Appreciate analysis on all streets here. This was key hand in $600 Deepstack Challenge at Venetian. 110 runners, ~ 30 remaining. Blinds are 600/1200 + 100.

Hero has 35,000 chips. Has tight table image but villain is new to the table.
Villain has ~ 40,000 chips. Youngish with beard, hoodie and sunglasses and eastern European accent. New to table, so no reads.

Player in BB is young Asian male with hat and sunglasses (only puts them on when he's in a hand) who has been super aggressive, making lots of shoves over min. raises and stealing (we think) pots with aggression.

Hero has AQ in Hijack

Villain is UTG+1 (8 handed table) and limps for 1200
Folds to Hero who raises to 4100
Folds to BB (aggro Asian male), who calls 4100
Villain also calls 4100.

Pot = 13,500

Flop is 5Q7

Villain checks
Hero bets 11,000

Bet size here is larger than normal in order to dissuade super-aggro player on the BB from trying to make a steal raise and to protect my top/top against flush draw (even though I have queen blocker). Too much? Would half-pot lead of 7000 be better/different?

BB folds
Villain calls 11,000

Pot now = 35,500

Turn is K

Villain checks
Hero checks

River is 2 (blank)

Villain moves all-in. Call is for all of Hero's remaining 20,000 chips.

Hero tanks (right at break) and after 3-4 minutes villain calls clock.

call or fold?

I'd size the preflop raise a bit larger to isolate the EP limper, especially given the description of the Villain in the BB. Would make it around 5k, depending on what position you're in.

Think the main problem with your line is the flop sizing. Unless your typical c-bet is 80% of pot (which would be a leak), you are defining your hand to a thinking villain. In this case equity denial is not as important as you may think because you hold the Q blocker and the ace overcard. Typically you can use smaller c-bet sizings in multiway pots since it is a bit harder for villains to continue with other players behind them. Betting as large as you did on the flop lowers your SPR and makes it harder to fold on a bad runout. With preflop action and effective stacks, betting around 6000 on the flop sets up a roughly pot-sized shove on blank turns.

I think the way I would normally play this is to be something like 7K on the flop and shove almost any turn. That is the worst card in the deck for you, but I don't think you can fold.

I think your reasoning for betting large being worried about a steal is the wrong kind of thinking. You hope that he makes a small bluff raise/steal raise and then you can shove over him.

I think this situation is player dependent. When you check the turn, your hand is exactly what it looks like (AK/AQ/AA), etc. A better player will realize this and might decide to bluff given that the pot is large. A weaker player is much more likely to have a flush.

C/s flop

On the flop I think its a great spot to bet smaller, give the illusion of FE to the aggro player, and shove if he raises. Even if he just x/c we can still shove almost every turn.

The turn obviously sucks for us, I dont hate a x back, but I also dont hate a shove given we're pretty pot committed here. On the river I don't see how we fold but I cant think of a hand we beat - it would have to be a very ambitious float turned bluff, but the price we're getting is so insane we probably just have to pay it off here.

That said, so snap call.

Ignore this read it wrong.

I agree that reasoning on post-flop sizing was ass backwards. Should have invited the aggro player on BB to shove so I could snap it off with top/top. I was trying to protect.

Problem on the river here is that I can't figure out what hand villain can have that I beat. Is this move ever going to be a weaker queen or a total bluff? What else is there?

What can you have tho that's better than 1 pair?

kq+

As played I could have flopped a set and I could be playing it oddly (hoping for a push from aggro player on the BB) or for max. protection (stupid, but possible), or I could have QK and still checked back the king of hearts on the Turn for pot control just in case villain hit the flush and, as it turns out, because I have the Q and if another heart hits the river (especially the Ace) I might counterfeit his flush. So, it's not 100% certain here that i have just one pair, although I'm pretty face up, it's true.

The more vexing question for me was what could villain have? I doubt he called the jumbo post-flop bet with air or with just middle pair and then shoved after the flush draw came in on the Turn as a stone cold bluff. If it was a bluff, it was a damned good one and took huge balls. But, assuming not a complete bluff, what can villain have here that I beat with my pair of Queens?

If I can't figure any logical hand he could play this way that I beat, don't I have to fold, regardless of how many chips I already put in?

Did someone say "top-top?" i knew i shoulda copyrighted that one...

Put 63s,68s in his range and call this.

Also I might bluff w/ stuff like 88hx because we can’t have that many other bluffs on this runout and we have some flushes, KQ and (very) few slowplays. It’s debatable that random villains are doing this though.

Actually I might just x/jam flop as villain with my whole continuing range vs that sizing though. It’s rather interesting spot tbh. I perceive op cbetting this sizing with very tight range. I’m interested to hear what range people would continue here with as the villain.

Thanks for analysis, guys. I tanked until he called clock and in the end I could not figure a reasonable hand he could have that he would shove there that I could beat so I folded. Nitty? Perhaps.

Postscript is that I got lucky with 10BB, tripled up, and went on to finish 3rd place for a nice cash, so folding and staying alive rather than calling and likely getting the bad news when he shows the flush (or the King) worked out, even if it was maybe too tight as played.

Bet smaller on flop. We want to induce BB to make a spazzy raise.

Close between jamming the turn and checking back to induce, but if we're going to check back I think calling the river is the right play.

Preflop is actually interesting. Think all of our options (fold/call/raise) have some merit here vs. EP open.

As played, size down flop significantly, checking turn is fine as we should be ok calling blank rivers when we have Ah or Qh here.

EP limped.

Ugh nevermind.