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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 03-23-2019, 10:51 AM   #1
DonLigretto
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Live 200 Dollar MTT on the bubble, A3s

Hi

Blinds were at 4000/8000 with 800 Ante. I had 61000 chips, average was around 140k. 158 players, 17 get paid, 18 left. I was MP3 and had a tight image. I showed almost all push hands and they were usually like AQ, TT etc. I was the small stack and the players behind me to act were all around 120-200k.
All folded to me and I pushed. Small blind snap called. What range do you push here? And what range do you assume to the big stacks call with?

I usually drop out in spots where I wonder if I am too impatient. The whole tournament for 8 hours I was small stacked and super patient, picked my spots and even recovered nicely from a 4BB stack to over 100k at one point. But as soon as it is very close to the money or the big pay jumps at the final table, I seem to become impatient. I could have just folded and waited for another spot...

Anyway I am looking forward to your opinion.
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Old 03-23-2019, 12:38 PM   #2
Jkpoker10
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Re: Live 200 Dollar MTT on the bubble, A3s

Due to bubble implications, I would probably fold in this spot. I think I would jam Aq+ 77+ here. Def not saying this is ideal but i would fold and squeak into money. Then once bubble burst, I would shove based on Nash equilibrium obv. Think you can tighten up shove ranges due to bubble to gtn the cash. If you are playing to win... just shove proper Nash.
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Old 03-23-2019, 10:12 PM   #3
metalrenas
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Re: Live 200 Dollar MTT on the bubble, A3s

Maybe A3s is OK to shove according to push/fold tables taking on account Nash equilibrium and Optimal play and those things....

Online may be a correct strategy, but I think in a live tournament poker is not correct to push as often those Ax hands and even more incorrect in a 200 dlls event. In a live tournament with a cheap entry fee people pay medium and big pairs and big aces to pushes of a <10BB stack, and pretty much nothing else; hands like KQ, KJ,QJs and small pairs are the calling hands that make "optimally correct" to push with Ax.

Then you are a 28-30% favorite to the range of a caller and not 40% as in optimal play. I think is better to wait for a better spot (I understand though that you were the short stack and the BB was going dangerously to you..)

By the way, I know is irrelevant, but what hand had the caller? Just curious...
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Old 03-23-2019, 11:28 PM   #4
Jkpoker10
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Re: Live 200 Dollar MTT on the bubble, A3s

Quote:
Originally Posted by metalrenas View Post
Maybe A3s is OK to shove according to push/fold tables taking on account Nash equilibrium and Optimal play and those things....

Online may be a correct strategy, but I think in a live tournament poker is not correct to push as often those Ax hands and even more incorrect in a 200 dlls event. In a live tournament with a cheap entry fee people pay medium and big pairs and big aces to pushes of a <10BB stack, and pretty much nothing else; hands like KQ, KJ,QJs and small pairs are the calling hands that make "optimally correct" to push with Ax.

Then you are a 28-30% favorite to the range of a caller and not 40% as in optimal play. I think is better to wait for a better spot (I understand though that you were the short stack and the BB was going dangerously to you..)

By the way, I know is irrelevant, but what hand had the caller? Just curious...
The fact live players may not call wide enough is a sign players can probably shove wider than Nash profitably. I feel Nash should be out of the question though on the bubble if cashing means something to player.

If playing to strictly win, def shove Nash and missing out on min cash won’t bother you. If mom cashing will bother you, I would shove tighter though.
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Old 03-28-2019, 11:41 AM   #5
JayGeeCZ
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Re: Live 200 Dollar MTT on the bubble, A3s

I think the mincash shall not be the goal, if you have a healthy bankroll. You have now some kind foldequity (not too much, but some), after blinds you would have no fold equity. Also after bubble the players are calling wider. You asked about the shove range from MP3 with 7-8BB, I know there is a Nash / Optimal shove range which you could find, but my proposal: any pair, AXs, A9o, K9s, KJo, Q9s, QJo, J9s, T9s. I don think, that the calling for 30-50% of their stack, on bubble, would indicate wide range, oposite, I'd expect somethink around 10% range. Than you have around 40% euqity, which is what you are looking for.
I would not think about win the tourney with 7BB, but mincash would not be my goal at all.
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Old 03-29-2019, 12:23 AM   #6
Checkov
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Re: Live 200 Dollar MTT on the bubble, A3s

[QUOTE=JayGeeCZ;54962403.} Than you have around 40% euqity, which is what you are looking for.
l.[/QUOTE]

A beginner's question - how do you determine the equity you need?
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Old 03-29-2019, 09:01 AM   #7
jkak
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Re: Live 200 Dollar MTT on the bubble, A3s

the real question is how did you end up with the amount of chips you had?
you really want 160000+ not 61000 on the bubble and trying to get it in with A3s from mp3.

Quote:
I usually drop out in spots where I wonder if I am too impatient
your either being too patient or losing pots that's putting yourself in these situations. which one is it? you better off going out in 50th or sum **** or having a bigger stack giving you a better shot of winning the tourny.

Quote:
4BB stack to over 100k at one point
how did you lose 40000? not playing a hand for tree fiddy 3.5 orbits if the blinds are 4000/8000? play more hands if thats the case.

Quote:
I could have just folded and waited for another spot
A3s is a **** spot to get it in with this stack size and position. I would focus on not being at this stack size in the first place. it would be better if you had 150000 and min raised or 2.5x raise with A3s instead. focus on getting into those spots. playing more hands and the right hands against the right opponents at the right time (stack sizes position, image etc etc). a example of this is getting players to play badly against you. like raising utg when your 50bb deep with 35o and showing it either by making a bad call on purpose postflop for a small amount of chips or checking it down or whatever. then when you get your bigger hands players will play more hands against you and you can maximize this. and who knows you might just get lucky with your **** hands too and hit the flop hard hitting two pair, trips of straight with 35o for example.

Last edited by jkak; 03-29-2019 at 09:31 AM.
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Old 03-29-2019, 03:34 PM   #8
jpgiro
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Re: Live 200 Dollar MTT on the bubble, A3s

This is a pretty close spot. If there were players at the other tables shorter than you I'd lean towards folding. I'd also consider folding if there were players that appeared to be particularly gambly on the bubble, in which case we can tighten our overall shoving range.

If those two situations don't exist, this is probably towards the bottom of our shoving range - I think optimally we're supposed to be shoving like 25-27% of hands here so A3s is well within that range. But when you add in the bubble dynamic this becomes a lot dicier.
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