebust
I'll be a contrarian and make a case for folding. I'm not sure we can state with certainty that this is never AA/KK, and the range probably does have a lot of AK (indeed, this might be V's entire range for such a nutty raise -- as it blocks AA/KK). In terms of $EV, it might be a marginal call even if it's clearly very positive in terms of cEV. H is already 10th in the torunament, and I just don't think he needs to take such a high-variance risk given he has only invested his minimal open. Can H be exploited by making this fold? Yes, but if V keeps going to the well, then we can have more confidence to snap him off.
The moment he shoved I thought I would have to fold for exactly the same reasons, but all things considered I thought it was very likely TT-JJ as well as AK. Thanks for the input. (FYI, it was a cold call for me as I was in the BB)
Last edited by ForeValue; 10-19-2020 at 01:32 PM.
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10-19-2020 , 04:23 PM
#7
lolposting2016
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It’s only nasty cuz you lost gg run better
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10-19-2020 , 04:51 PM
#8
mttpdx
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubblebust
I'll be a contrarian and make a case for folding. I'm not sure we can state with certainty that this is never AA/KK, and the range probably does have a lot of AK (indeed, this might be V's entire range for such a nutty raise -- as it blocks AA/KK). In terms of $EV, it might be a marginal call even if it's clearly very positive in terms of cEV. H is already 10th in the torunament, and I just don't think he needs to take such a high-variance risk given he has only invested his minimal open. Can H be exploited by making this fold? Yes, but if V keeps going to the well, then we can have more confidence to snap him off.
Queens are extremely dangerous in this situation. HJ is at 78 to villains 83 meaning he’s almost for sure in top 20. The worst villain does this with is AK in which case hero is at 55%. Assuming hero has confidence to reach the final table, a call here is literally putting tens of thousands at stake. It’s completely unnecessary. You really want to put that money up for a coin flip? Because I sure as hell wouldn’t.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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10-19-2020 , 11:58 PM
#9
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auralex14
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I agree with OP that we should include 1010 + JJ in the range, severely discount AA + KK, cause, why?, which makes this a pretty clear call for me.

Also, mttx, we’re still 100 players left in the tournament, and hours away from the FT, so I think you’re overestimating the equity involved with the flip. On the contrary, getting a huge stack with 100 left would help immensely towards a deep run as people try to ladder up w ICM. Which I think adds value to the call.
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10-19-2020 , 11:58 PM
#10
57912
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Im not very good yet, but im trying to get involved in discussion because I feel that im not absorbing anything anymore from videos/reading only. I'm folding this one. Wasting AA or KK that way seems pretty dumb but jamming 80 bigs with nothing deep in a tournament seems way crazier. I'd be irritated and fold. Not sure if im right or not. Sorry about that river man it happens you were close!! Next time.
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10-20-2020 , 12:17 AM
#11
3for3poker
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old hand
Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,502
Quote:
Originally Posted by auralex14
I agree with OP that we should include 1010 + JJ in the range, severely discount AA + KK, cause, why?, which makes this a pretty clear call for me.

Also, mttx, we’re still 100 players left in the tournament, and hours away from the FT, so I think you’re overestimating the equity involved with the flip. On the contrary, getting a huge stack with 100 left would help immensely towards a deep run as people try to ladder up w ICM. Which I think adds value to the call.
Even more importantly, this is a PKO. Having a big stack enables you to collect bounties.
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10-20-2020 , 03:12 PM
#12
ForeValue
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centurion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by auralex14
I agree with OP that we should include 1010 + JJ in the range, severely discount AA + KK, cause, why?, which makes this a pretty clear call for me.

Also, mttx, we’re still 100 players left in the tournament, and hours away from the FT, so I think you’re overestimating the equity involved with the flip. On the contrary, getting a huge stack with 100 left would help immensely towards a deep run as people try to ladder up w ICM. Which I think adds value to the call.
+1 and I also think that card removal is an improtant factor as the utg+1 and LJ both have a large amount of Ax and Kxs in their ranges, thus making it less likely for Villian to have KK+, AK (slightly greater chance I have him dominated vs the flip w/ AK). Thanks for the feedback!
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10-20-2020 , 03:13 PM
#13
ForeValue
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centurion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 57912
Im not very good yet, but im trying to get involved in discussion because I feel that im not absorbing anything anymore from videos/reading only. I'm folding this one. Wasting AA or KK that way seems pretty dumb but jamming 80 bigs with nothing deep in a tournament seems way crazier. I'd be irritated and fold. Not sure if im right or not. Sorry about that river man it happens you were close!! Next time.
Thanks and glgl on the felt!
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10-20-2020 , 06:55 PM
#14
deuceblocker
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I can't understand why HJ has losing stats?????

Calling, but QQ is the bottom of my calling range.
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10-20-2020 , 08:17 PM
#15
ForeValue
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centurion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deuceblocker
I can't understand why HJ has losing stats?????

Calling, but QQ is the bottom of my calling range.
No kidding lol, he must not like to hit the streets...thanks for the input!
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10-26-2020 , 08:57 AM
#16
NotImpressed
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yeah seems like even AKs shouldnt be a call all of the time , although GTO wise it might be , like QQ+ only and AKs + but probably GTO wise QQ might be equal as fold (EV wise i mean) because of the 2 players behind as that still can have KK+ and make an easy call and reck both HJ and BB
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10-27-2020 , 12:25 AM
#17
lolposting2016
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Gto doesn’t really have much to do with what’s a pretty simple pf spot here^
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