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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 11-07-2017, 06:26 PM   #1
zanardi1
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Interesting turn spot against good reg

This hand is from a while ago, WCOOP. Villain is a good reg, were like 40 or 50 away from the money. He is on the looser side running 25/16 steal 25 from CO although in 200 hands.
So the question is, should we bluff this turn?
Thanks in advance.

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $1,000 Buy-in (700/1,400 blinds, 175 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 72,308 (51.6 bb)
Hero (BB): 38,987 (27.8 bb)
UTG+2: 75,603 (54 bb)
MP1: 44,664 (31.9 bb)
MP2: 61,108 (43.6 bb)
MP3: 21,783 (15.6 bb)
CO: 34,300 (24.5 bb)
BTN: 50,174 (35.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J 8
4 folds, CO raises to 3,220, 2 folds, Hero calls 1,820

Flop: (8,540) J 8 A (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets 2,818, Hero raises to 10,675, CO calls 7,857

Turn: (29,890) Q (2 players)
Hero???
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Old 11-07-2017, 06:30 PM   #2
daviid
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

you shouldn't have much of a checkraising range on this flop and if you do want to have one, bottom 2p shouldn't rly make it into it.

as played i dont get the question. if you bet turn its obv not a bluff but your hand is too thin to bet which leaves a check.
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Old 11-08-2017, 01:39 AM   #3
lolposting2016
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

Raising on a 28 bb stack w this hand isn't 2 bad tho above poster is right u don't rly wanna be doing much raising on aj8 in this spot
sucks you caught the worst turn in the deck. That said, this turn should be pretty good for your range as you have lotta 910 and some Spade combos as a bluff raise here
All in all seems like a pretty easy x behind your 8spade helps here for a x behind so protection betting here isn't so necessary
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Old 11-08-2017, 06:13 AM   #4
zanardi1
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

Quote:
Originally Posted by lolposting2016 View Post
Raising on a 28 bb stack w this hand isn't 2 bad tho above poster is right u don't rly wanna be doing much raising on aj8 in this spot
sucks you caught the worst turn in the deck. That said, this turn should be pretty good for your range as you have lotta 910 and some Spade combos as a bluff raise here
All in all seems like a pretty easy x behind your 8spade helps here for a x behind so protection betting here isn't so necessary
Cant x behind, you mean just x/f?
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Old 11-08-2017, 09:12 AM   #5
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

CO vs BB this shallow I just get it in on turn. Many awkward rivers and still get value from plenty of Ax + decent equity when we are behind.
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Old 11-08-2017, 09:46 AM   #6
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

c/f turn. There are just way too many combos that beat us. Hopefully V checks back and we get a free river card
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Old 11-08-2017, 03:36 PM   #7
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

Yeah one of worst turn cards
c/d turn
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Old 11-08-2017, 05:03 PM   #8
zanardi1
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

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Yeah one of worst turn cards
c/d turn
My thoughts are despite this is prob the worse turn for my actual holding, it is overall a good card for my range where flushes, gutters and straight draws got there.
Thinking of jamming for the following reasons:
A bet could actually work as a bluff, since villain can potentially fold 2 pair.
A bet can deny equity against villains x/back range which will have good equity against my hand, especially against Ax with a spade.
A bet can prevent us from folding best hand in future streets, since in these texture i think we rarely get to showndown by checking down.
If we bet and behind, we still have equity to improve.
OTOH, if we check, were basically giving up and not sure thats correct in a spot were villain is expected to apply pressure fairly often.
Btw shared hand with a couple of good players and got mixed views so very open to keep hear opinions.

Thanks in advance.
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Old 11-09-2017, 01:30 AM   #9
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

Quote:
Originally Posted by zanardi1 View Post
My thoughts are despite this is prob the worse turn for my actual holding, it is overall a good card for my range where flushes, gutters and straight draws got there.
Thinking of jamming for the following reasons:
A bet could actually work as a bluff, since villain can potentially fold 2 pair.
A bet can deny equity against villains x/back range which will have good equity against my hand, especially against Ax with a spade.
A bet can prevent us from folding best hand in future streets, since in these texture i think we rarely get to showndown by checking down.
If we bet and behind, we still have equity to improve.
OTOH, if we check, were basically giving up and not sure thats correct in a spot were villain is expected to apply pressure fairly often.
Btw shared hand with a couple of good players and got mixed views so very open to keep hear opinions.

Thanks in advance.
This is good thinking. I think on the flop he's likely capped at an ace. I think 2 pair sets and even good draws may just jam flop over our raise.

I think I jam here..even if we are called we may have a number of outs

As us old Bridge players used to say, let the opponents make the last decision...
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Old 11-09-2017, 12:46 PM   #10
lolposting2016
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

Yea sorry I read it as op was ip
I'd honest just check /jam here don't think you need a small xr size on this board w this stack
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Old 11-09-2017, 05:09 PM   #11
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

Little choice but to jam here. Villian shud be weighted heavily towards Ax here then anything else
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Old 11-11-2017, 09:35 PM   #12
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

I would jam here.

Worst case he has 2 pair and you have 11 or 13 outs to a flush or full house. (OK really worst case is he has a royal flush or a flush better than 8 high and you have 4 outs)

Almost Best case he has one pair and no flush draw (whether he folds or not)

Better case he has one pair with flush draw and you get him to fold or he calls and doesn't improve...

Best case is he folds a better two pair or one pair with a flush draw.
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Old 11-12-2017, 06:21 AM   #13
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

Seeing as the spades out there are all high cards (including an ace) I can't imagine villain has a flush, unless it's a Royal
Just jam, to fold out straight draw and flush draws. And you may get called with a weak ace (range looks like mostly Ax). It's only two thirds pot left I think
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Old 11-12-2017, 09:34 AM   #14
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

daviid's post, and c/f to a shove
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Old 11-15-2017, 12:25 AM   #15
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

Quote:
Originally Posted by daviid View Post
you shouldn't have much of a checkraising range on this flop
why? certainly GTO defies "conventional wisdom" of protecting one's range there and in fact does fair bit of xr I think to deny equity to many gutters on this texture.

effects of getting it in outkicked decrease at shallower depths and also when shallower, protecting our range becomes less important, because V has less room to punish our range with 3 streets.

Quote:
Originally Posted by daviid View Post
and if you do want to have one, bottom 2p shouldn't rly make it into it.
wtf, bottom 2p is like the number one xr hand here
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Old 11-15-2017, 04:37 AM   #16
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

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Originally Posted by RalphWaldoEmerson View Post
why? certainly GTO defies "conventional wisdom" of protecting one's range there and in fact does fair bit of xr I think to deny equity to many gutters on this texture.
Agree w this premise, and was going to comment on the flop x/r, but do think that ~3.4:1 spr complicates our sizing preference, where our xr range is now almost wanting to be cib, and kinda negates wat we want to accomplish
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Old 11-15-2017, 05:08 PM   #17
zanardi1
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

FWIW pio said raise this flop 100% and jam turn 65% with combo.
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Old 11-15-2017, 06:09 PM   #18
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

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Originally Posted by zanardi1 View Post
FWIW pio said raise this flop 100% and jam turn 65% with combo.
What sizing? Also the pot is bloated with antes so spr is affected. Would think the greater we size our raise, the leas hands that make sense to xr, moving more x/c but w/e
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Old 11-15-2017, 07:07 PM   #19
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

with <1 spr shovel turn
becomes a c/d spot over spr 1, although can also get on board with 40% lead
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Old 11-15-2017, 10:04 PM   #20
daviid
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

interesting stuff. my assumption was that given stacks and board texture sizing could rly become an issue if we start checkraising flop here. i just dont see how we could possibly xr/fold ever which is why id strongly lean towards x/c my entire range otf. i agree that it leads to some awkward turn spots but so does a non-ai x/r otf.
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Old 11-17-2017, 06:10 AM   #21
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

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Originally Posted by daviid View Post
i just dont see how we could possibly xr/fold ever which is why id strongly lean towards x/c my entire range otf.

Why shouldn't we be able to x/r/f certain low equity draws etc.?
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Old 11-17-2017, 04:29 PM   #22
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

tough spot, i could never see why dont c/r here with this spr here. But when u get called i think mostly is AK, AQ, A-10 here or a big draw. Aj, A8, jj, 88 , AA i think he would shove. The hard part is to assume if he hit AQ or the flush draw, but i think he is on a f draw because of the combo number ho lean to a f draw. I think you should check turn and fold if villain shoves because i dont think there will be bluffs in his range.. If he check turn , means Ak, A-10. Hard spot
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Old 11-19-2017, 05:57 PM   #23
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Re: Interesting turn spot against good reg

C/jam on flop is totally fine up to spr 5 and probably beyond any time there’s a two suit flop. Easy to balance 2pr with multis and frequently misread and called by single pair opponents. Works in cash and mtts alike. Hugely profitable.

Mind you, it’s better with A65 flop than AJx obv.

Last edited by oldsilver; 11-19-2017 at 06:04 PM.
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