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Let's Take a Quiz! #1 (SRP, BB vs BTN, 30bb eff) Let's Take a Quiz! #1 (SRP, BB vs BTN, 30bb eff)

01-18-2022 , 11:37 PM
I'm back.

Here’s the first of a few quiz spots where there’s likely be a wide variation in player responses and no necessarily correct answer.

Would be ideal if any responses could be hidden behind spoiler tags.

"Grunching" (posting a reply without having read any of the existing replies) is highly encouraged.

Purpose here is to gauge population tendencies in spots where decision ranges are likely to vary widely (or wildly) from one player to the next, and one opponent to the next.

General idea is to read quiz, post, then check back to see how others have responded.

Hope there’s some useful population info for everyone in this approach. Not looking for a PIO solve (pls don’t) but more an idea of how you’d react to these spots in game.



__________________________________________________ _____________


Here are the starting ranges:

BTN (Open 2bb):




BB (Defend):





________________________________________

1.

BTN Open2x-BB call

Flop 9s6s2s x-Cbet 1bb-call

Turn 9s6s2s5s x-Bet 1.5bb-call

River 9s6s2s5s4c x-Bet 26bb (All-in)-???



a. How often do we envision typical BB players having w/ defending their 2pr, straights, and weak flushes here? Do you think some players will NEVER call here with less than a flush of a certain rank? Would YOU catch with any of those, and with what frequency?

b. Without consulting any material, describe some general qualities you think that the BB's lightest snaps should possess? In other words, which part of his range should he prioritize for catching and why? Hint: Obviously, he needs to catch a lot of non-nutted flushes, all of which are only beating bluffs--which ones make the best catchers and why?






2.

BTN Open2x-BB call

Flop: JdTs6s x-Bet 5.5bb-call

Turn JdTs6s9c x-Bet 9bb-call

River JdTs6s9c8s x-Bet 13.5bb (All-in)-???


How often do you think we'll see people protection/value-ship a jack OTF via a xr? My thought is that too many people will just xc these vs the large cbet.

How often do you think we'll see people dump a jack OTT? My gut feeling is, they don't do it very often.

To make things potentially exploitatively worse for this hypothetical BB player--how often do people station down river w/ 2pr or even just AJ, KJ (assuming they even have these depending on how they are treated OTF or OTT)? I am envisioning that virtually all players will fold these too often if IP goes all-in, possibly always fold them, and in a live MTT probably flip over their cards and show as they fold. It's 4-to-a-straight and a flush got there--I feel like I've personally seen many times in similar spots a live player very quickly do that auto-muck show-and-fold w/ 2pr here. Clearly underestimating the SPR impacts on defense frequency and also overestimating the ratio of 7x+ to air w/ which IP can arrive at river.

Considering a strategy of never giving up any air OTR and just exploitatively always going for it when we have air, on the basis of the conclusion drawn from the above three paragraphs. We could see an average player having way too many xf in his range vs the triple if he doesn't xr flop enough, nor xf turn enough, nor xc river enough.


a. How often will you x-ship a jack OTF for value/protection? Would you vary frequency based on whether or not your Jx contains a spade, and if so how?

b. How often will you dump a jack OTT? Which ones in particular?

c. How often will you station down river ships with 2pr or Jx? Any particular Jx or 2pr combos you think make for particularly bad or for particularly compelling catchers?

Last edited by oldsilver; 01-20-2022 at 02:36 AM.
Let's Take a Quiz! #1 (SRP, BB vs BTN, 30bb eff) Quote
01-18-2022 , 11:59 PM
seems interesting. leaving message to find it easy when home.
Let's Take a Quiz! #1 (SRP, BB vs BTN, 30bb eff) Quote
01-19-2022 , 10:07 PM
Basing this on typical $400 - $1k BI live mtts

Spoiler:
1A I expect BB may call even non flush and low flush hands they were ‘trapping’ ott then can’t lay down - not scientific but I've seen BB call a turned 2pr+ more often than a rivered set in this situation. That approach might even get to the approx correct 2pr+ call frequency idk (followed by wildly animated scenes and cries of I knew you were bluffing...)

1B hands that unblock A6 67 68 etc would seem to be best bluff catchers, as these are the hands BTN might take a milking line with, then be left with little sdv to check back on the river. You could put some suited 2x in that category too I guess.

2A yep, at 30bb depth with a board that can get way more complicated ott/otr I’d c/r J8+ (not c/shove) but I'd play J5- etc a little more carefully. Spade blockers? Could cc slightly more often as we can justify calling a spade runout

2B / 2C becomes super V and live-read dependent, not sure I can find a fits-all response here.


Last edited by oldsilver; 01-19-2022 at 10:12 PM.
Let's Take a Quiz! #1 (SRP, BB vs BTN, 30bb eff) Quote
01-25-2022 , 12:58 PM
I have my answers in the spoiler but I don't get why you are interested. In all the years I have played live I have virtually never seen a betting pattern like the first hand. Even when I have seen small blocker bets on flop and turn I have never seen a shove on the river unless they got there on the river - but they would have gotten there on the turn... Similarly with the second hand. The turn bet is 40% effective stack and makes no sense.

Having said that maybe online people are doing it. Solvers being what they are.

Though I am dying to read OldSilvers post before I embarrass myself, I am grunching...


Spoiler:
All my answers are based on live play...

1a Q1) I don't envision many players calling without any flush. But having said that good players will base their call not on their hand but on how much BTN has been bluffing. If they are overbluffing then calls might be made with as little as two pair because it is possible that some players would turn an overpair into a bluff. But I would be inclined to call with 9x in that case anyway because almost all overpairs or better would just check back the river and overbluffers will also triple barrel with air.

1a Q2) Yes. Some players will always give up to large bets with 4 flushes on board. And the turn bet is really a check where BTN is making it look like he is weak which means he could be strong.

1a Q3) If BTN is an overbluffer then I would potentially call with any 2pr or better. I might call with 9x if BTN never ever checks. Also this will depend on my stack size to some extent.

1b) I would snap Qs and probably with Js unless BTN rarely bluffs and maybe 10s (probably give it some thought). 8s or lower has the problem of not competing with suited hands starting with Ts that BTN is playing all of since the 2s is on the board. Also there aren't a lot of combos left for 8s high and lower flushes.

2 Q1) I agree that Jx is one pair likely to call most often vs such a large cbet.

2 Q2) I think you will see a lot of Jx dumping on the turn. The bet is 40% effective stack. Most Jx will either fold or shove. I personally would fold more than shove unless again we are talking about an overly aggro BTN who bluffs a lot. For me the problem with just calling on the turn is that while shoving eliminates most of the bluffs from BTN, the river will make it hard to know whether we are good or not and probably many of BTN's hands that are behind us can improve to better than us and would have no reason to bluff the river if they missed (because if we call the turn with value we are likely always calling the river - unless a card comes like the 8s).

2 Q3) Not sure why anyone would just call turn bet with a J unless they also had a K, Q, 8, 7, and/or flush draw. But assuming somebody did call down with two pair I do think we would see a lot of folds. Again it would depend on how aggro/bluffy BTN is.

2a) I would c/r shove with a J somewhat often I think because we are ahead of BTN's range but are vulnerable to an overcard and gutters. I would shove more often if I had a spade because I think BTN will call any shove with a flush draw as he is getting the right price especially if he has and As, Ks, or Qs and we reduce that part of BTN's range when we have a spade.

2b) Of my remaining J's that I didn't c/r with (i.e., no spade) it would be the ones that don't have straight and/or flush draws.

2c) I don't have many Jx hands left that are 2 pairs. I would have shoved with any 2 pr hand on the turn. Maybe J8 which I might station with. I also don't think I have any 1 pr Jx hands left. Maybe KJ with no spade. And I would fold that. But I think I am shoving KJ a bit on the flop.

Last edited by Mr Rick; 01-25-2022 at 01:04 PM.
Let's Take a Quiz! #1 (SRP, BB vs BTN, 30bb eff) Quote
01-25-2022 , 02:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Rick
I have my answers in the spoiler but I don't get why you are interested.
Hey Mr. Rick, thanks for the reply (it was excellent and encapsulates exactly the spirit of this exercise).

I'm interested because almost all players--live, online, and hybrid--are extremely exploitable and this highlighted comment demonstrates yet another example of that. I PROMISE you that if you were playing against me (or many other players I know, all of whom I will compulsorily say are better than me) you'd encounter lines like the following and would be between a rock and a hard place as you rack your brain trying to find a profitable strategic counter (ultimately, you mathematically can't. Not for lack of skill; rather, you simply can't).


Are you confident you'd be responding appropriately? Do you think the game is stagnant and that if you've never seen something yet, then you'll never see it?

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 01-25-2022 at 02:53 PM.
Let's Take a Quiz! #1 (SRP, BB vs BTN, 30bb eff) Quote
01-25-2022 , 06:04 PM
Also, its about more than just the spots in the quiz.

Someone whos good at abstract thinking can easily translate data related to one spot and use it in other seemingly unrelated spots that are actually (making up a term here) "isomorphic" ie sharing qualities that make them mathematically similar

So, although the applicabilitt may seem narrow at first, truly its quite broad.
Let's Take a Quiz! #1 (SRP, BB vs BTN, 30bb eff) Quote
01-25-2022 , 06:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin
Hey Mr. Rick, thanks for the reply (it was excellent and encapsulates exactly the spirit of this exercise).

I'm interested because almost all players--live, online, and hybrid--are extremely exploitable and this highlighted comment demonstrates yet another example of that. I PROMISE you that if you were playing against me (or many other players I know, all of whom I will compulsorily say are better than me) you'd encounter lines like the following and would be between a rock and a hard place as you rack your brain trying to find a profitable strategic counter (ultimately, you mathematically can't. Not for lack of skill; rather, you simply can't).
I get it and a while ago realized it doesn't matter what I do if you are balanced. By betting the right % of the time you will be a net winner (unless there are tells). This is why I have been leaning towards c/r shoves post flop and turn leads when the flop checks through. Similalry I will c/r or raise in position on the turn vs smallish bets.

Quote:
Are you confident you'd be responding appropriately? Do you think the game is stagnant and that if you've never seen something yet, then you'll never see it?
I'm confident against a player like you it doesn't matter how I respond when I don't have the nuts. I am trying to get myself in as many situations that negate your game plan. So when you are betting for value if i can have a better hand it will throw your %'s off. Similarly I am trying to fold when my bluff catchers won't actually win vs a bluff. Maybe that was one of the points of your exercise...
Let's Take a Quiz! #1 (SRP, BB vs BTN, 30bb eff) Quote

      
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