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Old 03-04-2019, 06:22 PM   #1
wain
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JJ - Sunday Million

Your thoughts are welcome for all streets.
No relevant info on villain, limited amount of hands.

UTG: 10,000 (200 bb)
UTG+1: 10,005 (200 bb)
MP (Hero): 9,165 (183 bb)
MP+1: 10,015 (200 bb)
LP: 9,895 (198 bb)
CO: 9,795 (196 bb)
BU: 10,015 (200 bb)
SB: 10,735 (215 bb)
BB: 10,400 (208 bb)

Pre-Flop: (120) Hero is MP with J♠ J♦
UTG raises to 150, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets to 500, 6 players fold, UTG 4-bets to 1,300, Hero calls 800

Flop: (2,720) 7♠ 4♥ 9♦ (2 players)
UTG bets 989, Hero calls 989

Turn: (4,698) 9♣ (2 players)
UTG bets 1,473, Hero calls 1,473

River: (7,644) 7♣ (2 players)
UTG bets 6,233 (all-in), MP (Hero) folds

Total pot: 7,644
UTG wins 7,644
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Old 03-04-2019, 06:24 PM   #2
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

nh
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Old 03-04-2019, 07:51 PM   #3
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

Your line makes a lot of sens but maybe fold turn is the exploitative best play because I really doubt people are bluffing that particular turn often enough.
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Old 03-04-2019, 08:45 PM   #4
Jkpoker10
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

I like Villians bet sizing on flop and turn. Perfect set up for a psb on river. Hmm I lean flat pre but see no problem 3 betting to not invite a big multi-way pot i guess. As played, I like fold river a lot.
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Old 03-04-2019, 09:57 PM   #5
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

I think mixing up 3-betting and flatting are good. I'd prefer to flat in early stages.

Post flop looks good. I was gonna say fold turn but the sizing is really small. But also your hand is really face up at this point. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Old 03-05-2019, 12:27 PM   #6
wain
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

Is folding to his 4 bet preflop a better option?
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Old 03-05-2019, 12:29 PM   #7
daviid
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

Quote:
Originally Posted by wain View Post
Is folding to his 4 bet preflop a better option?


no

if you wanted to 3b/f pre id rather flat JJ and 3b bluff with hands that are way worse/have better removal effects etc
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Old 03-05-2019, 02:33 PM   #8
EggsMcBluffin
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

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Originally Posted by wain View Post
Is folding to his 4 bet preflop a better option?
What do you think his 4bet range is?
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Old 03-05-2019, 04:54 PM   #9
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

Flat or 3-bet vs. UTG open is fine. I think flatting makes more sense as we're not trying to play enormous pots vs. UTG range this early in a tournament 200BB feep.

I think if we're going to call the 4-bet pre we do so with our entire range here so we can have QQ+ to call down on runouts like this. If we do have QQ+ in our range I think we can safely fold TT-JJ on the river, not sure we can fold turn with any overpair to that sizing unless our 4-bet call range is really narrow.
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Old 03-05-2019, 07:04 PM   #10
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

If we're not looking to play huge pots with JJ at this stage (which is reasonable) then I think 3b/f is the most +EV preflop line

I mean if V only 4bets say JJ+, AK (which honestly seems reasonable this early 200bb deep unknown vs unknown) why would we ever take JJ to the streets? And then we unlock tons of value vs the 55-TT, AQ, AJ, etc. portion of his range plus deny equity vs other parts of his range, moreso than if we just flat.
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Old 03-05-2019, 11:32 PM   #11
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin View Post
If we're not looking to play huge pots with JJ at this stage (which is reasonable) then I think 3b/f is the most +EV preflop line

I mean if V only 4bets say JJ+, AK (which honestly seems reasonable this early 200bb deep unknown vs unknown) why would we ever take JJ to the streets? And then we unlock tons of value vs the 55-TT, AQ, AJ, etc. portion of his range plus deny equity vs other parts of his range, moreso than if we just flat.
Because math. We need 29.4% equity to call 800/(1300+1300+120). If we're going to 3-bet/fold then we should just flat.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
359,583,840 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
JJ36.58% 125,907,06011,290,992
JJ+,AK63.42% 222,385,78811,290,992

Last edited by persianpunisher; 03-05-2019 at 11:33 PM. Reason: typo
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Old 03-05-2019, 11:49 PM   #12
EggsMcBluffin
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

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Originally Posted by persianpunisher View Post
Because math. We need 29.4% equity to call 800/(1300+1300+120). If we're going to 3-bet/fold then we should just flat.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
359,583,840 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
JJ36.58% 125,907,06011,290,992
JJ+,AK63.42% 222,385,78811,290,992

Hot/cold equity is meaningless preflop when we have three streets to navigate, especially against a range that will ALWAYS perceive itself as having the range advantage against. You think V isn't firing two-three barrels here vs our range extremely often?

"Because math" is an absurd, hand-wavey response that entirely ignores postflop play, and entirely ignores the immediate AND postflop benefit we gain from 3betting, realizing immediate value from worse, denying equity, buying the range advantage postflop, etc.

We're not getting to showdown or even the river often enough to realize 29.4/36.6=80% of our equity when we 3b/c. Not gonna happen in a million years if his range is JJ+, AK. When we do get to SD, we're almost always gonna lose unless V goes bananas and triples all AK combos on all textures.

Flatting the open is absurd too unless you think he's opening so ridiculously tight that his opening range has no wiggle room whatsoever to fold to a 3bet (which would be a fine outcome anyway) or call a 3bet with worse (an even better outcome and one that absolutely happens unless V is the world's biggest nit--in which case he's overfolding and we're printing by 3betting crazy wide, let alone with a top 2% hand like JJ).

You're leaving tons of EV on the table by flatting pre here. One, by letting worse pairs and unpaired hands off the hook for the min price pre AND two, giving those worse pairs the ability to set the price to see a flop and outdraw us HARD (and the textures on which his pairs in particular improve will tend to be ones where JJ wants to put more chips in--boards containing at least one undercard that don't really scare JJ for at least a cbet). Yes, we get 4bet sometimes (probably at most ~20% 4bet freq if he opens 15% and 4bets JJ+, AK), in the process we make no mistakes and force V into all kinds of spots where he will **** up defending too wide pre and subsequently post, we gain all sorts of immediate and long-term benefits from our 3bet. Flatting does nothing but let V off the hook (and as others mentioned invite the blinds to tag along and steal our equity in the pot for a cheap price)

If you've ever seen a preflop GTO tree, I can all but guarantee this hand is a 100% pure 3bet vs the open. So if you're flatting you better have a damn good reason to be exploiting that hard.

If V is wider than JJ+, AK we can consider 3b/c--I'm not sure how wide his 4bet range would have to be before 3b/c becomes viable--but no matter what, unless V is a 90 year old man nursing a cup of coffee with **** in his Depends opening like 2% from UTG we have to 3bet

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 03-06-2019 at 12:18 AM.
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Old 03-06-2019, 08:32 AM   #13
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

it amuses me to think that V may now have A9o in his 4!f hall of fame

i think it's always a 3!/iso at his depth for some reasons @eggs has pretty much nailed

however we can flat the 4! IP and make his life horrid on Jxx at the right price so i'm certainly peeling the 4! and seeing three.

as for V's particular line otf I love it. i think you fold exactly this hand, even QQ, at a high enough frequency to make it super profitable for AK to bet this way. the smaller sizing ott just sets up a river PSB on the ultimate safe card.

btw i'm not exactly sure what a random 3!/call range looks like 100+BB deep for your average Sunday Million punter these days. would be curious to know.
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Old 03-06-2019, 12:25 PM   #14
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin View Post
Hot/cold equity is meaningless preflop when we have three streets to navigate, especially against a range that will ALWAYS perceive itself as having the range advantage against. You think V isn't firing two-three barrels here vs our range extremely often?

"Because math" is an absurd, hand-wavey response that entirely ignores postflop play, and entirely ignores the immediate AND postflop benefit we gain from 3betting, realizing immediate value from worse, denying equity, buying the range advantage postflop, etc.

We're not getting to showdown or even the river often enough to realize 29.4/36.6=80% of our equity when we 3b/c. Not gonna happen in a million years if his range is JJ+, AK. When we do get to SD, we're almost always gonna lose unless V goes bananas and triples all AK combos on all textures.

Flatting the open is absurd too unless you think he's opening so ridiculously tight that his opening range has no wiggle room whatsoever to fold to a 3bet (which would be a fine outcome anyway) or call a 3bet with worse (an even better outcome and one that absolutely happens unless V is the world's biggest nit--in which case he's overfolding and we're printing by 3betting crazy wide, let alone with a top 2% hand like JJ).

You're leaving tons of EV on the table by flatting pre here. One, by letting worse pairs and unpaired hands off the hook for the min price pre AND two, giving those worse pairs the ability to set the price to see a flop and outdraw us HARD (and the textures on which his pairs in particular improve will tend to be ones where JJ wants to put more chips in--boards containing at least one undercard that don't really scare JJ for at least a cbet). Yes, we get 4bet sometimes (probably at most ~20% 4bet freq if he opens 15% and 4bets JJ+, AK), in the process we make no mistakes and force V into all kinds of spots where he will **** up defending too wide pre and subsequently post, we gain all sorts of immediate and long-term benefits from our 3bet. Flatting does nothing but let V off the hook (and as others mentioned invite the blinds to tag along and steal our equity in the pot for a cheap price)

If you've ever seen a preflop GTO tree, I can all but guarantee this hand is a 100% pure 3bet vs the open. So if you're flatting you better have a damn good reason to be exploiting that hard.

If V is wider than JJ+, AK we can consider 3b/c--I'm not sure how wide his 4bet range would have to be before 3b/c becomes viable--but no matter what, unless V is a 90 year old man nursing a cup of coffee with **** in his Depends opening like 2% from UTG we have to 3bet
I have seen preflop GTO trees(Raise Your Edge) and 200bb deep vs UTG open with no antes is not close to a 100% 3-bet. You're not getting tons of EV 3-betting a UTG raiser this early in a tournament because ranges in general should be tighter because there are no antes and we're super deep.

Once 4-bet we're still playing IP post flop and the immediate equity is over 6% vs JJ+ AK. You can fold all you want, but it's bad.
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Old 03-06-2019, 01:53 PM   #15
EggsMcBluffin
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

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Originally Posted by persianpunisher View Post
I have seen preflop GTO trees(Raise Your Edge) and 200bb deep vs UTG open with no antes is not close to a 100% 3-bet. You're not getting tons of EV 3-betting a UTG raiser this early in a tournament because ranges in general should be tighter because there are no antes and we're super deep.

Once 4-bet we're still playing IP post flop and the immediate equity is over 6% vs JJ+ AK. You can fold all you want, but it's bad.
Even if V is opening a measly 4% we're beating half his range. What do you think V's opening range is here? And what is your 3betting range? Your flatting range?

Neither of your posts actually relate to the discussion about which preflop action is preferable, nor do they come close to explaining how flatting would be higher EV. It's akin to a math professor writing some theorem on the board and saying "trust me, it's true" before speeding off at noon to play ultimate frisbee on the quad. OK, why are we not gaining EV? What are the real, first principles reasons why flatting is preferable, i.e. higher EV? No other metric besides EV matters when making this decision.

How is flatting preferable with respect to building a pot with the top of our range (JJ being a top 2% hand--flatting is obviously not preferable bc less money goes in the pot immediately)? And if you're worried about "bloating" a pot in this spot, you're just being MUBSY. We are IP with a premium hand, right?

How is flatting preferable wrt equity denial vs the opener? Vs the blinds? (it's impossible for flatting to be preferable along this metric bc flatting is passive and therefore denies zero equity)

How is flatting preferable wrt how we're building our VPIPing ranges here at all, and thus how the range advantage is distributed postflop? (We rarely have the RA postflop when we flat btw, even if we include JJ in our range)

So, again, I ask how is flatting higher EV?

Specifically referring to GTO trees, I personally don't ever trust others' work unless I know everything about how those trees are created. These preflop trees (which when action isn't being closed are just clumsy approximations anyway bc to my knowledge no multiway solvers exist yet--hence why you shouldn't trust anyone's but your own) are highly sensitive to how many flops they're trained on and what postflop strategies have been specified and also runtime, and on top of all that the assumptions underlying the players still to act. You sure you were even looking at trees for a BTNvUTG configuration? I would be especially wary of freely available trees because this is highly valuable information that doesn't come cheap to those who seek it and no one is giving it away for free, no one is that nice, at least no one outside of this forum, certainly no one who's taking payment to teach you how to play poker. And if you're paying for this info, you're better off spending your money on PIO and renting your own dedicated server to run/approximate these trees yourself and just consuming yourself with that environment if you wanna go down the GTO route. But before I beat a dead horse any GTO preflop discussion in this particular spot is a sideshow anyway because, again, no multiway solvers exist.

But it's just common sense that if V is opening anywhere beyond a crazy tight range then we're ahead of that range, IP, and very needful of equity denial. And we monotonically benefit from buying the RA, too. Hence, we 3bet. How are we not gaining EV from 3betting (without responding with "we're just not")?

And our immediate equity (whatever that actually means in this context--you seem to be conflating it with hot/cold equity going to the river) is NOT 6% in excess of BE for a call, that assumes the hand is checked down and ignores all postflop play considerations. An absurd assumption. Our position matter little, anyway, if our range is being crushed by his. On the other hand, being IP in a 3bet pot (as the 3bettor vs a 4bet pot as the 4bet caller) is HUGELY advantageous.

As I pointed out we're not getting to the river OR showdown often enough to realize enough equity. You actually advocated folding the turn! Calling pre assuming you have some sick 6% equity edge and then folding turn on one of the safest runouts possible is a huge contradiction. In what universe are we realizing enough equity to make this work?

I think I can be convinced to call the 4bet IF you can guarantee we stack V 100% of the time we're ahead--but it would take a Herculean effort to convince me to flat the open, and I'd be really curious to hear your arguments against the reasons I've outlined as to why we should ALWAYS be 3betting here.

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 03-06-2019 at 02:14 PM.
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Old 03-06-2019, 08:43 PM   #16
JoeC2012
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

Quote:
Originally Posted by persianpunisher View Post
I have seen preflop GTO trees(Raise Your Edge) and 200bb deep vs UTG open with no antes is not close to a 100% 3-bet. You're not getting tons of EV 3-betting a UTG raiser this early in a tournament because ranges in general should be tighter because there are no antes and we're super deep.

Once 4-bet we're still playing IP post flop and the immediate equity is over 6% vs JJ+ AK. You can fold all you want, but it's bad.
Pretty clearly this.

River is such a weird spot, calling or folding are probably both fine.
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Old 03-07-2019, 10:15 AM   #17
JoeC2012
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

Also for the people saying we 3bet because we have an equity advantage, I'd love to know what your button vs. CO 3betting range is. Just gun it every time with hands like 33 and A8o?
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Old 03-07-2019, 01:16 PM   #18
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

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Originally Posted by JoeC2012 View Post
Also for the people saying we 3bet because we have an equity advantage, I'd love to know what your button vs. CO 3betting range is. Just gun it every time with hands like 33 and A8o?
The arguments made earlier for 3bet weren't as simple as a "Equity Advantage: YES/NO" binary--there's a multiple of factors governing the decision with JJ, and equity advantage (and the extent to which there is an advantage as well as the extent to which said advantage can be realized) was one of them.

Obviously your question here is semi-sarcastic, but--with 33 this deep we flat since most of the EV comes from the rare scenarios where we hit a set, so it makes sense to place ourselves in a position that gives us the most opportunities to do this. With A8o, I'm folding basically 100% pre antes, because despite having an "equity advantage" (which may not even be true vs. many villains' CO ranges), it's not as simple as looking at Hot/Cold equity, and A8o is going to have a very hard to realizing any equity advantage it did have when we're playing this deep.
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:42 AM   #19
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Re: JJ - Sunday Million

Seems ok, im more inclined to flat pre when we are closer to closing out the action, thinning the field here is good when we are ep. With the stacks so deep doubt I would ever fold to 4b with so much implied odds behind and being ip, we can potenially win a 387bb pot if we hit a jack and if his range is JJ+,AK then he has 18 combos of QQ+ and 16 combos of AK so we are ahead to around half his range at this point from a purely combinatorics point of view so lets see what develops and see a flop.

Flop is std call for the reasons above. Id call turn again to this sizing but if he bets at or over 50% then we might have to seriously think about folding. River is fine to fold if we play QQ+ like this which I mostly will as we will have some snap calls in our range and our line is protected.
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