That is an awkard situation on all streets springing from the pre flop action where you put in more than 1/4th of your stack. To be honest I would just fold, you can find a better spot than this one. Flop is also really awkard, sure you have A high and some backdoors but you are really shallow which makes probably makes it better to fold. The board is for sure nailing your range but to shove river you probably have to bet turn which you basicly cant, people are not not checking back trips on the turn and it would suck so hard if you got called down by villains exact hand. If you had 5 more BB it would be a better call pre, on the flop and you could actually turn your hand into a bluff but as played I don't like it.
Pre is kinda gross for any option, might just fold but flatting is fine if villain is aggro/balancing bb 3b range (often lopsided towards value). Turn seems good and river is decent spot to unload vs weakish sd value when we have some Jx, villain will be lacking Jx/have a tough call with anything else, and not too many bluff combos that we call pre, call flop, check turn and shove river with.
thanks for the replies. I do agree about the idea of folding pre, although what weighed my decision was that the guy was Vp 27, PFR 20, No FTS stats (only over 30 hands, which is not statistically significant).
I agree that Jx is not in his range, I guess a KK, AA is sometimes in his range but not too often, as well as Qx, AQ,. 88-TT is within his range as well of course AK.
on the river the pot has become larger than my stack, therefore I feel that villain may have been pressed to call his 99-TT and maybe even his AK. I did think at the time my had may have had a small amount of showdown value, but I think that is almost non existent after writing this all out.
as you guys said I like the idea of folding pre, and I guess due to the high SPR ratio I should really be shoving on the river, although I'm not too happy about it.
Also I flatted that flop without thinking through turn and river possibilities... Kinda dumb
Unless we have some read he's aggro, I'm in the fold pre to the 3b, fold flop sd played camp. 30bb is an awkward stack size, and the call pre is 25% of our stack, with perhaps another 25% if we float flop, and even if we hit our Ace, we can be up against AQ, AK a fair chunk of time, and if we hit a T, we may well be behind as well.
We could jam river, but what are we repping - slow played Jack perhaps, or a Queen, but in both those cases we may well have bet turn. Lower PPs - we might just be happy to check those out. In other words, I feel that villain may reel a fair part of our range here is FoS, and he may make the hero call with a better Ace.
Last edited by hitchens97; 05-14-2016 at 05:07 PM.
I think checking river is fine/ don't wana shove 16bbs and get called to be out (I'm sure this went through your head) to me, shoving is only slightly worse than a check-back
And as mentioned I don't think v plays Jx this way often enough nor take this line- but you are also capped to 88+ with almost no Jx in your range maybe(AJ suited) since you 2.5x opened thencalled a 3b pre, and if v is any type of thinking player- he's going to -
1. Hero call you otr realizing AQ is the only value hand he is losing to (since QQ+ would have shoved pre)
2. Figure you dont have AQ due to your check back ott
3. Show up with 99+>thru ak once you check back
Villains check ott and riv made you want to steal.
He was likely aware (or hoping) he has the best hand most of the time, but just didn't want to bet.
Your shove in the river would have been less than 1/5 villains's stack. This is the big reason why I think checking back is only slightly better than shoving... it's very close
prob fold flop and tell no-one but i really want more chips to 4!/f
river is interesting, but we've all been in these spots before where you end up in a stalemate:
you are checking the weaker part of your value range otr
you are betting <AI with the stronger part of your value range otr
you are jamming 0% of your value range otr
BUT
V is checking behind with his weaker hands
V is sigh calling his weaker hands TT- AK to an <AI bet otr
V should figure out that you jam 0 for value and call
So V covers your every move. Which leads to a sensible flop decision to fold.