Quote:
Originally Posted by floattheboat
Yes. What edge % do you estimate you have over these fields specifically?
How much edge is it really possible to have over a live field? What edge do professionals assume they have over certain fields?
Interesting topic of discussion in its own right IMO.
Great area to explore, probably worth a separate post. I'll play agitator, with the following thought about careful math vs. sloppy math:
Most solid players are able (semi-accurately) to gauge their chances of cashing, relative to the rest of the field. Typically 20% to 60% of a tournament's field has no hope of cashing unless they get a ridiculously favorable run of cards. That can't be ruled out, and a few of the phish will go deeper than anyone expected. But overall, savvy players can decide that their chance of cashing is 1.5x the random entrant. Make adjustments for whatever the house takes out of the prize pool, and it's easy to assume that Solid Player has a 30% edge.
Not so! There's a second calculation that has to be done, too. If you make into the 10% to 20% of players who are going to get paid . . . how likely are you to be in the top three, which is where payoffs are concentrated? Lots of Solid Players don't make room in their minds for the notion that they aren't the very best player in the tournament, and that this will curtail their ability to win the biggest prizes.
Say Solid Player has only a 0.7x shot at the top prizes, within the elite community of players who get paid, because a few entrants have even better games than Hero does, and will put their greater skills to work.
Then Solid Player's overall edge has to be scaled down a bit. It's not as simple as 0.7 x 1.5 (before rake), because even min-cash is worth something. But I'm thinking Solid Player's edge may be more like 5% to 10%.
Just a thought.