Hi community,

Here's a spot I played in my last live MTT that I struggled a lot playing.

Context and protagonist:

- Live 300€ full ring, 50k starting stack on 50/100, we are playing "level 7" 500/1000/100, around 2.5hours we're playing at this table. Last hand before break (not sure if it's relevant to mention )

CO: Hero has NYBR BU for 40 BBs an orbit ago. Hero was covered and NYBR
from SB on BB's squeeze on a LAG BU's open.

BU: Vilain is decent competent and he's the guy who were NYBR on in the
spot described above.

BB: seems OK reg, but not the online sharp type.

Stacks:
- CO (Hero) around 55k
- BU around 35-40k
- BB just below 100k

Hand:
Hero opens 2500 from the CO with QT. BU calls. SB folds. BB calls.

Flop: Q8T
BB checks. Hero c-bets 4500. BU calls. BB folds.

Turn: 6
Hero bets 12000 or 12500. BU calls.

River: 9

Hero ???

I'd like comment on each street.
Also, on what range would you put vilain after he calls OTF and OTT.

I'm looking forward to read your analysis.

Thanks in advance.

Complicate situation that is the typical spot when you say, it have it ? or dont.

what hands can he call otf ?

he can call with any fd or sd.

Idk depends on the bet, but im mostly checking and depends on the bet i call or fold.

I like pre-flop and flop bets.

On the turn if I am betting I am shoving. The 12,000 bet is over 30% of BTN's remaining stack (which is our effective stack size). That is more or less the rule of thumb I use as to whether we are pot committing so I shove when over 30%.

I think BTN is making a mistake to call the 12,000 with a draw (unless it is something like KJ) and should probably shove with J9/97/88. But I think our mistake in not shoving the turn, is bigger.

If BTN started with 40,000 we could also bet 8,000 on the turn (<30% of BTN's remaining stack), but out of position I would prefer to just rip it in.

As played I am almost definitely check/folding because I can't ever imagine being ahead and I don't think a bluff shove works much. If villain has Q8 or T8 he will more likely than not check vs turning his strong hand into a bluff.

I know you've tried to be helpful but it doesn't really worked ;-)

At least, tell me on what betsize would you fold or call?

I both like and dislike your idea of jamming OTT. I think you're right about your "30% theory". I guess it's really depends on Vilain. If he is competent, he would shove his flushdraws and KJ, except KJ as you said.
In the other hand, we want to take more value by making him the mistake to call OTT.

The main problem is the 6. Now, 97 is a straight. I don't think he would shove that OTT. I don't have that many combos of flushdraws against he needs protection.

OTR, to summarize, we beat T8 and Q8 that he would normally be checking back. I think 88 is less likely because he should shove it OTT.
It sucks because now OTR, I don't see any other hands he can have that make sense. If we check "it's an auto give up" and pray that he have smaller two pairs.

In conclusion, I wonder if it's valid to shove and represent a flush or a straight with any KJ or AJ? Or do we have to say FML, this 9 was really the worst card of the deck.

I really have no clue how to make EV+ decision OTR. I guess he has no hand that he can shove as a bluff if we check to him.

I’d like it if I had AJ and you sized that small

First of all, what does NYBR mean? I've never heard that term.

I would bet bigger on flop and jam turn. As played, agree with Mr Rick that this is a clear x/fold. Villain's range includes a lot of Jx and a lot of made flushes. Some Qx, Tx and 8x, but most of those hands also have a J and got there on the river. If you're lucky, he'll check back a T9 or KQ and let you win at showdown, but he's never calling with worse or folding better so a bet is out of the question, and I don't expect him to turn his KQ/T9 into a bluff, so you can't x/call.

Yeah, I think flop is too small here, and if we bet bigger on flop it becomes much easier to jam turn. As played I don't really mind the bet size on the turn that much, I think it's big enough to reasonably deny equity to draws.

I think check/call river is somewhat close. What is our bet range vs. check/call range vs. check/fold range here when we double barrel flop and turn?

By the time we get to the river, our range is pretty strong. We probably have TP hands (KQ, AQ), 2 pair (QT, Q9, T9, T8), sets (QQ, TT, 88), made straights (KJ, AJ, JT, J9, 97, 87), made flushes and AK.

I'm probably betting all my flushes and Jx hands for value. Bluffing with anything that has the Ah or Kh, which includes AK, KQ, AQ.

Check/calling the few 7x hands in our range and probably check/folding everything else (2 pair, sets, TP without a heart)