37 players left, 36 paid in $50 $10k on ACR. I'm in 18th with 17.5 BBs. V is UTG with 19 BBs and I have not seen him open to this point.

V open jams. I have AKo in sb. Call or fold?

EDIT: I mistyped in title. I do have AKo not A2.

I am an expert in busting out in the bubble so take notes. I have a very hard time folding a hand like this. Not sure what the correct play is. If you are up against 99 for example, you are flipping. I think the best strategy in these spots are to go and take a leak, which will make you $100 in this case. I wish I had done that all the time.

Overall, I think this should be a very nitty fold, which I hate and that is why I have hard time making them.

Is this ever AQ? I doubt it. The general strategy here is not to take a 'pot odds' call, which is what this is at BEST. You need to be about 46% to be goon on a chip ev basis, but far more on a $ basis. I'd call this if there were about 42 or more left, or obviously after the bubble burst.

So, I did make the nitty fold. But it was probably correct, as you guys point out. Came in 8th on a real cooler; found myself against the chip leader holding KK ... he had AA.

Is JJ+ a call? Or QQ+? There's no question KK+ has to be a call.

Agreed but is it ever AA or KK @ 18BBs UTG? I think it is closer than you list with both removal and blockers.

Disclaimer - have not played online since BF so my experience is all live and almost no one open shoves 18 bigs UTG on the bubble.

Beachman,

But even if you exclude AA and KK (which you probably should) his range is likely still all pairs. So given that losing this hand means $0, and we are not near short stack relative to the field, so we will very, very likely cash, I don't think the potential for doubling up is +$EV. That's why I folded, and why I agree with the other posters.

I would certainly make this call if it was for 50% or less of my chips.

I'm probably calling here. I hate that UTG hasn't opened before but its good in a way because it looks like UTG just wants to take it down. I would rule out AA and KK. Most likely it is JJ or QQ, but I think it can be AQ/AJ as well not wanting to play OOP.

So given that at worst we are about 45% and at best 70% I like it.

does cashing matter enough to fold AK in this spot? For me, even if I knew I was flipping, and it's a pot odds call, aren't we playing for a top 3 finish always?

Even if we are, is my assumption bad? I would never fold here. Sigh call and hop to hit against 99-QQ? AQ maybe if we are super optimistic (AA or KK? Nah) - he would standard open I think?

If Villain only ever has pairs here, you are not getting the right price even for Cev. You need to call 16.5 to win 36.5, or about 45.2%. Against 99-QQ for example, you are 43.3%. If he has AK as well, you are almost there at 45.2%. If he has AQs even, that is enough for chip ev, also assuming he never has AA/KK.

One of the last live tournaments I played was a daily $150. We were on the money bubble with 9 left. UTG raised all for about 20BB. Knowing my customer, I had nothing more than a sigh call with KK.

The exact bubble leads to some strange play...

One other point, hero does not mention how many others at the table cover the Villain. If the stacks are mostly 10-15BB, he might be wider, since he is in far less danger of busting. If they are mostly 20BB plus, he will really be fairly nutted here a LOT.

For those posters who think this is never AQ /AJs - what is a player like this (ie someone who is shoving 19bb UTG on the stone bubble) doing with those hands under the gun? Do we assume he open folds / limps / min raise-folds?

Depends on how big is shortstacks?
You can calculate it pretty easy
Lets say if u fold u probably get free money 2x buy in.
Bad thing is you usually get some aq+TT+ range
I am not even sure is nit shoving AQ 20BB from UTG...in the bubble
So you have only flip. For me it is easy fold

Those who won't have AQ- here are usually min raising, then snap folding to a jam that will knock them out. Jamming a hand like AQo that is never ahead when called for 19BB is not likely to be a profitable play from UTG on the actual bubble.

On the pure bubble im sure there a few <5bb stacks

This is assuming all $50 ACR MTT players are au fait with ICM and that population all play the same way.

Not assuming that at all. I think MOST players are scared of bubbling. Which leads to tight play, and shoving some hands that are better played as opens.