Sitting 4th/15 and playing well, literally on bubble - 14 paid.

I ****ing bubbled as the title suggested, which 5min previous I did not think would be possible. My ICM awareness is usually pretty good but occasionally these situations crop up and I literally do not have a bloody clue if I am doing the right thing. Am I just being greedy and stupid here? Do I need to just lay down the set? I saw the opportunity to really dominate going into final stages of tournament.

Villain's min c-bet and then call of my raise can only suggest a cautious flush draw perhaps. I ultimately hoped he had 2 pair with a club or smaller set - horribly wrong.

The money isn't so important to me in this instance but I am trying to improve and would love to gauge opinion on what population does here.


PartyGaming - 8000/16000 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 202,218
UTG: 229,012
CO: 200,135
BTN: 1,094,406
Hero (SB): 470,290

5 players post ante of 2,000, Hero posts SB 8,000, BB posts BB 16,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 34,000) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, BTN calls 16,000, Hero raises to 64,000, fold, BTN calls 48,000

Flop: (154,000, 2 players) Q 2 9
Hero checks, BTN bets 16,000, Hero raises to 96,000, BTN calls 80,000

Turn: (346,000, 2 players) A
Hero checks, BTN bets 346,000, Hero calls 308,290

River: (962,580, 2 players) 8

BTN shows 3 4 (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 20%, Flop 24%, Turn 64%)
Hero mucks Q Q (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 80%, Flop 76%, Turn 36%)
BTN wins 1,000,290

Any reads on villain? What's the buyin?

I probably just lead the flop here, with this many draws on the board an aggressive villain will stay in with a piece and may even try to raise you off the hand, and you can get it in if that happens.

Buy in is $66, no reads on villain. I have in my head that as chip leader he will be trying to take advantage of bubble and possibly scare me off with the pot turn bet.

Would you have called as played?

I probably jam the turn if I take the flop line, and while I'd like to say I'd think about what I thought about the villain before making the call, I probably get it in pretty quickly. On the bubble I think it's fair to consider that he's trying to run you over some percentage of the time. Even in this scenario-- or any flush that isn't king-high-- you have 17 outs with one to come. You have less than 30BBs to start the hand so this isn't a deep-stacked scenario; if you're worried about the bubble, all the more reason to bet the flop and try to get it in then.

I try not to worry about the bubble too much, other than how I can exploit it, but I also probably bubble more than my fair share. Definitely reconsidering after making a stupid bluff on the bubble yesterday, to at least not do stuff like that.

i can try to run it in piosolver for you do you know what the shortest stack in play in at the point in the tourney if someone had like <5bb here on a diff table you could fold... probably not tho

Also if you take into account that you would have a lot of future EV gain at the FT then you can also say you have to take into account the EV gain of the short stacks at your table and how they are deviating from optimal play in which you can exploit

I like the BU sizing in this spot ott lol and i think thats the majority sizing the opp. should have here + some small 1/3 pot bets maybe, if you have any reads or notes on how the opp. plays you could probably even go with lighter hands here too i wouldn't be too worried about the spot either way

Since we have the Q, it’s impossible for him to have 2 pair with a club on this board. It’s also practically impossible for him to have 2 pair given we hold two queens. I suppose he could have A2 or A9 (obv without a club), but he’s prob raising any ace from the button in this situation. He’s also not going to min bet the flop with two pair (92s is the only possibility and that would be a weird hand to open limping from the button), so you have to assume (if you put him on 2 pair) that he hit an ace. That’s very unlikely.

He could open limp 22, I suppose, but also unlikely on the button and the bubble. He’s not open limping 99.

So what bluffs could he have? Maybe J10 with a club. Maybe K9x. He’s prob raising those preflop.

All that being said, this is just a cooler when you’re this shallow. I’m usually cbetting this flop, but I actually kinda like the check raise. I also like the turn check.

Cbet the flop, bet the turn. Easy call of turn shove. If you knew he had 4c3c, it would be easily cEV+ to call with 16 outs.

Villian's minbet in position on the flop is terrible, particularly since he did not intend to shove over the checkraise.

This seems like it is just a cooler. One thing to keep in mind, it is far better to get involved here with a real stack that can greatly increase your chance of winning. Doubling here is very valuable. If you had a much smaller stack, but could still comfortably cash, that would more dangerous as the value of doubling from 1/2 average to average isn't worth the chance of busting.

If you want to improve your game, I highly recommend Dara O'Kearney's new book on ICM

https://www.amazon.com/Endgame-Poker...s%2C208&sr=8-1

Thanks very much, the smallest stack was the CO across all tables as far as I am aware.

Very much appreciate the input gents. It is remarkably beneficial to air these hands! I actually bought Dara and Barry’s book last week! - needless to say the first couple of chapters were bed time reading last night.

My read based on the hand history is that Villain is a supreme donkey.

Look, the hand is a cooler and even if you think that a flush is a big part of his range, you still have outs.

The thing is, the way you played the hand, you told villain you have a big hand. Moreover, the way played, you also took out most of the flushes from your range.

So when he bets, he's got to be thinking you have overpair + and he's still betting. Given ICM, if you are disciplined enough, maybe you can find a fold. Maybe. I am not sure I would, I would have to be playing A+ game.

At this spot, holding the supreme nuts, it's tough to play this hand bad. Since outside the flush draw, the board is really dry and you are taking villain's calling outs, I would lean towards a check/call line, though the bubble does counsel towards fast playing your hand.

Regardless, don't sweat the hand. Maybe if you become a crusher, getting this spot right might be the difference between being great or good, but I bet you have many many many other leaks you can deal with first.

You should not fold the turn with so many outs. However, both players played this hand really badly, so IMO there are major leaks in this hand.

If it's a cEv spot in which you have a read that villain's range consist of mostly flushes, it's a close spot.

But if it's a bubble spot, you don't just need outs, you need very high equity to get it in. I don't know if it's just 50%, my guess it's higher than that.

EDIT: Yes, cEv wise is an easy call.

You cannot fold the turn because he does not always have the flush and the ICM issues of the bubble are less than those later on ITM.

Villain's range is heavily weighed towards flushes. I don't understand what later ICM pressure has to do with our hand now. Right now, ICM forces us to have more equity than needed in order to make cEv call.