Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 800/1,600 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

FlipToWin (SB): 39,815
ZippythePinhead (BB): 84,092
GottaRaiseMore (UTG): 29,922
TUCCI0070 (UTG+1): 83,105
Whyisjadakiss (MP): 71,484
Lionet (MP+1): 75,344
ThunderstruckACE (MP+2): 139,794
twinning2 (CO): 85,179
PremiumPlayer (BTN): 136,314

9 players post ante of 200, FlipToWin posts SB 800, ZippythePinhead posts BB 1,600

Pre Flop: (pot: 4,200) ZippythePinhead has J J

fold, fold, Whyisjadakiss raises to 4,800, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, ZippythePinhead raises to 13,250, Whyisjadakiss calls 8,450

Flop: (29,100, 2 players) 3 7 5
ZippythePinhead bets 9,600, Whyisjadakiss raises to 24,000, ZippythePinhead calls 14,400

Turn: (77,100, 2 players) A
ZippythePinhead checks, Whyisjadakiss checks

River: (77,100, 2 players) Q
ZippythePinhead checks, Whyisjadakiss checks


~115 remain in $88 60k, 100 places pay.
Villain is SN I don't recognize, from NY state, playing nondescript 26/18/0 in 16 hands. Sharkscope shows 66 games, ABI $50, -1.4k results.

I expect V wins the pot a large % of the time. His range seems to favor broadway cards or bigger pairs. Few hands you're beating here (10-10, 9-9, 8-8 no hearts) other than air. Shoving the turn or river is probably not EV+ with only about 1/2 pot bet remaining and without info on the V most of the time if he raises that flop he's going to call off.

What happened to not having a 3b range in the bb?

AP seems fine mostly, tho I wouldn't be making a range cb on that texture, we should have the best hand often and its not like hes always calling an inelastic range in this spot. I would go ahead and make it 50 - 60%, everything else looks fairly std

shouldnt we be going 3.5x-4x preflop

dislike preflop sizing as well oop.

as played id probably shrug jam river. since you didnt jam river what would your bluffing range look like in that spot?

Sure we have one of our worst hands but I think the range you'd need an unknown player to fold is too strong given the SPR. Sets and stuff.

We win when it goes x/x > 0. Check and pray.

preflop: I realize my sizing is pretty small here. Don't have a great explanation, was a bit thrown off by the 3x open by UTG2 and I thought if I go like 18k and he shoves, it turns into a really disgusting spot for me. I wouldn't really be able to fold but we'd probably be flipping at best and it's for a ton of chips before the money.

flop: definitely not range cbetting here, I would X a bunch of my bricked hands, as well as overpairs with a heart. I don't really like any option with black JJ but decided "small bet and see what happens" against likely fish was better than a X.

On river, def understand the idea to bluff jam, but in general I shy away from this type of spot vs. fish, bc we gonna have to make him fold some pretty strong absolute value hands (sets) for it to be good, and I don't have enough confidence that he won't station after having made a pretty significant investment to the pot already.
He also can easily have 88-JJhx, QhXx, those types of hands make a lot of sense for this weird fishy line imo.

thanks for the comments, let me know what you think.

call pre vs 3x open from a rec I guess.
as u mentioned, not thrilled to 3b/call and if we 3bet we'd have to go ~10.5bb or so and then we're also in a somewhat ****ty spot on a lot of flops if villain calls the 3b, which imo he will continue vs 90% of the time (3x=come on guys, who wants to play, i have a good hand I don't mind putting a lot of money in with).

pbb mixing otf, what are your thoughts on calling the small raise otf?
To me it seems really close, we call the raise and the plan is to not put another chip in on later streets unless the board runs out very favourable for us I guess.

I would def shy away from jamming river as played. Fish do show up with the nuts here a decent% and also won't fold lower flushes very often. Let's hope villain checks back worse lol

Shove or fold flop

Everyone knows JJ always loses, fold preflop

yeah, pre is aweful, im also flatting

and we can jam flop vs rec imo as he will be raising some pairs in between with a heart.

on the river i see only one option

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFRbZJXjWIA

I don't like the flop cbet. Your hand plays much better as a x/c, what's the point of betting here? you're not folding out reasonable equity and you're not getting value. By checking flop u turn your hand into a reasonable bluff catcher, still ugly don't get me wrong but I much prefer to play flop this way.

Is it not really bad if villian has a hand like KQ, AQ, AK with just one heart. Giving them a free card?

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These hands are flipping against you in equity and with position and playability on future streets they definitely have higher EV than hero's JJ in this spot. So I don't look at it as giving a free card, because the aforementioned hands/positions have higher EV than our JJ does out of posotion. Since we have lower EV and similar equity I think it's actually us that should be striving to get a free card. By having the flop check through we're the one's getting closer to showdown our ugly holding, which is great.

Great explanation thanks

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really nice said

Villain is definitely overfolding this texture. Black broadways all have equity worth folding which snap muck. BB 3bet vs MP shouldn't be conflated with an EP v LP flat spot, ranges interact differently. I like the cbet and would do it with range.

Moreover, I don't think JJ has properties which make it that good a bluffcatcher. Would much rather 7x, 5x, AA (obv) or any heart (even when hearts brick)

Agree with this. You probably have the best hand here, but getting to sd will be tough when you check, and you are ahead less often when you get there than you are now.

I'd cbet a bit bigger than you did, maybe around 40% pot, expecting villain to fold most hands, and continue with overs with a FD, sets, pairs with a FD etc. I would likely then check turn evaluate river on a lot of runouts.

In the calm of a forum I'd think about folding to the flop raise, but may level myself into calling it in the actual game. Checking turn and river is fine.

+1 for both the bigger flop bet and the reflection of the calm of a forum vs 'in the moment'... good points both

This is a super ugly spot on the flop. When I put in his possible call range in Flopzilla he hs a total of 150 hands going to the flop. Before any action is taken your hand has 61% equity versus his entire range.

A c-bet has the potential of folding 85/150 hands unless he calls with air just to see what you do on the turn.

With the 65 remaining hands, your equity is only 41% after a c-bet and he doesn't fold. Of those he will have a combination of raises and calls.

To me that math indicates to check this hand on the flop. However, all of the negatives of checking as pointed out already indicates that checking is bad. If you check, you are basically giving up all of your equity as you will probably not be able to showdown very often.

Then again, making it to showdown does not even guarantee a win, as I can see some people trying to pot control sets and 2 pairs on this board.

So does that mean you are supposed to turn this hand into a bluff? And that means at least planning a double barrel to win this hand?

I will honestly say, I'm glad you were in this spot rather than I.

There is no ambition to get a better hand to fold. The 33% cbet collects as much protection as JJ can expect to get, then it can start checking (c/f on plenty of turns and rivers).

After a cbet, if he has a heart he will probably win the pot, if he doesn't we likely win. It is what it is.

Other than sizing up somewhat pre flop I really have zero problem with how this hand was played.

I think JJ is simply too strong to be flatting pre in BB vs MP open. On low monotone boards like this betting flop small affords us reasonable protection vs Ax/Kx hands without a heart as well as allowing us to get called by a fair number of worse hands. Once villain raises we simply need to call and try to get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

To add to Bearer's response to this. When we are cbetting here, we are hoping to get worse hands that ours to fold, as counter-intuitive as that seems. We want black KQ to fold because they are incorrectly folding to the odds we are giving them. It's not a bluff, but realising our equity.

This is countered by the fact we are often going to be called or raised in this spot by draws which we are ahead of, and in that case we lose the cbet and the rest of the pot. But then we are going to lose this pot a good % of the time if villain has any level of aggression. The cbet gives us a chance of winning it.

The better villain is at turning non-heart calls into bluffs on later streets, the worse the cbet is I think because a ton of EV comes from villain complying with a checking down when he calls with non-hearts (mostly worse value hands and sets).

If he has the wherewithal to turn 87cc into a bluff as the relative strength of his hand tails off, maybe we'd do well to just go into defense mode with range on the flop and just call down with some MDF approx.