First I thought this was an easy fold, then an easy call, then I was told not, so here is it's own thread to try and reduce my confusion

PokerStars - 700/1400 Ante 175 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 63.87 BB (VPIP: 25.25, PFR: 16.33, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 99)
MP: 11.49 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
MP+1: 112.98 BB (VPIP: 26.36, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 110)
CO: 109.31 BB (VPIP: 26.43, PFR: 17.21, 3Bet Preflop: 9.32, Hands: 370)
Hero (BTN): 73.88 BB
SB: 14.07 BB (VPIP: 20.24, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 4.88, Hands: 84)
BB: 22.61 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
UTG: 75.09 BB (VPIP: 22.72, PFR: 15.84, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 473)

8 players post ante of 0 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, fold, fold, MP+1 raises to 2.15 BB, fold, Hero raises to 6.5 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 4.35 BB

Flop: (15.5 BB, 2 players) 2 9 9
MP+1 checks, Hero bets 5.11 BB, MP+1 raises to 14 BB, Hero calls 8.88 BB

Turn: (43.5 BB, 2 players) 6
MP+1 bets 53.5 BB

Villain is quite loose pre-fop, but tighter post-flop.
* Probably worth mentioning that unfortunately this was my first 3-bet in 47 hands, due to having had either medium strength cards or trash previously.
* 9-9-2 flop means he's unlikely to have improved, so a check-raise looks like either an overpair (only pocket aces would be beating me) or a flush draw.
Given the low flop, maybe I should have shoved myself before the turn?
* Turn card completes flushes, though I find it hard to imagine how villain has many, given the pre-flop action? All-in bet looks like pure value, though giving villain a tight range we're still ahead.
Thoughts please? Anything I've missed?

(I think it was probably one of the above hands)

In the car right now but maybe someone else can calculate your equity vs 22,99+,97s-K9s and some Ac hands.

I hope you weren't driving

OK, Flopzilla says 40% equity...

Awkward spot but I think I'm just folding. Hard to imagine villain having a whole lot of worse hands here. Especially after that club rolls off on the turn. Guess he could take the naked ace of clubs on flop and turn it into a bluff and then overbet turn. I guess he could have Jacks or Queens with a club and be working to get value? But what is he getting value from.. you 3 bet him and it's unlikely you did so with 22-TT (obviously excluding 99). Then again he could just have aces and be working to get value from all big pocket pairs. Don't think you're beating enough here to call, and I'd feel okay with folding.

Key question for me here is: do we want to get a 73 BB stack in on a flop of 299? I think yes. I would only lay it down multiway with crazy action.
If a blank arrives on turn I assume we're not folding KK so why not shove on the flop to deny good odds for a FD (or less likely Ax).
Any thoughts?

It’s a tough spot because an open/call range mp+1 closing the action still has a decent share of 9s in it. It may not have many Ac hands but there’s a few of those, too. If he were UTG I think it’s an easier call and you just hope not to run into AA or AKcc.

I feel like he's only really repping a 9 because it would be unusual for him to raise a paired board with a flush draw and then go ahead and overbet when he hits it, he's either read for you an overpair and just trying to get you to lay down or over protecting a 9. If he's been aggressive pre flop and less aggressive post flop it's more likely that he's called with some sort of hand that connected with the flop, not a made hand that he would probably just GII preflop. It would also make some sense for him to raise the flop with trips because you will call a lot of raises after the 3 bet and bet on the flop, what you're repping is essentially would should be calling a raise. All in all I think it's a fold but I'd be watching the guy very closely after the hand.

Lot of players saying weird things in this thread IMO.

First of all, when he x/raises flop, he's repping 9x or possibly 22. He definitely has 9x in his range, and if he's loose pre, 22 is also possible. He could also be getting aggressive with a draw, but playing an overpair like this would be pretty bad and definitely an overplay of his hand. Not saying people will never do it, but it's unlikely. So Villain's range is pretty polarized, which is why I think a call is standard and 3betting the flop would be pretty bad.

After we call flop, our range consists of overpairs, a few flush draws ourselves, mostly nutty ones, and maybe a few 9x hands although not many since we 3bet pre.

So on the turn, when Villain jams, he's repping a flush or a boat. Taking this line with an overpair or even 9x would be pretty aggressive when we have made flushes in our range. 9x could still get value from our overpairs, but that'd be very thin, and I expect most players to check 9x here.

But anyways, it'd be really bad to take this line with an overpair, which means all we beat is a pure bluff, which Villain probably doesn't have many of. We need to call with some hands, but we have much better candidates like our made flushes and overpairs with a club so I think it's a pretty standard fold.

Also OP, I don't know why you think Villain have many flushes here given preflop action. It would be pretty standard to play open and call a 3bet with 78s, JTs, QJs, KQs, ATs, AJs, AQs, and if he's loose he could be a lot wider than that.

Thanks for all your thoughts.
Makes sense to me - I didn't feel like it was a flush, though of course stranger things have happened...

It's not a big effective stack size, so I didn't think it's a good idea to be calling 3-bets with 78s etc OOP. Villain was lucky if that was the case and hit the flush here, but would it be a good EV call to be trying to make that flush? Bearing in mind I folded on the turn so there weren't any implied pot odds.
And if calling all those hands OOP, then what should we be folding pre-flop if we are villain..?

I guess the take home message is that this spot is rather opponent dependent (and I've called similar before then ran into aces).

do you have any reason to believe V will turn something like A2s into a bluff? i'd want a solid read V was capable of getting OOL in such a spot before punting off 70+BB

he could certainly have something like T9, 89, cc and take this line.

Pretty sure your opponent has the range advantage here, and when you go from looking at it range vs range to your hand vs his range it gets even worse for you bevause you have no blockers (IDK if having Kc here would be more valuable as a blocker or as a FD, moot point anyway) except I guess to {K9s}.

Eff stacks seem pretty big to me as far as MTTs go not sure why you think otherwise. Villain can do pretty much whatever he wants at this depth including play his entire battery of 9x and clubs as an open/call from MP+1 so also not sure why you discount flushes so much. He's getting better than 2.5:1 to call pre. Maybe go bigger pre for starters, like pot?

Villain has lots of 9x and flushes that play this way especially non nut flushes that think they need protection against the {AcAx} combos youd arrive with on this turn. You can even have {AcKx and AcQx} hed want to shove his flushes vs for "protection". Could even have nut flushes that want stacks in now you rep an overpair he doesnt want an ace or 4th cluv to peel to kill his action.

I would fold.

OK, I don't mind that I folded this hand. But can I ask about general strategy again...
Because I thought agreed wisdom was that it is not a standard play to call more than 5% of effective stack size when holding a hand like 87s, so I don't understand people saying that it's actually a standard move when OOP. Not pretending to be super knowledgeable or anything though, so somebody please explain to me how the thinking on this has changed?
I don't think it's a big effective stack size here when taking into account antes - i.e. the 'm' or whatever you want to call it is only 30. (If it was a relatively large stack size then a speculative call would have been less than 5% of effective stack, rather than 6.5%, so I wouldn't have minded it)

And, is it also standard to go bigger than 3x for a 3-bet?
Though pot size here would have been less than 3.2x anyway, so not much difference...

you don't need to defend hands without a club ott.
it really is that simple barring reads.

please uninstall flopzilla mate

/thread