Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin
Flop way too small. You're targeting a range that includes at least K9s-KQs, Q8s-QJs, AQs, AQo, JTs, Ac2c-Ac7s, Ac9c-AcJc, Tc9c, 7c6c, 6c5c, all of which are paying off a bigger bet.
Your range doesn't wanna go too big because it's gonna be tough to balance a huge cbet sizing. You have lots of, for example, naked A-high and since V is continuing with lots of hands your bluffs you can't go too big with those.
So the sweet spot OTF is ~50% pot.
FWIW V's x/r sizing is pretty ****ty and small since the top of his range can extract more (so he's valuecutting himself with KQ-type hands here) and his bluffs are all high-equity hands that want max FE which is also conducive to big sizing (so he's valueowning himself with Jc9c-type hands here)
But AP flatting the x/r is good as an equilibrium strategy because, our sets and KQ not withstanding, we just don't have enough hands on this texture that are really truly comfortable GII yet against what should still be a pretty strong x/r range, to the extent that , at equilibrium, we can't split off our sets into a 3b range lest we leave our flatting range too weak.
But we're already in a node of the game tree we probably never should be in so it can easily be argued that we should be 3betting flop exploitatively, our latting range be damned. Like at equilibrium V should be folding KJ and probably even AK is super thin to continue with if you 3b--thus if V never folds Kx, then flop is a slamdunk 3b with 88.
AP it's pretty much impossible to say with any degree of clarity. If V includes all straights and KQ it's a super profitable call, if only straights it's obviously a very bad call (like -27bb in EV). He only need to include ~50% of his KQ combos to make this decently +EV so it's prob a begrudging call.
But it all starts from the suboptimal flop sizing. We're never supposed to be in this spot.
Completely agree with you. Flop way too small for the reason you give as clubs, 9s, Ts, Js and As are scare cards, which represents half the deck.
Though I didn't think V has QK here as his c/r flop should have been bigger with all the draws OTF and I don't see him c/r all in turn with 2 pairs here as all sets and straights are in my range and I think he knows I can't call with less than 2 pairs here.
When he made the small c/r flop, I said to myself, it looks like a weak draw that wants me want to fold my air hands or maybe a K that wants to know where he is at.
When T came, I thought, I don't wanna play for stacks here but I should still have value in this hand so I decided to bet small so that even if I get c/r, it won't be for stacks, but I was wrong . And again I now think my bet was way too small (a little bit less a 1/3rd pot). I guess it should have been either 50%+ bet or a check to valuetown river.
In the end, I thought his range OTT was made of big draws (ATcc, JTcc, A9cc) and straights. I ended up tanking for 5 min, having time called up on me and showed my hand while folding.
