I want to feel bad for myself, so was wondering if anyone can figure out the math on this. After a run of bad luck in tournaments, I entered a $400 one. I was dealt AA UTG. 55, 44, 33 and 77 called (in that order) from mid position to BB. On the flop 55, 33 and 77 made sets and on the river 44 made a set.

What are the odds of that?

Thanks. This has been therapeutic.

How did 44 reach river in this hand?

As for your question, I have no clue how rare this is but it’s pretty ****ing rare alright.

Crazy hand!

The sad truth, though, is that with four small pairs chasing sets, you've got only 45% equity in the hand. Modeling it up on twodimes.net, the guy with 7s has 20% equity if he's got different suits than you, and the other three hands in descending order are at about 14%, 11.5%, and 10%.

Note that the smallest pairs need to do more than just end up with a set -- they need to dodge everyone else's draws.

Sorry that it didn't work out. The odds of four people hitting sets are pretty small. But you'll take yourself off-course if you get too hung up on the exact odds of every card ending up as it did. The key point is that AA vs. four callers is often less than a 50-50 proposition

move up where they respect ur raises obv...or flop > sets...can anyone tell me the odds of getting paid when u flop set over set?

...gotta be a non-zero number

Isn't it bad enough to realize that a chance that three players hit set OTF is 0.17%?

The IDIOT had 7 big blinds and called 2.5 of them with his 44 pre-flop instead of shoving. I would have still lost to him, but he should have shoved pre-flop, which would have allowed me to re-shove and likely get the other 3 out of the hand.

[ ] that thread fits the M-HSMTT
[x] that thread should transit to bbv
[x] Op should have folded pre