$50 ACR $50k guarantee. We are not yet ITM and bubble is probably a good 3-4 levels aways. No more re-entry.

I have around 45 bbs and am in MP. V has around 33 bbs and is BB. V is on aggressive side, seen him make a few shoves, but hasn't been called.

OTTH

I open to 2.2 bbs with 8c8h. V defends.

Flop (6 bbs): 5h7c9h. V x/cs my 2.4 bb c-bet.

Turn (10.8 bbs): 7h. V leads for 6 bbs! I call with my pair, draws and position, also figuring V recognizes he has range advantage.

River (22.8 bbs): 9d. V shoves 22.4 bbs. What's my move here? This shove seemed really bluffy to me as he was not repping a 9 with his turn bet and he set up pot size river shove with his sizing.

Thoughts on all streets welcome and appreciated.

What do you think you are beating here?

I definitely think there are bluffs in V's range; e.g., JT, Ahx. V's line was very strange -- he's repping a flush (maybe a 7) on turn. River shove is repping a 9, maybe a 7. So to me, it's most likely V has a 7 or air.

What are all the hands beating you here that you put him on?

7x, flush, maybe 9x.

I should add that flush line is strange to pot size shove river on double paired board with action on every street.

I don't see how this is not a call

Cool hand, at first glance I thought this was a nice catcher, but after thinking, I dont think Villain can shove straights and flushes for value at this point, maybe check call these to induce bluffs from you having Ahx or whatever.

So us having two 8s and blocking villain having bluffs like 108, J8 , 8hA means this probably isn't a good bluff catcher and so too a pot sized river jam we have too many better calls we can use where this should be folded IMHO

I definetly think a lot of people will lead 9x on this turn, as IP lacks 7x and so probably doesn't raise the turn much and so OOP will want to protect 9x a decent amount, even on 3 flush turn, so 9x cannot be discounted

Easy fold with you having plenty of 9x including basically all 99, some 7x including basically all 77, and basically all AhXh, Kh8h+, Qh8h+, Jh8h.

You really don't have ideal blockers either. 8hXh all pretty much way too strong not to xr flop.

TT+, A5 (if you have it), AhKx, AhQx are more interesting decisions with T7-A7, 75 being basically the modal combos in OOP's range.

I think it’s an easy fold. You are really only beating AhX which is the only bluff that makes sense as played. I don’t know why you are excluding 55 or even 1010+ if you think the turn bet was based solely on range advantage.

It looks to me like V bet enough on the turn so he could set up a pot size shove on the river- he was not trying to take down the pot on the turn. It’s definitely a strange line but it would be stranger to me of it turned out to be a bluff. Did you call?

as was said, suited 8s are likely to raise flop because they have combo draws, but additionally Tx8h is a likely bluff for this line making the 8h an even worse card to have.

i think i'd just fold anyways with no read, but to humor the hand -
is it a mistake for him to bomb flushes?

my estimate of your range is:

7x, 9x and quads are only around 20 combos (i think that's generous)

Ah with KQJT even at half frequency (because you often check flop, might not raise ATo, etc) are somewhere around 30.

overpairs are another 30.

88/66 with heart another 6 / if you call without heart another 12. let's call it 10.

flushes have maybe 20 possible combos based on pre but some are checked on flop and some raise turn, and some fold pre with split frequency. let's call it 10 to keep numbers round.

that brings it to 100 total combos.

with this range if you called 50% to make his bluff break even you'd be calling with 20 combos worse than a flush, and 30 combos that are flushes +. the nut flush would be on the cusp of profitable based on these ranges. which still likely makes it a check because it would probably do better as a check/call.

but if the nut flush is a check/call (or if not a smaller bet size), then does the Ah for your AT-AKo have any value as a bluff catcher in theory?

Really good thoughts by everyone. I folded after tanking, mostly because my 88 with 8h blocked too many of his draws. I think everyone is excluding JT, especially with a heart, which is a bluffing hand that makes sense with his line.

I do think bombing flushes by V is really bad here for all the reasons Eggs gave ... I can have too many boats or better, so better to just x/c with flush.

55 is definitely a possibility, although it probably x/cs river a decent amount of time. I just don't think TT+ makes any sense at all. First, it's probably going to 3! pf a fair amount of time. Second, why turn this hand into a bluff with all the sdv it has?

range advantage doesn't mean you bet 100%. 10s would be almost purely a c/c on turn even if he donks some hands because the 7 favors him. same goes for 9x. this is the dilemma.

the sets all predominantly raise the flop, 9x doesn't donk the turn, and flushes don't make sense for value. adding 55 or nut flushes into his value range makes it an even worse call but they're pretty unreasonable river bombs and aren't necessary to make this a fold.

even if he never does this with worse than a 7, never has a 9x and always follows through with turn donk bluffs by bombing the river, it's still debatable whether you'd want to call the river jam with less than a 7.

his bluffs look to be T8 and JT with a heart, A6 and A8 with the A of hearts, maybe A6 and A8 with the other heart with partial frequency... this is around 20 combos of possible bluffs. he has about twice that in terms of 7x combos.


he probably shouldn't even have a river jam range.

I don't see you posting in this forum often, but when you do.. boy do you make it count

Seems like a bunch of suited 7x wants to start donking turn along with some non-h os 7x - these hands miss a ton of value from 9x when turn goes x/x and to some extent from overpairs and draws that want to mix checking IP. Wouldn't read heavily into sizing since pop likely uses roughly this sizing irrelevant of river spr, but I'm not sure pop finds even close to as many bluffs as it should and in particularly at these lower stakes so I'd be inclined to weight this more toward value w/o reads. However, if I've correctly understood your observation of V and his tendency to take similar lines more frequently than he should and that variance is likely to dictate then I think this spot is somewhat closer than an equilibrium adjusted to pop reads analysis would suggest and would potentially tend to revert back to giving V a close to equilibrium donking range. We're never folding turn for obvious equity reasons, but when V uses this sizing otr (which he should with the vast majority of value hands that donk turn) then we hold possibly the very worst bluff catcher in our range? since we block a large amount of combos that bluff turn and V's river range is pretty value dense anyway, theoretically (but very likely only theoretically) barring a ton of combos that pop really very rarely gets here with, ie the suited low card straight draws that unblock all of V one h broadway type of hands.

Cliffs being that we really want to reserve our calling this type of villian line on super-wet boards to value hands only with the VERY least being something like Ahx having the nut flush blocker and some sdv, whilst particularly avoid using bluffcatchers that remotely block villian bluffs. Our combo (8hx in general) is probably the nut low. So nh

I put V on any full house or an Ace hoping you fold a chop. My guesstimate is 75% full house, 24% ace high. You would still have 34.4 BB's left otherwise if you lose you have about 12 BB's, and obviously if you win you'd have about 80 BB's.

I think this actually may be more of an ICM question. How well are you doing against your opponents, if they are overly aggressive like this then a call maybe warranted. If this is untypical play and you can chip up other ways then I would fold.

Folding is lower variance that usually equals smaller payouts, while calling I think is higher variance but can usual equal to higher payouts. So I think your question has a lot of merit, and a lot of insight to your answer would be how risk adverse you are.

Side note, I would have checked this flop. Why are you attempting to build a pot with a mediocre hand? There is not a lot V's hands that they are folding. So your just inflating the pot IMO for no apparent reason.

I'm this would be his post flop range. (99,77,AJs-A9s,A7s-A2s,KJs-K9s,K7s,Q9s+,Q7s,J9s+,J7s,T9s,T7s,97s,75s+,65s,54s ,ATo-A9o,A7o-A5o,K9o,Q9o,J9o+,T9o)

Sorry, I wanted to retract and update my last two paragraphs on my post. I'm not sure how, since there is no longer an edit button. In any event, this is what I wanted to say. (your hand is not mediocre, it's actually quite strong)

Side note, I would have checked this flop. There is not a lot V's hands that they are folding. After running the numbers you have a slight equity advantage but I still think your inflating the pot IMO. This would be his post flop range I put V on after you bet and he calls. (99,77,AJs-A9s,A7s-A2s,KJs-K9s,K7s,Q9s+,Q7s,J9s+,J7s,T9s,T7s,97s,75s+,65s,54s ,ATo-A9o,A7o-A5o,K9o,Q9o,J9o+,T9o)

Thanks for these posts. I bet my 88 with a draw because it is a pair that needs protection, and I'm happy to take the pot on the flop. I am planning to check back a lot of turns for pot control.

Meh, I am willing to bet that I have won more WSOP bracelets at the Rio than you and also have better results on Hendon Mob.

The flop bet was laying 3 to 1, with V's hand range that's an easy call. If you want protection you may consider betting more. IMO.

I don't think most Vs call the C-bet with just two overs there.

i think including v's username would prolly incite some more spot on answers unless hes a noob, which is plausible with this line. Really just not the board for any bluff combos to blast off with and any mid value hand is happily x/c, which leaves the hands that would x/c 579hh flop, imo I'd prefer to x/r as thats our best chance at stacking off and my x/c would be broadway floats w hearts, or 6,8x hh. But population are really under x/r on acr and so a lot of pair/straight draw, pair/fd, 2 pr and combos that he should be stoked to x/r I see called a lot, and then he turns trips, has good 9x, or already boated. And he sizes to bet jam, or just lucked out with the right turn size to jam. But if he called and lost I'd be shocked even with like Kh that he spazzed out with. Takes some balls to jam a double paired board into a player who cbet flop.

I dont think you need to cbet flop though vs bb as you should be getting x/r and that would be very obnoxious with your combo. Especially for 30%, if I did cb 88 it would likely be w/out a heart and I'd go 4bb or so

Oh in that case I take it back. Based on you probably having better results than me on Hendon mob, I can safely say that your input of "I don't see how this is not a call" was actually world class advice. Be careful though, since if you keep sharing such pearls then we're all going to a get a lot, lot better