Live tournament, BI €550

Middle stage
Eff. stack is about 50BB
7 players on the table, BB ante

Preflop
Pot 2.5BB
V. seems like a TAG raises 2.5Bb from UTG(or whatever it's called on 7-max)
Hero on BB calls with 9d4d

Flop 9hQs2d
Pot 7.5BB
Hero check-calls 3BB c-bet

Turn Kc
Pot 13.5BB
Hero checks, V. checks

River 2c
Pot 13.5Bb

Hero bets 3.5BB, reasons:
- to get value from Ax
- to have a cheap showdown if V is ahead
- to prevent difficult check-calls if V bets
- to have an easy fold decision if V raises

Does it make sense?

If the turn would have been any card below a 9 and then we'd get to this river, I think blocking the river is absolutely fine for 26%.

When the turn is the Kc - a very good card for IP - and the villain does not choose to cbet, I'd heavily weigh him towards having TT/JJ/Qx, some 9x.
Also you'll see the occasional trap with KK+ more so in live poker than online I assume.

Otherwise IP should barrel this turn with a very high frequency I think, with his strong hands as well as a decent % of bluffs like low suited Ax, broadways with a gutter and small pairs without showdown value I guess. Also a good amount of Qx should be betting for value in theory I think.

So your reasonsing to block the river to get value from Ax does not make sense since IP should have been betting almost every Ax ott already.

We also might get a cheap showdown if the river goes check-check, when IP has a hand like 88/77 for instance. I like checking with this hand more than blocking the river. Also if we would face a say 60% river bet I think we can safely fold unless you have some very strong reads or you've seen IP bluffing before when he chose to bet/check/bet IP.

By betting with the intention of folding to a raise we basically bet to find out where we're at, which is not really a thing (and again, we would not get value from Ax hands).

cliff47, that is a great analysis, thanks a ton. I am not sure if a TAG player would bet on the turn with Ax, though I agree that the turn card is excellent for his range and it would be pretty standard second barrell. Also, 77/88 would often check on the flop, I suppose.

You can fold 94s pre from an EP 2.5 raise. I think your value targets are small PP less than Ax. I still think blocking river is ok if Villain really plays river as face up as you think.

I'd fold pre and check the river. There's really no value to be had betting here - you're just attempting to get to a cheap showdown. Frankly I'd rather check and possibly check/raise if he bets as you can have JT here and he can't.

Thanks everyone for your input.
I am puzzled a bit by suggestion to fold 94s pre. I would agree with that if it was 9 or 10 players on the table or stack size would be 30-40BB..
But it's 7 players on the table and eff. stack size is 50-ish BB. If we fold 94s vs EP open then what's the worst suited 9x we defend?

Defending 96s for sure. 95s is marginal. I’d defend 94s against a bad player.

I’d prefer checking in this spot. Like the other poster said, I don’t see him having or calling with Ace highs, and if you make this bet he might turn a hand he’s given up on (55-88) into a bluff that gets you to lay down the winner. Whereas if you check, I don’t think he’d bluff those type of hands.

I don’t think he had a pair like that, it seems most likely that you’re beat. So if you check and he bets, I think you can safely fold.

I’m also calling with 94s here fwiw

My charts says defend all suited hands v a UTG+2 min raise.

You would defend tighter vs 2.5x obv. 94s is still probably a defend.

Getting called by Ax or a pocket pair on the river is ambitious. What air can you possibly have when you c/c this flop other than J8s?. c/f seems fine here.

Id rather bet closer to 20bb and turn it into a pure bluff, but we probably shouldnt. Considering we have the nut advantage here and villain is capped we definitely have an overbet range here. J8s, some Axs that peeled flop with bdfd, and 33-88 are the bottom of our range here. Thats probably more than enough bluffs.