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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 03-09-2019, 04:21 PM   #1
EggsMcBluffin
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ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

I think I've got a pretty good thread idea here.

In this thread, I'll routinely post some new content in the form of GTO tree sets, mainly preflop trees

Each tree set will refer to a particular positional configuration (BTNvBB, SBvBB, etc.) and will consist of two trees that differ either by fixing the effective stacks and changing the starting ranges OR by changing the effective stacks and fixing the starting ranges.

Then I'll post some questions about observed differences between the trees. All reading this--please feel free to do the same. This is NOT my thread--it's ours.

I think the most important part of the analysis is developing an intuition for the sensitivity of these trees--why and how does the strategy change when we either change the eff stacks or the starting ranges?

For example, if some hands go from pure limps to pure raises--why? If some hands go from pure jams to mixed jams and raises--why? If some hands go from folds to VPIPs--why? Questions of that nature. The quantity of distinct question we can possibly ask is infinite.

There are too many possible trees and each tree is too complicated to ever worry about memorization. However, the intuition is INCREDIBLY important--it's the basis for how we actually, practically, make decisions at the table.

I think it's also important to remember that the answer is likely multifactoral and more than one (perhaps infinitely many) answers are valid. The thought process and the justification is perhaps more important than the answers themselves.
__________________________________________________ ___________________________________
Tree #1

So without further ado, let's start off with a preflop tree.

This one is BvB.

Both SB and BB are starting out with all possible starting hands in their ranges. Tree 1a is 20bb eff. Tree 1b is 30bb eff. 10% antes are in play at a full ring 9-handed table. So starting pot before SB acts is 2.4bb. The node we're looking at is SB's first action. His strategy profile is he can either complete (limp), r3.5x, jam, or fold.

Tree #1a: BvB, SB 1st to act, 20bb eff, full starting ranges


Tree #1b: BvB, SB 1st to act, 30bb eff, full starting ranges


1. Let's start off with just one question: why are so many hands pure limps at 20bb eff that are otherwise pure or mixed r3.5x at 30bb eff? I'll tell you that BB's strategy vs a limp does not raise at an appreciably higher frequency for 20bb eff compared to 30bb effective.
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Old 03-09-2019, 10:43 PM   #2
cneuy3
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

At 20bb, your sim has a substantial larger open shoving range from the SB compared to your 30bb sim. With those hands removed the solver has to include more stronger hands in a limping range to protect the wider weaker limps it chooses to VPIP. It's a more polarized limping range than the one the solver calculated at 30bb.

In the answer to the second part, why does BB iso raise less at 20bb or the same it's in direction relation the the strength and composition of that limping range from the SB. SB's range is still well balanced and while it may be a wider limping range than in your 30bb example it includes an equal portion of higher equity limps in the equation.

Also consider SB's strategy at 20 facing an iso raise from the BB vs facing an iso raise from the BB at 30. In the former the SB is going to have alot more limp-shoves. You should also try messing with SB's open raise size at 20bb's and maybe even slightly downsize it at 30bb's. A SB's strategy at 20bb's that includes a 3.5 open size doesn't seem optimal to me in a GTO mix. Even BB iso'ing to 3.5 after a limp off 20 seems excessive for those stack depths. If you lower those sizes a bit you may find more isos and open raises at that stack depth.
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Old 03-10-2019, 11:35 PM   #3
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Quote:
Originally Posted by cneuy3 View Post
At 20bb, your sim has a substantial larger open shoving range from the SB compared to your 30bb sim. With those hands removed the solver has to include more stronger hands in a limping range to protect the wider weaker limps it chooses to VPIP. It's a more polarized limping range than the one the solver calculated at 30bb.

In the answer to the second part, why does BB iso raise less at 20bb or the same it's in direction relation the the strength and composition of that limping range from the SB. SB's range is still well balanced and while it may be a wider limping range than in your 30bb example it includes an equal portion of higher equity limps in the equation.

Also consider SB's strategy at 20 facing an iso raise from the BB vs facing an iso raise from the BB at 30. In the former the SB is going to have alot more limp-shoves. You should also try messing with SB's open raise size at 20bb's and maybe even slightly downsize it at 30bb's. A SB's strategy at 20bb's that includes a 3.5 open size doesn't seem optimal to me in a GTO mix. Even BB iso'ing to 3.5 after a limp off 20 seems excessive for those stack depths. If you lower those sizes a bit you may find more isos and open raises at that stack depth.
Welcome to the thread! Please stick around for more tree set installments.

Regarding your post:

1. Both the 20bb and 30bb strats call for limping at nearly identical frequencies.

In fact, really the only high level difference (referring to the overall distribution of frequency between jam-raise-limp-fold) is at 20bb we're shifting frequency from raise to jam

Yes, indeed, at 20bb we have a substantially larger open shoving range. To you and anyone else who cares to opine: why? Why is open shoving higher EV at this stack depth, but not at 30bb? Remember, no questions are too trivial in this exercise! But let's try to get as deep as we possibly can.

2. Excellent observation on how we're limping more polar at 20bb. I think your answer touches on it, but again, let's try to get as deep as possible: why is more polar limping range higher EV at 20bb compared to 30bb?

3. All your points certainly seem valid, and good job predicting the strats of those nodes which haven't been shown.

4. We will certainly see which sizes are optimal when I rerun including a smaller opening size in the strategy profile. FWIW I respectfully submit that we won't deny enough equity with smaller sizing, and so the smaller sizing will be a dominated strategy--but that's merely my guess at this point. I'll have to rerun to confirm. And no matter what, kudos for that great suggestion. I hope I'm wrong--that means I'm learning.
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Old 03-11-2019, 10:01 AM   #4
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Really great idea for a thread. This has a ton of potential.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin View Post

There are too many possible trees and each tree is too complicated to ever worry about memorization. However, the intuition is INCREDIBLY important--it's the basis for how we actually, practically, make decisions at the table.
In particular, I think this is one of the best one-liners of advice I've seen on this forum.

Let me try to answer some of your questions; let me know what you think.

Quote:
1. Let's start off with just one question: why are so many hands pure limps at 20bb eff that are otherwise pure or mixed r3.5x at 30bb eff?
PIO solutions are complicated enough that anything I write will be somewhat of an oversimplification, but generally, when playing big-bet poker being all-in is a really good thing. You maximize fold equity and cannot be bluffed off the best hand. The downside to being all-in is that it costs all your chips to do it. When we 3.5x off a 20 BB stack we are offering our opponent a bunch of profitable jams, because the downside of losing their stack isn't big enough to outweigh the upside of being all in. This equation changes at 30 BB deep.

Quote:
To you and anyone else who cares to opine: why? Why is open shoving higher EV at this stack depth, but not at 30bb?
Same concept at play with risk/reward ratio. Risking 19.5 BBs to win 2.4 is a fairly attractive risk/reward when preflop equities run mostly close together as they do in NLHE. 29.5 to win 2.4 is less attractive.

Quote:
why is more polar limping range higher EV at 20bb compared to 30bb?
Think it comes back to it being great to be all in, and 20 BBs is a great limp/jam stack? It's great to limp/jam and get called when we have AKo/JJ type hands and we need to balance this by limping some decenly robust bluff hands like (guessing here) J8s? On the other hand, when we have a 30 BB stack there are fewer limp/jam opportunities and we're probably doing a lot more limp-calling.

I have two questions of my own:

1. One epiphany I had from these charts (particuarly the jam chart for 30 BBs) is that it can be unexploitable to have jam ranges that don't include any nutty hands. Why is this? (Eggs McBluffin I bet you know this, I wonder if anyone else can figure it out)

2. I wonder how much we gain by using 4 nodes on the decision tree at 20 BB rather than 2 (namely, jam or fold)? Note, even if we don't gain much this is still a really interesting exercise. But, I wonder if PIO can quantify how much EV we can capture from playing this way, and playing perfectly postflop, vs. just being a pushmonkey? (Of course I mean this in a GTO sense; exploitatively it's a whole other question)
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Old 03-11-2019, 11:37 AM   #5
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeC2012 View Post
One epiphany I had from these charts (particuarly the jam chart for 30 BBs) is that it can be unexploitable to have jam ranges that don't include any nutty hands. Why is this? (Eggs McBluffin I bet you know this, I wonder if anyone else can figure it out)
It's for the same reason why if one wanted to they could shove exactly {A5o} and those combos only in the SB at 20BB and still have an unexploitably profitable shoving range while not the optimal one. Considering the chips already in the pot there is not a range BB can call where it will ever become a minus EV shove for the SB.

Apply that same concept of logic to the range in the 30bb sim. While the SB shoving range doesn't have any nutted hands the BB just cannot find enough calls to ever make the sims SB's shoving strategy minus EV.
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Old 03-11-2019, 11:42 AM   #6
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin View Post
why is more polar limping range higher EV at 20bb compared to 30bb?
It mostly just comes down to it's a strategy that allows us to VPIP all those bottom tier hands from the SB. If we would start shoving more of those stronger hands or raising them then our limping range would become gutted at the top and allow BB to raise or shove us off our equity with the bottom portion of our range much more often. In turn we would have to tighten up our limping range considerably in this spot. Limping these stronger hands allows us the protection to also limp the Q3o, etc.
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Old 03-11-2019, 05:12 PM   #7
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Cool thread, thanks.
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Old 03-12-2019, 07:17 AM   #8
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Great thread. This stuff is way over my head but it'll be good to read 100 times over. Thanks
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Old 03-12-2019, 07:54 PM   #9
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Potentially elementary PIO question (to which I assume the answer is no): does it account for card removal in the SB vs BB situation? Like, at a 9 handed table, if it folds to the SB I would expect aces to be overrepresented in both the SBs and BBs ranges. This might even be a big enough effect to significantly change preflop strategy, but I don't know for sure.
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Old 03-12-2019, 08:26 PM   #10
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeC2012 View Post
Potentially elementary PIO question (to which I assume the answer is no): does it account for card removal in the SB vs BB situation? Like, at a 9 handed table, if it folds to the SB I would expect aces to be overrepresented in both the SBs and BBs ranges. This might even be a big enough effect to significantly change preflop strategy, but I don't know for sure.
Nice responses.

No card removal. Its modeled as a pure HU spot.
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Old 03-12-2019, 10:50 PM   #11
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeC2012 View Post

1. One epiphany I had from these charts (particuarly the jam chart for 30 BBs) is that it can be unexploitable to have jam ranges that don't include any nutty hands. Why is this? (Eggs McBluffin I bet you know this, I wonder if anyone else can figure it out)
You say unexploitable, what you really should say is "highest EV overall strategy for our entire range" with our range in this case being ATC (remember this is SB's 1st to act node in BvB--his range is ATC at this point)

I think its because those real nutty hands (AA, KK, etc) are just way too good to risk V folding at this point, while those particular hands that are non-nutted but are open jams (AXo, KXo, 22-44, those connectors in the interior) are some combination of blockers to V's calling range, ahead of his calling range but very vulnerable, or behind his calling range yet still decently high equity and either too weak to open but still too strong to fold. And since our actual overall range is ATC, we gotta stick these hands somewhere.

Cneuy3's points essentially deal with this same idea--that we can't ignore any possible combo bc our range is ATC, we either need to VPIP it (and we should wanna VPIP as many as possible to capture as much EV) or fold it.

And it just so happens--perhaps unintuitively, or perhaps not--that our overall strategy;s EV is maximized in this configuration when the strategy looks like this.

When you look at the open jam range in particular as a whole, it's almost as if we still do have nutted hands (the pairs and bigger AXo), bluffs (the interior connectors) and semibluffs (The weaker AXo). The range is actually constructed as you might expect. It's just things are normalized differently--44 are like AA in this context lol

IDK, something like that. Need to study this more myself

Does anyone else wanna take a stab at explaining the composition of our 20bb BvB SB 1st to act open shove range (Seen in Tree #1a)?

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 03-12-2019 at 10:57 PM.
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Old 03-13-2019, 12:52 PM   #12
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

^ Eggs, for this above post, specifically the part about "open jam range in particular or as a whole," I assume you're referring to the open jam range for SB 20bb, and not for 30bb, yes? Because it doesn't seem like there's a whole lot of open jamming at 30bb (which, as a side note, makes analyzing this 30bb open jam range interesting).

I ask mostly because the post you quoted references 30bb, but the analysis seems to pertain to the 20bb open jam range.
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Old 03-13-2019, 01:03 PM   #13
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Quote:
Originally Posted by angel zera View Post
^ Eggs, for this above post, specifically the part about "open jam range in particular or as a whole," I assume you're referring to the open jam range for SB 20bb, and not for 30bb, yes? Because it doesn't seem like there's a whole lot of open jamming at 30bb (which, as a side note, makes analyzing this 30bb open jam range interesting).

I ask mostly because the post you quoted references 30bb, but the analysis seems to pertain to the 20bb open jam range.
That's right, angel. Tree 1a.

Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 03-13-2019 at 01:10 PM.
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Old 03-13-2019, 02:13 PM   #14
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin View Post
Nice responses.

No card removal. Its modeled as a pure HU spot.
First of all thanks for all the responses, I owe you a more thought out post later but I'm currently traveling for work.

I just ran these figures on a plane ride and it turns out that it does make a significant difference. With no card removal (in other words, if UTG through BU fold everything) we'd expect 1.08 aces to be out whereas if people are playing the upswing ranges only 0.55 aces should be out. In other words if you're in the SB and don't hold an ace, the charts posted assume the BB is playing with a deck of 36 cards that contain 2.92 aces when in reality it's probably more like 3.45.

Anyway I don't want to derail much further since this clearly isn't the point of the thread, but I saw some people in other thread so referencing these charts and wanted to point out that GTO is probably to play moderately tighter than these.
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Old 03-14-2019, 05:16 AM   #15
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

I would run the 20bb stack depth with smaller open(or you can try it with multiple sizings and see what PIO prefers). You should also try to nodelock a bit of villains range, so you can see how to play vs different opponents, It would make this more interesting. Let's say the opponent jams a lot vs our open, how should we change our strategy, what If the opponent calls all our opens, Instead of 3betting/jamming?

In the end, it's great to understand the basis of GTO strategy, but most of the time it's useless because only a few top regs actually understand the concept and vs general population, we can use exploitative strategies from SB.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:12 AM   #16
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

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Originally Posted by 9tablingnit View Post
I would run the 20bb stack depth with smaller open(or you can try it with multiple sizings and see what PIO prefers). You should also try to nodelock a bit of villains range, so you can see how to play vs different opponents, It would make this more interesting. Let's say the opponent jams a lot vs our open, how should we change our strategy, what If the opponent calls all our opens, Instead of 3betting/jamming?

In the end, it's great to understand the basis of GTO strategy, but most of the time it's useless because only a few top regs actually understand the concept and vs general population, we can use exploitative strategies from SB.
Absolutely absurd, but you go ahead and keep thinking that.

And node locking is a postflop concept.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:35 AM   #17
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Quote:
In the end, it's great to understand the basis of GTO strategy, but most of the time it's useless because only a few top regs actually understand the concept and vs general population, we can use exploitative strategies from SB.
But how can you learn how to exploit if you don't understand the basic theoretical concepts and how you should be playing in theory?

Also most people don't recommend trying to play GTO and it's usually recommended for off table work to learn about the game.

If you think that you can learn more doing work without a solver than someone that is using a solver I'd be interested in hearing you try to explain that.

Also node locking is getting into exploiting.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:38 AM   #18
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

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Originally Posted by numberonedonk View Post
But how can you learn how to exploit if you don't understand the basic theoretical concepts and how you should be playing in theory?

Also most people don't recommend trying to play GTO and it's usually recommended for off table work to learn about the game.

If you think that you can learn more doing work without a solver than someone that is using a solver I'd be interested in hearing you try to explain that.

Also node locking is getting into exploiting.
Yeah, my point was to first calculate the GTO calculation, but then move on node-locking and checking how different players react to your doings. An exploitative play is where you find the most edge.

My point: I used too much time last year calculating GTO-solutions, when in fact I should have spent time node-locking and checking how the population plays. Most of the time GTO calculations are not even close to reality how the pool plays or different profiles.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:43 AM   #19
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

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Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin View Post
Absolutely absurd, but you go ahead and keep thinking that.

And node locking is a postflop concept.
You can node-lock pre-flop tendencies as well.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:47 AM   #20
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

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Originally Posted by 9tablingnit View Post
You can node-lock pre-flop tendencies as well.
You can't node lock on an incomplete tree, which preflop trees are--without flops, the node-locked solution makes no sense because preflop trees are trained on subsets of all possible flops. You can try, you won't get a sensible result.

Reading your posts, I'm starting to think you actually have no idea what you're talking about.

BTW a pure GTO strat would absolutey crush. Good luck defending against it.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:59 AM   #21
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

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Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin View Post
You can't node lock on an incomplete tree, which preflop trees are--without flops, the node-locked solution makes no sense because preflop trees are trained on subsets of all possible flops. You can try, you won't get a sensible result.

Reading your posts, I'm starting to think you actually have no idea what you're talking about.

BTW a pure GTO strat would absolutey crush. Good luck defending against it.
https://www.piosolver.com/blogs/news...preflop-solver
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Old 03-14-2019, 01:45 PM   #22
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Your GTO strategy is a series of fixed bets that you put into the solver for preflop. You gave SB the option to fold, complete, raise to 3.5bb, or to go all in and the solver came up with a gto solution under those constraints. If you had given the solver more options or less options or different sizes it would have come up with a different solution. That's something you should keep in mind. If you want to keep your base strategy around these fixed constraints that is fine but you should still try and learn how to cope with other GTO strategies or just other strategies. I doubt very much you'll face alot of 3.5bb opens from the SB in today's games off 20bb.
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Old 03-15-2019, 11:59 PM   #23
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

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Originally Posted by 9tablingnit View Post
Thanks! I stand corrected, although with the caveat that the tree still has to be in memory--not exactly trivial if the tree is 200gb large, can't be saving each and every full tree at that size and who wants to wait to recalculate a 200gb tree?

I take back what I said earlier.

Still friends?
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Old 03-16-2019, 12:00 AM   #24
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

Quote:
Originally Posted by cneuy3 View Post
Your GTO strategy is a series of fixed bets that you put into the solver for preflop. You gave SB the option to fold, complete, raise to 3.5bb, or to go all in and the solver came up with a gto solution under those constraints. If you had given the solver more options or less options or different sizes it would have come up with a different solution. That's something you should keep in mind. If you want to keep your base strategy around these fixed constraints that is fine but you should still try and learn how to cope with other GTO strategies or just other strategies. I doubt very much you'll face alot of 3.5bb opens from the SB in today's games off 20bb.
Yeah, hence

Quote:
There are too many possible trees and each tree is too complicated to ever worry about memorization. However, the intuition is INCREDIBLY important--it's the basis for how we actually, practically, make decisions at the table.
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Old 03-16-2019, 07:31 AM   #25
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Re: ITT: I post Preflop GTO Trees

fold limp 3.5 shove seems like a fair range of options

the only significant additional BvB option would be min raise IP (SB/BTN) in a heads up match
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