We just 3 hands away from the end of the day 1 of MCOP single re-entry €1500
Hero plays on a fairly soft table with only 1 aggressive and 1 loose player. Everyone else is just ABC. Hero had been the table chip leader up until recently when the new players with deeper stack appeared.
Hero has very comfortable 90BB stack which is twice as much as the average stack. Hero committed to play last 3 hands as safe as possible and start day 2 with very playable stack.
We play with BB ante.
Action:
Aggressive Player with ~60BB opens 2.4BB from EP
Loose player ~30BB calls from HJ
New player with deep stack >100BB calls from CO
25BB short stack calls from BTN
SB folds
Hero on BB calls with black KT

Flop : KT6 - all red

Hero checks, Aggro checks, Loose checks, CO bets 1/2 pot, BTN all-in!

Hero folds.

What do you guys think? I have found multiple reasons to fold in this spot, but really want to check what other people think.

"All red" means all of one suit?

Nope, 2 tones.

Well we certainly aren't folding, tons of draws possible and button could be doing this for value with worse.

I think I like flatting better than shoving, if we shove then I think CO plays close to perfect against us. I think I call with the plan of calling CO if he reshoves.

Playing with an eye toward making day 2 seems like a sizable leak, who cares as long as it's not a money bubble. Often I've thought I should play MORE aggressive on the last couple hands of the day since if I bust I save myself the commute to the casino the next day and can play something else.

my reasoning to fold:
if we call, then we are committed to the pot. In the worst case scenario we are in 3-way all-in versus 2 draws or 1 draw and set that collectively win > 50% of the time.

Can't be a real scenario. Unreg pre

Not the correct way to think about this. Actually this seems like an awesome scenario, either I come back to day 2 with a pile of chips or I get knocked out and can do something else with my life the next day.

You understand that when you say that something is not correct, you should explain why, right? Come back/doing something else does not count. Do you have any math bud?

You suggestions in this forum have 0 utility..please leave.

You are incorrect because there zero value to making day 2 as a goal in and of itself. You should not optimize for that. You also should not optimize for winning the pot a large % of the time. The goal of poker is to make money. You should optimize for that. This is such a fundamental concept that I can't believe I need to explain it. In your case, the guy who said "unreg pre" gave you the best advice for how to maximize your EV in this event, simply and eloquently, so I think we're done here.

If you are looking to fold top two on a draw heavy board against new, short-stacked, loose and aggressive opponents on day 1 of a 1500 tournament, you really do need to unregister before the tournamant starts, study up, play some micro tournaments, and hit the lab.

We aren't attacking you personally.

This is real advise.

That you say "I have found multiple reasons to fold in this spot" makes everyone really cringe.

You should be shoving all-in after the short-stacked button moves all-in for 25BB. This will almost always isolate him against you, while you have him crushed a large percentage of the time.

That's obviously not true.

OP - to try to word it constructively, can you provide a hand range here that supports your decision to light $$$ on fire?

Why do you consider CO pot committed after a small stab at an uncontested pot OTF? Also, if you call the AI and then for whatever reason decide later to fold you have only lost 25BBs and still have an above average stack.

Never mind, you actually list multiple reasons to not register for a MTT at this buy-in.

okay, so the worst case scenario is we are in 3-way AI versus 2 ranges that consist of sets, FD's and OESD's

Our equity is < 40%.
Pot odds though if we go 3-way all-in is actually exceed 40%.
Thus, this is -EV action.
Where am I mistaken?

You are very mistaken to think that a 3 way all in is the only possible outcome! You need to take the above scenario and assign a probability to it and then calculate your equity if CO folds to your raise where you are likely a big favorite over the 25BB shove.

From several elements of your post and replies, you appear to be playing scared. Scared poker is not optimal over the long run.

okay, nevermind. I shouldn't have posted this in the first place as the vast majority of people just say how crazy it is. sayonara!

Neither of these guys can have KK. The shorty probably can't even have TT. Anyway with no ICM getting it in 3 ways with 39% equity seems a-ok to me.

I'm shoving this on the flop.

CO has 5 combos of hands that are ahead of us (KK/TT/66) and quite a few combos that are behind including draws. I'd rather get AK/KQ/AA or a draw to fold and pick up 20% to 30% equity than make a CO call more likely on the flop.

I'm never folding to the BTN shove. Way too often this is a simple draw (like QJ) or a draw with an overcard (like AX suited) or a combo draw (flush draw and a pair, gutter and a flush draw, etc.)

I'm in the don't come back to day 2 with minimal stack camp.

Actually I concluded that it was an amazing fold. You guys ignore the fact that it is 5-way pot. In addition my opponents tend to deviate from conventional paths - aggro player is on EP and Loose player is on MP.
There is no any software that can model this spot, hense, you can't prove that my shoving is +EV. Your answer is based on the biased 'fight or flight' response and you reject other opportunities. I have no reason to trust it in such a complex game. I don't trust my own Fight or Flight when I play. Shoving could be +EV, but it also could be -EV and no one can prove any of those outcomes in the 5 way pot.
Fold's EV is 0. It also gives me the confidence boost in that I can stick to my plan when face the great uncertainty.
So my game is good. And you guys...unreg yourself.

Ohhhh, it's a 5 way pot. Why didn't you say so?

sarcasm? I mean the hand description has all the required information.

wtf did i just read

You forgot to factor in the chance of the other guy being as big a dip**** as yourself and also making a terrible fold or call.

Well, at least this is proof that Pokerz isn't dead yet.

When I grow up, I want to be as big a troll as OP.

You'd have to arrest me and send me to prison in order to get me to fold top two here OTF WTF???