2 day event, money started at 100 left, $26500 up top
9 handed
V open 2bb 43bb UTG2 - essentially a random, played couple orbits, only standard spots/sizing/freq to date
Hero 34/43 22bb in BB K5dd defend

Flop K74r no diamond
Check, 2.5bb, call

Turn 3 (rainbow)
Check, 6.1bb

Hero 17.5bb ?

Fold, cc, shove, why?

Assume you are at 1/2 of average stack with 22 bbs?
Shove, if he has 56, gg. If he has k better kicker or aa or 2 pair +, blink the 6. Easy game.

Flop sizing needs a lot of critical thought. It's an interesting idea to take something like 88-99,A7 and use that sizing because it denies max equity vs overcard combos while still getting value from the plethora of 7x and 4x, certainly it's a better idea to have those combos for this sizing than TT,JJ,QQ. But the point is he can certainly have worse made combos here.

On the flip side, there's a big difference between what he reps for min sizing (merged) and what he reps for chosen sizing (AA, Kx, 88-99, A7s, air [polar]).

Have a hunch people will bet sets for that sizings too even though it's nonsensical.

His turn sizing looks pretty perfect but if he's too polar (AA,Kx and air only) and too strong (not enough air, too many sets) then there's a lot less incentive to do anything but flat. Folding is out of the question unless he's the biggest nit ever and has no bluffs somehow.

But in theory you have a lot of combos that are now pair+SD so getting close to 3:1 on a snap facing turn xrai he can't just fold nearly all his 88-99 and certainly not A7 which has pretty great blockers against 2pr. And this is basically your highest EV king that isn't K7,K4,K3 so could be a ship.

Kidding aside, I don’t see how you put him on a king, aa or a set as played vs. 88, 99, 1010, jj, QQ or a big a, no k. So, heads up with top pair and a draw and presuming I am short stacked and already itm, I see no folding from me. If he is on all draw, I think your turn shove makes him fold.

Thanks Eggs & jjj

yes, I posted this because it's rare that all three options fold, call, shove seem so close ott. seemed a good spot to get a second opinion. not sure whether PIO would fold this at any freq, but I assessed turn decision as follows:

1. fold - it's a large sizing. normally we can put x number of draws in V range to balance, but I dont' see how V equity improves with any part of range on that turn (we even block A5s) to justify. can never be sure what a random is going to do with 88-QQ but feel we have to discount. looks like AA Kx air, and air part of range feels significant - 98s T9s JTs QTs QJs A8s A9s AT AJ AQ. but my nagging doubt is that if V chooses this sizing and is competent, he'll know this leaves a <0.5 SPR and little fold equity otr. this should in theory discount the air part of his range.

2. call (my actual play) - strat from the outset was to cc streets and let him barrel air / worse. keeps all air in V range. 6% chance of unwanted A should he hold Ax. calling here commits Hero, but I've made my bed can rep stubborn 4x etc and want him to continue barrelling.

3. shove - unlikely he folds any 7x+ 88+ 56s etc so an argument to rip it. but it folds out V air which we want to keep in. but the clear advantage is avoiding lost value to a check back river with V 88-QQ 7x etc.

so...all options still seem super close

He should still have decent amount of worse hands (eventually 88-QQ that barrels 2 times and chb river) A7 , and some A5s,A6s,A2s,JQs for blocking KQ/KJ/KT etc . So everything but calling here on the turn seems way off , depending on river you might need to fold since you will have better hands to call with and people doesnt seem to 3 barrel bluff rainbow boards that easy