guys would love your thought on this hand, it was live so I am trying to remember it correctly :

late stages of live $150 tourney , bubble just bursted

blinds 5k/10k/10k

UTG+2 (amateur player 45 years old) open to 20k (stack around 350k)
fold around to hero on BB with JT of clubs
with 200k stack

hero calls

flop J73 with 3 hearts

hero checks

UTG shove all in

hero?

I have no problem with either a call or fold here.

It seems to me that villain is likely to have a heart but not two. With two I would expect a normal cbet and then probably a shove on the turn.

The problem is that villain can have a better J or QQ+/77 and is making you pay for a draw which you don't have...

Given that the bubble just burst I would probably call here (because it will be a while to make any decent money and we have only 17 blinds) and expect to be against a flush draw with one or two overs. Best case IMO would be 55-66/88-99 and a flush draw. Worst case we are up against a better J with a flush draw...

thanks that's a good breakdown

I agree with Rick. It is close between call and fold. I would lean towards a fold because he jammed 18k into a 6.5k pot and you have no draw unless I had a good read on his player type. He could very well have 99, 1010 with no h.

Everything is possible with a random player ofc, but I think the range is more likely Ahx QQ+ QJ+ and 88-TT with a heart. We're not great against that range.

I thnk the math dictates a fold here but a live read may justify a call. Preface this with an acknowledgement that I usually get at least one table talk warning per tournament.

First to act. I would have looked at my cards post flop, maybe even announce a "heart check" if I knew Villian and don't bet 50-75% of pot into him. I would watch whether he looked back before he presumably jams and decide if I think he has a pair with a heart, a better jack, etc. Sometimes, if they just sit there for a minute, I would ask a villain if he was going to do a heart check or tell them I will do one after they do.

I am probably looking for a reason to fold rather than call because of the overbet and no heart but if player got nervous while I was tanking, I may call on a read.

This feels very realistic range to me, and as old silver points out, we're not doing great against it.

Think it's a tight fold.

thanks everyone for yours views

yes he was definitely making nervous sings like scratching his ears and face while waiting for my decision