Hello chaps,

Live prog-bounty tourney $200 (100/100), 50% bounty added to your own.

50 players, 8 left. 7 prizes.

3000/6000
Hero in BB with 87k
Average: 100k.
Two stacks at roughly 60k

Villain is chipleader with bout 250k, known lag and spewy. Middleeastern stereotype, thick gold chains, takes poker personal and every cr as an insult.


Fold to chipleader villain in CO who makes it 16k
Fold to hero with 46spades who calls.


flop: 3d 4h 3h

hero checks.
Villain bets 35k

Hero jams?

I basically reason here that we're ahead quite a large percentage of his range, and considering he'll also call us off with worse? Or is this simply disgusting?

Fold preflop. You don't really have a hand, position or stack in this situation. Villain may be an annoying human being, but that's not a good reason for getting involved in this hand.

As played, you wanted to induce action from Villain, given that you have TPWK . . . and you got it. So that commits you to keep going, no? You've ended up in a terribly high variance line if he's got 55+ or a heart draw with overcards, or anything -- really. And that's with you trying to make the best of a top-10% board, given your starting hand.

I can't exactly recommend a nittier post-flop line where you'd fold almost everything except flopped trips or a straight flush. But that would have preserved what's left of your stack. Save yourself the agony by letting this go preflop. And if you did manage to win this, it's a fine BBV post.

On the stone bubble, I believe ICM dictates folding pre (esp. to a 3X open).

With a bounty and him getting good odds, he's not folding to your c/r often. His bet size was effective in leveraging your entire stack. Personally, I don't think you are far ahead of much of his range. A paired board isn't good for your hand at all.

Yeah, trivial fold pre with 15 BB and on the stone bubble. Calling off too much out of position with 64s, with not enough depth to make the implied odds worth the call.

Yeah, I am not at all suggesting calling off here with 64s as standard. :P

However, If we assume our read is right...that villain is opening 30% here...prob more.
Given the bubble he's likely to try to (and should) abuse almost everyone at the table, especially in his position.

I believe my call is super-weak, since i'll be forced to check fold quite a lot of flops, unless I wanna stop n go, wich would prob. be better if we're looking to make a stand?

On this type of board texture though, I believe villain will continue with 100% of his range. Getting it in is really not a matter of making him fold, it's just getting it in where I think we're good most of the time even though high variance.

If he's opening 30 and continuing 100% after we check like we assume, we're ahead to about 75% of his hands, and really behind to 10% eq or less 25% of the time.

So yea...fold pre is obv.

But, as played, do you guys check-fold this flop?

So assuming V is opening 30% like you say -continuing 100% and always calling off - you have 62.5% equity and pot odds of something like 3:2 So the shove is profitable if ICM factor <1.56
it's hard to calculate this exactly but on the stone bubble mid stack vs bigstack I think it's pretty likely to be bigger than this - so yes as played check-fold. I don't think stop & go is any better. but yes don't call the raise in the first place

So hard to say fold pre with sooted 1- gapper... BUT...we really are looking to check ship cbets and this combo doesn't make strong enuf pairs. Even the draws u flop will not be strong enuf to check ship at the freq u want.

poker is dead?

Thanks goat and everyone! This cleared Up a few things.

Could you explain how you go through the process of calculating bubble factor in spots like these and how it helps you making a descision? Skickat från min Moto G (5S) Plus via Tapatalk

<3 Skickat från min Moto G (5S) Plus via Tapatalk

I'm just relying on the estimates from Kill everyone which is old but hopefully still reasonably accurate - they give estimate of 1.4-1.8 ( from memory) for the bubble of MTTs - but these are average bubble/ICM factors - it's higher as a mid stack against bigger stacks so I would guesstimate about 2 in this situation - this would mean we need 66% equity to be break even ( assuming no pot odds)
Does anyone have more recent sources / better ways of estimating?